Today’s slate of games features some struggling pitchers on the mound. While that will lead many bettors to back the MLB’s top sluggers, we’re going off the beaten path to find far more value. We’ll share the three lesser-known batters we’re backing with home run prop bets today below, along with why.
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| Best Home Run Props Today | FanDuel | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Jackson to Hit a Home Run | +730 | Baltimore Orioles 52% |
| Hunter Goodman to Hit a Home Run | +550 | New York Mets 57% |
| Ildemaro Vargas to Hit a Home Run | +410 | Arizona Diamondbacks 51% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on.
Jackson failed to live up to the hype as a prospect, but he finally managed to make his MLB debut with Baltimore late last season. The 26-year-old was a solid piece who brought some unexpected power (5 HR) and the ability to hit for average (.276). It was enough to earn him a starting spot in 2026, and he hasn’t looked back since.
The Orioles' second baseman started slow, but has been batting .303 with five home runs in April. Most of that success has come at home (1.140) and against left-handed pitching (1.197 OPS), which will both be in play tonight with Garrett Crochet (2-3, 7.88 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) on the mound for Boston.
After posting an incredible start to open the season, Crochet has completely lost his stuff. Over his last two starts, the lefty has only lasted a combined 6 ⅔ innings and allowed 15 earned runs, which includes four home runs. We know the young ace is better than he’s shown, but we don’t expect him to magically fix things tonight.
Crochet has faced Jackson three times, allowing a single and a double, as well as an RBI.
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You may not know Goodman’s name yet, but he broke onto the scene last season to make his first All-Star game. He managed to hit 31 home runs and bat .278 over 144 games. That success has continued into 2026, with the second-most home runs for the Rockies (6).
What’s most impressive about Goodman is that 22 of his last 37 home runs have come on the road. That is why we are backing him to go deep today, despite not being in the friendly confines of Coors Field.
Goodman and the Rockies will be facing Mets’ starter Kodai Senga (0-3, 8.83 ERA, 1.90 WHIP). The 33-year-old has been a very good starter since coming over from Japan, but he has looked awful over his previous two starts. He allowed a combined 13 earned runs and four home runs over 5 ⅔ innings. Senga is usually good at keeping the ball in the park, indicating that something is seriously off with the veteran.
Senga has gotten the better of Goodman in the past, but we believe the rising star will end that trend tonight.
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Our last home run prop involves a journeyman making big waves in Arizona. Ildemaro Vargas has been the Diamondbacks top hitter since making his season debut on March 30. He’s batting .357 with five home runs and a 1.046 OPS, and hasn’t shown any signs of cooling down. While we know this level of play can’t last, we are looking to cash in on his bat while it's still hot.
Padres starter German Marquez (2-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) has alternated between looking like a Cy Young winner and a guy destined for AAA. He delivered 10 ⅔ scoreless innings against the Angels and Pirates, but allowed eight runs and five home runs in his starts against the Rockies and Giants.
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