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Kenta Maeda is going to have a horrible afternoon. He has had a solid career since coming to the US, but injuries and age are beginning to show. Maeda posted a 4.66 ERA in 21 starts in 2021 before Tommy John surgery ended his season. It also cost him all of 2022, meaning he has been out of baseball for some time. He looked strong in his first start against the Marlins but was beaten up by the White Sox last week.
Maeda will now be facing a Red Sox team whose offense has finally gotten going. They are scoring more runs, led by slugger Rafael Devers. They are currently top ten in the league in home runs, RBIs, and runs. They were out-hit last night, but that was against s great young starter in Joe Ryan. Now, they’ll be ready t bounce back against an aging Maeda who may be on his way out of the league.
The Twins' offense has plenty of weapons, but they have not been able to generate runs consistently all season. They dominated Corey Kluber and the Sox bullpen yesterday, but they have failed to follow up on big scoring days so far this season. The Twins did face Tanner Houck last season and managed just two hits and zero runs over 5 ⅔ innings.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
This is one of the safest bets of the day, thanks to the pitching matchup. Both of these offenses have shown they can score, but runs will be at a premium with Patrick Sandoval and Nestor Cortes on the mound. All of the stats point to this being a low-scoring affair, so we are locked in on the under.
Sandoval has been one of the best pitchers in the league to open the season. The 26-year-old owns a 1-0 record with a 1.23 ERA over three starts. While he doesn’t strike many out, his ability to generate weak contact is a big reason he broke out last year with a 2.91 ERA. Sandoval faced the Yankees last season and picked up a win by holding New York to two runs over seven innings. We like his chances of repeating that today, especially since he posted 2.54 ERA on the road in 2022.
Cortes has been a great starting pitcher since re-joining the Yankees in 2021. He has posted an ERA under 3.00 each season and is tracking to keep that streak alive in 2023. Cortes has a 2-0 record with a 2.60 ERA to begin the year. He is coming off his best start of the season and has been doing a great job limiting hits. That will continue today as he faces an Angels team he dominated last season. Especially considering Cortes posted a 1.95 ERA at Yankee Stadium last season.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Something has not been right in San Diego this season, but that will change tonight as Fernando Tatis Jr. makes his return. I don’t count on him having a monster game, considering the length of his absence and how the game has changed since. However, I believe his return to this Padres dugout will be enough to finally spark the offense.
The Padres' offense will also benefit from having seen Arizona start Ryne Nelson once this season. They did well against him, registering six hits, three walks, and three earned runs over five innings. The Padres hit well against the Diamondbacks in both matchups this season (11 combined runs). This, along with the return of Tatis, is why I think the offense to come back to life today.
Another reason I love this bet is that Michael Wacha will be on the mound. The veteran is coming off a great season with the Red Sox and should be a crucial part of this rotation. He is coming off a brutal start, but it came against a Brewers team that is absolutely raking. Before that, he dominated the Braves over six innings allowing two hits, zero runs, and striking out ten on the road. Wacha was solid on the road last season and will have another quality start today.
Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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