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Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props September 29

Written by: Jay Sanin
Published September 29, 2023
13 min read
Best MLB Player Prop Bets Today September 29

Late in the Major League Baseball season, the focus is more on wins than individual performance. Still, there are several opportunities to find value in betting on individual performance via props. The following MLB prop bets are certainly worth taking a look at on Friday, as the final series of the regular season gets going.

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks

My Pick: Zac Gallen to record the win (+170 at PointsBet)

The first of our MLB prop bets for Friday night is for the Arizona Diamondbacks to get a win over the Houston Astros and for Zac Gallen to record the win in that game. Gallen has been dominant at home this season, and that trend should continue here, even against an explosive Houston Astros offense.

This season, Gallen has started 15 games at home, entering Friday night’s action. In those 15 starts, Gallen has gone 12-2 with a 2.45 ERA. When comparing that to his 5-6 record and 4.42 ERA in road games, it is clear that Gallen is much better at home than he is on the road, which should make a huge difference in this game at Chase Field.

While the Astros have a huge experience edge in this game, they do not have the pitching advantage in this contest. JP France is a respectable 11-6 with a 3.83 ERA in this game, but France is not on the level of Gallen given the fact that Gallen is pitching where he is at his best. Look for Gallen to get the Diamondbacks off to a strong start in this contest and for him to get the win when this game is in the books.

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals

My Pick: Carlos Rodon under 16.5 outs recorded (-125 at DraftKings)

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Carlos Rodon is on the mound for the New York Yankees on Friday night, as the Yankees take on the Kansas City Royals. In this game where the result is not significant for either team, we expect Rodon to record under 16.5 outs on the mound. Even if the Yankees do end up winning this game, there is very little reason to believe that Rodon will go deep into this contest.

So far this season, Rodon has gone 17 outs or more just four times in his 13 starts this year. His starts have not gone particularly well this season, as Rodon is 3-7 with an ERA of 5.74. In what will be his last start of the season, the Yankees are unlikely to want to risk injury with Rodon, as he missed a good chunk of this season, which was one of the many reasons the Yankees struggled this year.

Furthermore, this final series of the year will be a great chance for the Yankees to give more opportunities to their bullpen arms. It is entirely possible that the Yankees will want to see what they have with some seldom-used relievers. That will come at the expense of Rodon’s longevity on the mound, as he should max out at around five innings in this Friday night matchup in Kansas City.

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners

My Pick: Nathan Eovaldi over 4.5 hits allowed (+110 at DraftKings)

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The last of our MLB prop bets for Friday comes from the Pacific Northwest, where the Seattle Mariners will host the Texas Rangers. In that game, the pitching matchup is excellent, as Nathan Eovaldi faces off with Bryan Woo. But we like the Seattle Mariners lineup to stack up some hits against Eovaldi in this game and for Eovaldi to allow at least five hits in this huge game.

Since coming back from an injury in early September, Eovaldi has not looked quite as dominant as he did before he got hurt. He has allowed runs in four of his five starts since coming back from injury, and has not gone more than five innings in any of those starts. Eovaldi has also allowed four or more hits in three of his five starts since his return. We should see him continue to struggle here against a desperate Mariners squad.

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AUTHOR

Jay Sanin

186 Articles

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor and writer from New York. He has been handicapping since the moment he was old enough to gamble legally, with his specialties being niche sports like the WNBA and XFL. He’s been told he has a voice for radio. He also has a face for radio.

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