When you sign-up through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more >

Best NRFI Bets This Weekend, September 23-24

Written by: Michael Savio
Published September 23, 2023
13 min read
Astros vs Rangers September 05 2023

With just over a week remaining in the season, we have a weekend filled with matchups with playoff implications. Here, we look at the Friday MLB slate through the prism of the NRFI/YRFI betting market and determine which games will and will not feature first-inning scoring.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins - Brandon Woodruff (R) vs Jesus Luzardo (L)

My Pick: Under 0.5 Runs (-145 at PointsBet Sportsbook)

The Marlins will host the Brewers on Saturday as they continue their fight for an NL Wild Card spot. While the matchup features two offenses that have been on fire since the All-Star break, it will also have one of the best pitching matchups of the weekend. The game being played in Miami is also a reason we are locking this bet in. The Brewers batting average drops by over 12 points on the road, and the Marlins young starter’s ERA drops by a full two. Combine that with the Brewers having Woodruff on the mound, and you have a recipe for a quiet opening frame.

Speaking of Brandon Woodruff (5-1, 1.89 ERA), he has been elite since his return from a lengthy injury absence in August. In three September starts, Woodruff has allowed just one run on 11 hits across 22 innings (0.41 ERA). One of those starts was a complete game shutout against this same Marlins team. While that impressive start came at home, the veteran righty has been just as good away from Milwaukee, allowing just two runs over his last two road starts (13 innings). In addition, Woodruff has allowed a first-inning run just once in his ten starts.

Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.68 ERA) was hammered hard by Milwaukee earlier this month, but he has been fantastic for the Marlins in 2023. We think he’ll gain the upper hand against the Crew today because he will be at home, where he owns a 2.96 ERA (4.86 ERA on the road). We saw that in full effect earlier this month when the 25-year-old held the Dodgers to two runs on four hits across six innings. If he can do that to the Dodgers, he should have no problem keeping the Brewers’s bats quiet in the first inning this afternoon.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees - Zach Davies (R) vs Carlos Rodon (L)

My Pick: Over 0.5 Runs (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

🔥 Claimed by 99 people this week!

DraftKings

4.8/5

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly

21+ | T&Cs apply

This is the best YRFI bet of the weekend, and we are going to capitalize on it. One big reason for that is the Arizona offense, which has scored at least six runs in five of their previous six games. The lineup has gotten hot as they push for one of the NL’s Wild Card spots. Arizona has three teams within three games of them for the second spot, giving them plenty of reason to come out swinging tonight. 

The D-backs offense will have a great chance to bounce back tonight with Yankees’ starter Carlos Rodon (3-6, 5.90 ERA) on the bump. The veteran missed the first half of the season, and it has shown. Rodon has just two quality starts across 12 appearances, which came against the Pirates and Nationals. The worst of Rodon’s struggles have come at Yankee Stadium, where he owns a 6.59 ERA. The lefty has allowed a first-inning score in three of his previous five starts, thanks largely to opponents batting .274 against him the first time through the lineup. Look for him to get into trouble early tonight, leading to this bet being covered quickly.

While the Yankees offense has failed to live up to expectations in 2023, they will succeed tonight with Zach Davies (2-5, 6.81 ERA) on the mound for Arizona. As his stats show, the 30-year-old has not looked good in 2023. Opponents are batting .293 against Davies the first time they see him, which is an alarming stat to have when you are facing Aaron Judge and the top of this New York lineup.

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers - Logan Gilbert (R) vs Jordan Montgomery (L)

My Pick: Over 0.5 Runs (-120 at Caesars Sportsbook)

🔥 Claimed by 142 people this week!

Caesars

4.3/5

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

21+ | T&Cs Apply. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Our final bet comes from a crucial AL West title race matchup. The Rangers and Mariners are neck and neck with the Astros for the division lead, leading to some significant offensive surges. The Mariners' offense dipped a bit last week, but they scored at least 5 runs in their previous four games, while the Rangers have scored 29 runs over their previous three games. Tonight’s pitching matchup features two starters who have been struggling, and we think both offenses will take advantage of that early.

Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.77 ERA) has been excellent for Seattle this season but has been struggling in September. He owns a 4.50 ERA across four starts this month and allowed five runs on seven hits in his last start (5 innings). Gilbert has allowed a first-inning run to score in two of his previous three starts, and we see him adding to that against a Rangers team that has been punishing bad pitching all season. Being on the road in a game with playoff implications will pressure this young starter in an already difficult matchup and lead to some mistakes early on in this one.

Jordan Montgomery (9-11, 3.38 ERA) has been far better since being acquired by the Rangers at the deadline, but he has shown some cracks in August. That was on full display earlier this month when he allowed the A’s and Twins to tag him for a combined 11 runs on 15 hits over 9 ⅓ innings. He will face a much more formidable challenge tonight as he faces a Seattle lineup with Julio Rodriguez (.285 BA, 31 HR, 100 RBI, 36 SB) at the top.

Image for Michael Savio

AUTHOR

Michael Savio

423 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

More info on Michael Savio
We've been featured on:
espn logo
reuters logo
cbs-news logo
forbes logo
entrepreneur logo
entrepreneur logo
We only list licensed sportsbooks
WorldSportsNetwork
WorldSportsNetwork
WorldSportsNetwork
WorldSportsNetwork

© Rebel Penguin ApS 2024 (a subsidiary of Gaming Innovation Group Inc.)

We support responsible gambling. 21+ Only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.

WSN.com is run by iGaming Cloud Inc (a Gaming Innovation Group Subsidiary) and is registered with the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE) under affiliate vendor ID 89744, with the Indiana Gaming Commission (IGC) under certificate of registration number SWR-000148, approved by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board as a gaming service provider, under certificate registration number 117656-1, possesses a Vendor Minor sports betting license from the Colorado Limited Gaming Control Commission (account number 94414163), granted a vendor registration number VR007603-20-001 by the Michigan Gaming Control Board, an interim Sports Wagering Supplier license, under license number SWS 066, issued by the West Virginia Lottery Commission, a sports betting vendor registration, under registration number #100400, issued by the Director of Gaming Licensing and Investigations of the Virginia Lottery to operate in the State of Virginia, and a Vendor Registration issued by the Sports Wagering Committee of the Tennessee Education Lottery Corporation.

Advertising disclosure: WSN contains links to online retailers on its website. When people click on our affiliate links and make purchases, WSN earns a commission from our partners, including ESPN and various sportsbooks.