Best NRFI Bets Today: Phillies and Giants are Struggling

The Saturday slate is loaded with strong pitching matchups, giving us a prime opportunity to target NRFI bets.

Connelly Early will take the ball for the Red Sox, and he has been fantastic in 2026. I’m backing the NRFI in Red Sox vs. Astros, along with two other matchups on Saturday’s slate.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today.

Best NRFI Bets for Thursday, April 30

Odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, one of the best US sportsbooks. Sign up today with Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code WSNDYW and claim your welcome offer: Bet $1, Double Your Winnings 10x.

If you are in a state where BetMGM Sportsbook is not yet legal, we recommend trying Kalshi, one of the best prediction markets in the US. Sign up using Kalshi promo code WSN to get a $10 bonus after making 100 contracts.

Astros vs. Red Sox - Spencer Arrighetti vs. Connelly Early (4:10 PM EST)

The Red Sox took Game 1 of this series on Friday and now have a great chance to secure the series win on Saturday. However, Houston will counter with Spencer Arrighetti, who has been far more effective than Mike Burrows, who took the loss in the opener.

Under 0.5 Run (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

This matchup sets up well for a scoreless first inning, largely due to Spencer Arrighetti’s profile and the uncertainty surrounding Boston’s early-game approach. Arrighetti has been excellent this season, while the top of the Red Sox lineup has been underwhelming.

Early in games, hitters are still adjusting their timing, and Boston has tended to take longer than most teams to settle in. Arrighetti is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 18 innings, showing strong command and efficiency.

Connelly Early may not be a household name yet, but he is trending toward ace status in Boston. The Astros won’t have much familiarity with him, as they didn’t face him in the first series.

If Early can navigate around Yordan Alvarez, this game should remain scoreless through the first inning at Fenway Park.

Bet $1 at Caesars and Double Your Winnings 10x

Dodgers vs. Cardinals - Roki Sasaki vs. Michael McGreevy (7:15 PM EST)

The Dodgers are the best team in baseball, but they haven’t been producing early in games. While they can break out at any moment, this could be a tough opening matchup against Michael McGreevy.

Under 0.5 Run (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook

Roki Sasaki hasn’t quite looked like the dominant starter many expected this season. While there has been some speculation about a potential bullpen role, he remains in the rotation for now.

One consistent trend with Sasaki is his ability to dominate early before running into trouble later in games. He features an electric arsenal, highlighted by a powerful fastball that is difficult to square up the first time through the order.

Michael McGreevy has been solid this season, relying on command and pitch sequencing rather than overpowering velocity. That approach can be especially effective early in games. He enters this matchup at 1-2 with a 2.97 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP.

With Sasaki’s early dominance and McGreevy’s control, this game profiles as one that should feature a clean first inning.

Double Your Winnings at Caesars with Code WSNDYW

Mets vs Angels - Nolan McLean vs Reid Detmers (9:40 PM EST)

The New York Mets continue to struggle, but they have their ace on the mound in this matchup. Both offenses have been fairly average throughout the 2026 season.

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook

Nolan McLean brings a power arm to the mound, and his ability to generate strikeouts gives him a clear edge against the top of the Angels lineup. He has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this season.

McLean is 1-2 with a 2.55 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP, along with 45 strikeouts in 35.1 innings. He likely deserves a better record, but New York has failed to provide consistent run support.

Reid Detmers has quietly developed into a reliable starter with strong command and a deep pitch mix. While there were questions earlier in his career, he has made clear improvements.

Detmers owns a 1.10 WHIP, limiting baserunners and making him well-suited for NRFI bets. With two capable starters on the mound, this game is a strong candidate to stay scoreless in the first inning.

Use code WSNDYW at Caesars to Double Your Winnings

Best YRFI Bets Today

• Braves vs. Rockies - Chris Sale vs. Chase Dollander: This game is being played at altitude in Colorado, which always boosts offensive potential. While both pitchers are talented, the environment favors hitters. Additionally, the YRFI price is more favorable than usual due to the quality of the starting pitchers. That creates value on the “Yes Run First Inning” side in a game where conditions strongly support early scoring.
  

  Use code WSNDYW at Caesars to Double Your Winnings