Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Banking on Yordan Alvarez’s Slump Ending With a Bang on Thursday

After missing most of last year on the IL, Yordan Alvarez has propelled himself into the AL MVP conversation in 2026. His hot bat has been keeping the Astros offense afloat, and we are going to cash in on it tonight. We’ll share why we’re backing the slugger to go deep today, along with two other home run prop bets we love.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Thursday, May 14

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, May 14

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Andrew Vaughn Anytime Home Run (+610) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Brewers' first baseman came off the IL at the beginning of the month and is starting to settle in. Over his last nine at-bats, Vaughn has posted four hits, including a double and a home run. He’s also been drawing walks, showing he is seeing the ball well despite the time off.

We know Vaughn won’t replicate the surprise success he had after being traded to the Crew last season, but we’ve seen enough to trust his bat when playing at home. Last season, he posted a .320 average with six home runs and a .959 OPS over 103 at-bats at American Family Field. That’s made him a fan favorite and allows him to thrive in front of the hometown crowd.

Another reason to back Vaughn tonight is Griffin Canning (0-1, 6.74 ERA, 1.61 WHIP), who will be starting on the mound for the Padres. The 30-year-old was good in limited time for the Mets last season, but experienced five ugly seasons with the Angels before that. We’ve seen this version of Canning resurface over his first two starts, including last week when he allowed six runs over 4 ⅓ innings. 

Home runs have been a problem for Canning over his career, especially in 2024. That was the only season of his career where the righty started 30+ games, and he finished allowing a whopping 31 home runs.

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Yordan Alvarez Anytime Home Run (+280) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Astros may no longer be the World Series contenders they once were, but Yordan Alvarez is doing something special in Houston this season. The 28-year-old has been one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball once again, batting .308 with 13 home runs (5th most in MLB) and a 1.026 OPS. 

While Alvarez has been slowing down in May, we know that won’t last. Despite struggling with injuries, the slugger has hit 31+ home runs in each season in which he’s played 100+ games. Hios .297 career average also shows his impressive plate discipline, making it unlikely his slump will last much longer. 

We see the DH’s bat getting hot against tonight largely due to Mariners starter Luis Castillo (0-4, 6.57 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) being on the mound. The aging ace has been bad to start 2026, and is surrendering home runs at an uncharacteristic rate. That includes his last start, where he surrendered two runs over four innings.

Alvarez has always hit Castillo well, even during his prime. Over 22 at-bats, the big man owns a .455 average, 1.545 OPS, and four home runs. 

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Jordan Walker Anytime Home Run (+310) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The 23-year-old continues to prove his hot start is no fluke. Walker has been the Cardinal’s top hitter, leading the team by batting .298 with 11 home runs and 30 RBIs. 

While he only has two home runs over the first 12 days of May, his bat remains hot. The righty is batting .343 average and 1.801 OPS to start the month, giving us confidence he’ll be sending more balls over the fence soon.

Walker will be facing A’s starter Jacob Lopez (3-2, 6.11 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) to start today’s game. The lefty broke out to become a solid piece of the rotation over 17 starts. However, we have yet to see him look like that pitcher in 2026. While he managed to pick up a win in his last start, he still surrendered two home runs over 5 ⅓ innings. It was the second consecutive start in which he allowed two home runs, a trend that will continue tonight.

Walker has not faced Lopez before, but owns an impressive .974 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.

Once Lopez exits the game, he’ll be turning things over to an A’s bullpen that owns a 4.67 ERA on the season.

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