Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Going Off the Beaten Path on Saturday

There are a ton of great home run prop bets on the board today, but we are going off the beaten path. Instead, we’re locking in on little-known players who have been making waves early on in 2026. We’ll share all three of our home run predictions below, along with an explanation for why we love each.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Saturday, May 23

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Home Run Picks for Saturday, May 23

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Jake Bauers Anytime Home Run (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Don’t look now, but Jake Bauers has become one of the offensive leaders for the NL-Central, leading the Milwaukee Brewers. He leads the team in home runs (7) and RBIs (29) heading into the series against the Dodgers, despite splitting time at first base with Andrew Vaughn. That role has expanded with Bauers' impressive play, landing him more time in the DH role when Vaughn’s starting at first base.

The slugger has also thrived when played at American Family Field, where he owns a .979 OPS, .613 slugging percentage, and has hit six of his seven home runs. 

On top of playing at home, Bauers will also be facing one of the erratic pitchers in the league in 2026. LA starter Roki Sasaki (2-3, 4.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) has been showing his youth and has allowed nine home runs over his last seven starts. While he has looked sharper in May, he’s still allowing too many baserunners, showing his control still needs work.

Bauers has faced Sasaki just once, smacking a double off the 24-year-old. 

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Jordan Walker (Game 1) Anytime Home Run (+410) at FanDuel Sportsbook

We originally had this bet slated for today, but that game was postponed to today due to the weather. Note that this bet is specifically for the first game of the doubleheader between the Cardinals and Reds.

Jordan Walker continues to impress early on in 2026. He is batting .295 and leads the team with 13 home runs, including four in May alone. While he’s still young, it certainly feels like the outfielder will be the centerpiece the Cardinals build around for years to come.

Walker’s impressive start has made him a popular home run bet, but there’s a reason why we are taking him tonight: Chris Paddack (0-5, 7.07 ERA, 1.63 WHIP). The righty starter was horrible for the Marlins to start the season, before being traded to the Reds. While he looked far sharper in his debut, his career numbers suggest that won’t last.

Once Paddack exits the game, he’ll turn things over to a Reds bullpen that owns the fifth-highest ERA (4.98) and allowed the second-most home runs (29) in the league.

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Casey Schmitt Anytime Home Run (+610) at FanDuel Sportsbook

You may not know the Giants' DH’s name, but Casey Schmitt has been fantastic for the team in 2026. He’s batting .293 and leads the team with nine home runs and 22 RBIs. That’s impressive, given the roster also includes sluggers like Rafael Devers and Willy Adames. It’s earned him the third spot in the order, where he is seeing better pitchers with bigger bats lurking behind him.

Schmitt has played well all season, but has been especially hot over the last week. He’s batting .391 with three home runs. We expect that to continue tonight as he faces some bad pitching from Chicago tonight.

The White Sox will have Erick Fedde (0-4, 4.30 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) on the mound to start tonight. The veteran has never been a top-end starter, but he has kept the ball in the park. However, that has changed recently. Over his last four outings (19 ⅔ innings), he’s surrendered 12 home runs. 

Once Fedde leaves the game, Schmitt will face a White Sox bullpen that ranks in the bottom ten in ERA (4.63) and home runs allowed (26). 

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