Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Crazy Pitcher-Hitter Histories Produce Tuesday’s Home Run Targets

A hitter’s past performance against the starting pitcher they’re facing is just one factor we use to find targets for home run props. But on Tuesday, that was the driving force. We found players who have absolutely insane numbers against the pitcher they’re facing on Tuesday.

Based primarily on those histories, we had to take a chance on those players.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Tuesday, May 26

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Home Run Picks for Tuesday, May 26

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Shohei Ohtani Anytime Home Run (+245) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Admittedly, there are reasons to start losing faith in Ohtani as a home run target. His eight home runs are far less than anyone expected him to have in late May. But facing Kyle Freeland on Tuesday outweighs all of that, as Ohtani is 7 for 11 with two home runs in his career against Freeland.

It also helps that Freeland is having another disastrous season for the Rockies. The lefty has a 7.04 ERA, while giving up nine home runs in just 38.1 innings. If he had more innings pitched, he’d surely be among the league leaders in home runs allowed. While most of those home runs have been hit by right-handed hitters, we know that Ohtani has no trouble taking southpaws deep.

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Ketel Marte Anytime Home Run (+490) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Marte and the Diamondbacks are set to face Tyler Mahle on Tuesday. On top of having a 6.10 ERA, Mahle has given up 10 home runs this season, which is among the highest totals in baseball. He’s also had a world of trouble getting Marte out, as the switch-hitter is 8 for 12 with three doubles and two home runs. That means Marte has an OPS of 2.109 when facing Mahle, which is crazy, even in just 12 at-bats.

On top of that incredible track record against Mahle, Marte is one of MLB’s hottest hitters at the moment. He’s coming off a four-hit game on Monday, extending his hitting streak to nine games. During that streak, he has seven multi-hit games and three home runs. Everything is clicking for Marte right now, and on Tuesday, he gets to face a pitcher he’s absolutely owned. 

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Trent Grisham Anytime Home Run (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With his .192 batting average, Grisham is easy to overlook as a home run target. But not if he and the Yankees are facing Bailey Falter. While he only has five career at-bats against Falter, Grisham has a hit in all five of those at-bats, including three home runs. Even in a small sample size, that’s a phenomenal track record, making Grisham a worthwhile home run target.

Plus, despite going 0 for 4 on Monday, Grisham has been moving in the right direction lately. He’s 6 for 13 with three extra-base hits over his last four games, so he’s coming around. Falter also owns a 9.82 ERA on the season, making it less likely that he’ll magically discover how to get Grisham out.

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Casey Schmitt Anytime Home Run (+590) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Regardless of the pitching matchup, Schmitt makes sense as a home run target who has great value. He has three home runs in his last five games and five in his last nine games, going 14 for 38 (.368) during that stretch. Just in his last three games, Schmitt is 5 for 12 with two doubles and two home runs, so he’s red-hot at the moment.

The kicker is that he’s facing lefty Eduardo Rodriguez on Tuesday. While the sample size is small, Schmitt is 3 for 5 with a home run in his career against Rodriguez. He’s also batting .373 with a slugging percentage of .569 against lefties this season. While Rodriguez has put together a great season, Schmitt’s history against him, recent hot streak, and propensity for hammering lefties make him a great home run target on Tuesday.

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