Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Pitcher-Hitter Histories Point Us Toward Tuesday’s Targets

When it comes to home run props, the history between a batter and the starting pitcher they’re facing plays a key role. For Tuesday, that history is playing a bigger role than usual. We happened to find four hitters who have a great track record against the opposing team’s starter. Most of these hitters are swinging a hot bat at the moment, so we couldn’t resist targeting them for our home run props.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Tuesday, June 9

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Home Run Picks for Tuesday, June 9

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Randy Arozarena Anytime Home Run (+440) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Power-wise, Arozarena has been a disappointment this season, hitting just six home runs. But he’s swinging a hot bat at the moment, which makes us think that a home run is on the horizon. Arozarena is fresh off a three-hit game on Monday, which means he’s now 7 for 14 with two doubles over his last four games.

Monday’s pitching matchup also makes us believe in Arozarena, who faces Trevor Rogers of the Orioles. Arozarena is 3 for 9 with two home runs in his career against Rogers. Right-handed hitters are slugging .512 against Rogers this year. That should play right into Arozarena’s hands, making him a good target.

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Marcell Ozuna Anytime Home Run (+520) at FanDuel Sportsbook

This has been a disaster of a season for Ozuna, who is still batting under .200 with just five home runs. However, he and the Pirates have the benefit of facing Eric Lauer on Monday. Ozuna is 6 for 11 with three home runs in his career against Lauer, and that track record can’t be ignored.

On top of that, Lauer is having a dreadful 2026 campaign, as he was recently dropped by the Blue Jays, only to be picked up by the Dodgers. The lefty has given up 13 home runs in just 47 innings of work, with right-handed hitters responsible for 10 of those 13 home runs. Given Ozuna’s track record against Lauer, he’s worth taking a chance on because of how bad Lauer has been this year.

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Willson Contreras Anytime Home Run (+410) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Nick Martinez has been outstanding this season, but he’s in a vulnerable spot Tuesday against Contreras and the Red Sox. He’s fresh off his worst start of the season, giving up six runs on nine hits over four innings, including a pair of home runs. Martinez now faces a Boston lineup full of hitters who have given him trouble in the past, as the Red Sox are hitting a combined .328 against him with a .500 slugging percentage.

Naturally, Contreras has been a big part of that, going 3 for 7 with a home run in his career against Martinez. While that’s a small sample size, don’t forget that Contreras already has 13 home runs this season, which leads the team. He’s also been crushing it lately, going 8 for 15 with two home runs and three doubles in his last five games. That makes him a good target, especially given his history against Martinez.

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Ronald Acuna Jr. Anytime Home Run (+370) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Acuna finally found himself at the end of May, hitting five home runs in a four-game stretch. While he’s yet to hit his first home run in June, he’s continued to swing a hot bat, going 6 for 20 over his last five games. Acuna brings that hot bat into Tuesday’s series opener against Erick Fedde, who has been one of the most homer-prone pitchers in baseball this season.

Fedde escaped his last start without giving up a long ball, but he’s still allowed 13 home runs in 58.1 innings this season. If history is any indicator, Acuna is one of the last hitters Fedde wants to see right now. Acuna is 6 for 19 against Fedde, with half of those six hits being home runs. For whatever reason, Acuna has Fedde’s number, and we’ll take a chance on that being the case again on Tuesday.

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