Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: A Trio of Stars Headline Friday’s Games

Baseball’s biggest stars will be in action today, with some mediocre starters slated to take the mound. That means we have a ton of tempting home run prop bets on the board, but three established stars have matchups that make them stand out among the rest. 

Below, we’ll share a trio of players we’re locking in for our home run predictions, along with why we love each.

For more daily MLB coverage, check our selection of the Best NRFI Bets Today.

Best Home Run Predictions for Friday, June 12

Odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for a FanDuel account and claim your bonus: Get $350 in Bonus Bets – Guaranteed when you bet $5 every day for 7 days. Read more about this offer in our FanDuel Promo Code overview.

If you are in a state where FanDuel is not yet legal, we recommend trying Kalshi, one of the best prediction markets in the US. Sign up using Kalshi promo code WSN to get a $10 bonus after making 100 contracts.

Home Run Picks for Friday, June 12

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Jackson Chourio Anytime Home Run (+390) at FanDuel Sportsbook

A quick trip to Sin City appears to have sparked Jackson Chourio’s home run stroke. The young star missed the first month of the season with a hand injury and had been unable to register much power. That has now changed in June, with Chourio registering four home runs and a .343 batting average.

While Chourio has only managed 21 long balls in each of his first two seasons, we blame injuries and a slow start for most of that. When he’s confident and comfortable on the field, we’ve seen the star produce at an MVP level, like he’s been doing over the last week.

Chourio will be facing a struggling rookie pitcher on the mound for the Phillies. Andrew Painter (1-7, 6.21 ERA, 1.57 WHIP). Philadelphia’s top prospect has yet to adjust to the big league level, and home runs are a big reason why. The righty only allowed two over his first four starts, but has allowed nine over his last seven (29 1/3 innings). 

Painter has been especially bad on the road, where opponents are batting .356 with five home runs over 23 innings.

Bet $5 Daily at FanDuel, Get $350 in Bonus Bets

Randy Arozarena Anytime Home Run (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Mariners are on the road for tonight’s game, which has us expecting a big night from Arozarena. The veteran has been elite away from Seattle, batting .354 with a .959 OPS.

He’s also been getting better as the season goes on, batting .324 to begin June. While his power has been down, he broke a drought by registering a home run against the Orioles earlier this week. 

One big reason we like Arozarena to go deep tonight is Washington starter Zack Littell (6-4, 4.76 ERA, 1.31 WHIP). His former teammate had a brutal start to the season, but has looked far better over the last month. His ERA is coming down fast, but we still aren’t sold.

Despite his improved play, the righty’s 15 home runs allowed put him in the bottom ten of the league among starters. He allowed a whopping 36 last season, leading us to believe his recent improvement won’t last.

Another factor in Arozarena’s favor is Nationals Park, where tonight's game will be played. The stadium has seen 132 home runs already this season, which is the second-most in the league. That’s partly why three starters, including Little, have allowed 15+ home runs this year. It’s also why the bullpen has allowed a league-high 48 home runs. 

Score $50 in Bonus Bets Every Day for 7 Days at FanDuel

Corbin Carroll Anytime Home Run (+430) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Diamondbacks star is frustratingly streaky, but we believe the table is set for Corbin Carroll to go deep tonight.

One reason for that belief is his recent play, with four home runs over his last nine games. It’s a positive sign after only going deep three times in May. Considering he hit 31 home runs over 143 games last season, we expect his home run total to continue to tick up.

Another big reason to back Carroll to go deep tonight is his stats against southpaws, like he’ll face tonight. The 25-year-old is batting .410 with a 1.152 OPS in 78 at-bats against lefties this season. With tonight’s game coming in one of the most home run-friendly parks in baseball, we expect that success to continue.

The left-handed pitcher taking the mound for the Reds is Nick Lodolo (2-1, 5.51 ERA, 147 WHIP). He broke out to have his best season in 2025, but he hasn’t looked anywhere close to that this year. While it appeared he was turning things around at the end of May, he allowed four runs on ten hits over five innings. He has now given up eight home runs over six starts. 

Lodolo has struggled against left-handed hitting, with opponents batting .364 with a .979 OPS.

Bet $5 at FanDuel and Lock In Your $350 Bonus