Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Tonight is the Night to Back Guerrero in Toronto

For Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto’s run to the 2025 World Series must feel like a lifetime ago. The superstar is currently in the midst of the worst offensive season of his career, with most of his struggles coming at home. That’s led him to hit just four home runs this season, all of which were on the road.

Below, we’ll share why we are betting on Guerrero to deliver his first home run in Toronto tonight. We’ll also provide two other home run predictions we love!

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Best Home Run Predictions for Friday, June 26

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Home Run Picks for Friday, June 26

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Anytime Home Run (+450) at FanDuel Sportsbook

There is a good reason for the odds being so favorable for this home run prop bet. 

A year after leading Toronto to the World Series, Vladimir Guerrero Jr is having the worst offensive season of his career. The 27-year-old has four home runs and a brutal .363 slugging percentage. None of those long balls have come at home, which is where tonight’s game will be.

The reason we’re looking past the first baseman’s brutal start is twofold. The first part is his career numbers, which show a lower OPS at home, but not a large drop in home runs. In fact, he actually had more at home during his impressive 2025 campaign. 

The second part is Rangers’ starter Nathan Eovaldi (.277, 4 HR, 32 RBI), who will be on the mound tonight. The veteran righty seemed to be getting hot in May, but has posted a 5.11 ERA with four home runs allowed in June (24 ⅔ innings). Despite a long career of limiting long balls, Eovaldi has already surrendered 17 this season, putting him on pace to easily surpass his career high of 23.

Eovaldi’s struggles are good news for Guerrero, who has dominated their previous matchups when the pitcher was at his best. In 27 at-bats, the Jays’ superstar has posted a .444 average with four home runs.

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Jac Caglianone Anytime Home Run (+400) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Royals’ breakout star is coming off a tough couple of games, but remains one of the hottest hitters in June. He’s batting .337 with nine home runs and 19 RBIs, helping the Royals navigate an injury to Bobby Witt Jr., with a very favorable matchup on the mound.

The White Sox will be sending rookie David Sandlin (1-1, 8.10 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) out to start against the Royals. After a stellar debut against the Twins, the righty has been lit up in his next two starts, going 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA over 7 ⅓ innings. He allowed three home runs during that span.

One reason for Sandlin’s struggles is his difficulty beating left-handed hitters like Caglianone. Teams have loaded their lineups with lefties against the 25-year-old. The strategy has paid off, with those batters posting a .323 average, three home runs, and a 1.062 OPS over 31 at-bats.

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Gunnar Henderson Anytime Home Run (+560) at FanDuel Sportsbook

This isn’t the safe bet that it used to be, but Gunnar has rediscovered his power in a big way this season. After finishing 2025 with just 17, he’s already posted 16 this season, putting him on pace to meet or surpass his career high if 16.

The reason we like his chances to deep tonight is his opponent: the Washington Nationals.

Washington will send reliever/spot starter Andrew Alvarez (1-0, 3.34 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) to start this one. The lefty has been solid in his role for the Nats, but he has stumbled against left-handed hitting. Southpaws are batting .316 against Alvarez this season, with 12 hits, including a home run, a triple, and a double.

However, we aren’t backing Henderson solely because of Alvarez. The pitcher only goes about four innings when pitching well, meaning the game will be turned over to Washington’s bullpen early. That’s good news for Gunnar, as the unit ranks 26th in ERA (4.90) and has posted ten more home runs (59) than any other MLB bullpen.

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