Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: It's a Great Day to Back Greene

Don’t look now, but the Detroit Tigers are starting to get hot. They have won seven of their last ten games, and Riley Greene is a big reason why. While the veteran outfielder continues to struggle against southpaws, he remains elite when facing righties like the one he’ll see on the mound tonight.

Below, we’ll share why we expect Greene to stay hot tonight, along with two other home run predictions we love.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Friday, July 10

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Home Run Picks for Friday, July 10

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Riley Greene Anytime Home Run (+340) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While Greene has historically struggled against southpaws, he’s been elite against righties in 2026. He’s batting .308 with 11 home runs against right-handed starters, posting an impressive .504 slugging percentage. That is a good sign as he prepares to face one to start tonight’s game.

The Phillies will be trotting veteran Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.87 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) out to the mound tonight. The 33-year-old is coming off a brutal June, where he went 0-1 with a 6.67 ERA and nine home runs allowed over 28 1/3 innings. While he was better in his first start of July, that came against a lackluster Royals lineup.

We also are considering Greene’s play in July, as his bat has been scorching hot. He’s posted a 1.147 OPS with two home runs and eight RBIs over his first seven games.

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Sal Stewart Anytime Home Run (+330) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Reds’ young first baseman is having an impressive rookie campaign, and has already hit 19 home runs. While his power dipped in May and June (7 combined HR), that changed late last month. Over his last 11 games, Sal Stewart has gone deep five times. With a favorable pitching matchup on deck at home tonight, we expect his power resurgence to continue.

A big reason why we’re backing Stewart today is Cubs’ starter Shota Imanaga (5-7, 4.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). After posting an incredible April, the lefty has gone 3-5 with a 4.98 ERA and 18 home runs allowed over 12 starts.

Even if Imanaga snaps out of his extended slump tonight, we still give Stewart the advantage. The first baseman owns a .930 OPS and .542 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching and has taken the starter deep once in their three previous meetings.

While Chicago’s bullpen ranks around the middle of the league in ERA (4.10), they have allowed a whopping 58 home runs, the second-highest total among MLB bullpens this season.

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Miguel Vargas Anytime Home Run (+320) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The only reason the White Sox remain in the mix in the AL Central is Miguel Vargas's breakout season. He ranks in the top 25 of the league with 20 home runs and 56 RBIs, helping power Chicago’s lineup as it awaits the return of Munetaka Murakami. 

Vargas has been especially impressive at home in 2026, posting a .916 OPS and registering 11 of his 20 long balls. While his average has begun to drop drastically in July, the stage is set for him to end that slump tonight.

The A’s will have Aaron Civale (5-6, 5.10 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) starting against the White Sox. He’s having a brutal 2026 campaign and isn’t showing signs of turning things around. Over his last six starts, Civale has gone 0-5 with a 9.47 ERA and ten home runs allowed (27 ⅔ innings). 

Vargas has faced Civale just four times and posted two hits, one of which was a home run. 

The Athletics’ bullpen’s season stats are ugly, with a 5.03 ERA and 52 home runs allowed. While those numbers are partly inflated by playing some games in Las Vegas, this unit has struggled regardless of where they pitch.

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