Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Making Money Off Manny Machado’s Hot Bat

Manny Machado scuffled badly at the plate for the first few months of the 2026 season, but that’s changed over the last few weeks. The veteran slugger has seen his average and OBP rapidly rise, resulting in an uptick in home runs. Below, we’ll share why we like that trend to continue today, along with two other home run predictions we love!

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Best Home Run Predictions for Friday, July 17

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Home Run Picks for Friday, July 17

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on.

Kody Clemens Anytime Home Run () at FanDuel Sportsbook

Our first prediction is a bit of a long shot: Kody Clemens. The Twins’ first baseman has 16 home runs and a .243 average on the season, and is on pace to see new career-highs for both categories. While he entered a mini-slump at the plate before the All-Star break, he has registered three home runs to start July. 

The reason why we’re backing Clemens tonight is Cubs’ starter Colin Rea (7-5, 4.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). After a strong 2025 season in Chicago, Rea has been unable to capture the same magic. While his struggles have mostly come on the road, it's hard to imagine that success lasting.

Clemens has faced Rea five times and has just one hit, which was a home run.

This is a longshot bet for tonight, but we believe the stage is set for it to pay off.

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Manny Machado Anytime Home Run (+340) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Manny Machado’s batting average is finally over the Mendoza Line (.203) after getting hot at the end of June. Over his last 14 games, he’s batting .314 with five home runs and 12 RBIs. He went into the break with multi-hit games in three of his last four games, showing his hot bat remains alive and well.

We like Machado to go deep tonight partly due to Seth Lugo (3-6, 4.56 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) being on the mound for the Royals. The 36-year-old has been showing his age in 2026, showing last season’s regression wasn’t a fluke. While he started the season strong, the righty is 2-5 with a 5.64 ERA and 14 home runs allowed since May 1 (67 innings). 

Once Lugo exits the game, he’ll hand things over to one of the league’s worst bullpens. They own the league’s highest ERA (5.33) and rank in the bottom five in home runs allowed (55). That means Machado will see plenty of chances to go deep, making him one of our favorite home run prop bets for today.

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Mickey Moniak Anytime Home Run (+240) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Aside from a brief slump after returning from the IL in June, Moniak is having an All-Star-worthy campaign in 2026. We entered the break batting .361 with a 1.024 OPS in July, despite playing the majority of those games away from hitter-friendly Coors Field. Despite the brief stint on the IL, the outfielder’s 15 home runs still have him on pace to easily surpass his career-high of 24.

Moniak’s success has mostly come at home, where he’ll be playing tonight. He owns a .314 average with 12 home runs and a 1.080 OPS in Colorado this season

The Reds will have Brady Singer (3-9, 4.72 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) starting tonight. The veteran righty is having one of the worst campaigns of his career, partly due to his struggles to prevent home runs, allowing 20 so far. While he’s been better in June and July, Singer continues to struggle to miss bats. 

The Reds’ starter has also struggled when on the road this season. He’s 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA over nine starts, allowing 10 home runs.

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