Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Hitter-Pitcher Matchups Fuel Wednesday’s Home Run Targets

Pitcher-hitter matchups always play a key role in making home run props, with Wednesday being a great example. For starters, we’ve found a few vulnerable pitchers. But we’ve also found hitters who may not stand out on the surface but who have an impressive history against the starting pitcher they’ll face on Wednesday. That has allowed us to find great value and feel confident in our picks.

For more daily MLB coverage, check our selection of the Best NRFI Bets Today.

Best Home Run Predictions for Wednesday, July 29

Odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for a FanDuel account and claim your bonus: Bet $5, Get up to $1,000 in Bet Resets. Read more about this offer in our FanDuel Promo Code overview.

If you are in a state where FanDuel is not yet legal, we recommend trying Kalshi, one of the best prediction markets in the US. Use Kalshi promo code WSN to sign up, trade $25, and get up to $500.

Home Run Picks for Wednesday, July 29

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Daulton Varsho Anytime Home Run (+400) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While Varsho has just seven home runs this year, Wednesday is a good time to take a chance on him. With seven hits in his last five games, he’s found a nice groove at the plate lately. Varsho and the Blue Jays also have the benefit of facing Zack Littell, who has allowed 25 home runs this year. Only two pitchers have allowed more long balls in 2026.

Littell has allowed at least one home run in six of his last eight starts, so it makes sense to target someone in Toronto’s lineup. Why is Varsho and his seven home runs the best option? It’s because Varsho is 5 for 11 with two home runs in his career against Littell. Left-handed hitters are also slugging .559 against Littell, making this a great matchup for Varsho.

Bet $5, Get up to $1,000 in Bet Resets at FanDuel

Kyle Manzardo Anytime Home Run (+265) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Manzardo and the Guardians are facing Brady Singer on Wednesday. Similar to Littell, Singer is among the league leaders in home runs allowed. He’s given up 21 home runs in just 103.1 innings. Also like Littell, lefties have done a ton of damage against him, hitting 15 of those 21 home runs, slugging .516 against him.

With Jose Ramirez slumping, Manzardo looks like Cleveland’s best left-handed power hitter right now. While he’s had his own struggles lately, Manzardo has two home runs in his last six games. The kicker is that he’s 6 for 9 with three doubles and a home run in his career against Littell. Given that history, it’s hard not to take a chance on Manzardo.

Wager $5 and Unlock up to $1,000 in Bet Resets at FanDuel

Pete Crow-Armstrong Anytime Home Run (+390) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Crow-Armstrong also has an impressive history against the pitcher he’s facing on Wednesday. Granted, it’s a small sample size, with Chicago’s center fielder going 3 for 3 with a double and a home run against St. Louis starter Dustin May. Three at-bats is the smallest of samples, but since it’s a perfect sample, Crow-Armstrong is worth the chance.

Keep in mind that Crow-Armstrong has 23 home runs on the season, so he’s already Chicago’s best home run target on any given day. He also has seven hits in his last five games, six of which have gone for extra bases, including two home runs. Not only does he have a good history against May, but this is a time to strike while the iron is hot with Crow-Armstrong.

lace a $5 Bet and Get Covered with up to $1,000 in Resets

Jeremy Pena Anytime Home Run (+520) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Grayson Rodriguez of the Angels is becoming one of those pitchers to take advantage of with home run props. He currently has an 8.54 ERA, giving up seven home runs in 39 innings of work. Rodriguez has thrown just eight innings across his last two starts, giving up three home runs, so the problem is getting worse.

As for Pena, he’s only 2 for 6 with no extra-base hits in his career against Rodriguez. But he is also raging hot since coming off the IL. Pena has a 10-game hitting streak and has at least one hit in 12 of the 13 games he’s played in July. He has five home runs in his last eight games and 13 hits in his last six games, making now a perfect time to target Pena.

$5 Bet Gets You up to $1,000 in First-Bet Resets at FanDuel