Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Cashing in On Jake Irvin’s Return

The Washington Nationals will be getting Jake Irvin back from the IL tonight, which is good news for a loaded Atlanta lineup. The starter allowed the most home runs in baseball last season, and was in the midst of another underwhelming campaign before his injury. Now he’ll be making his first start in over two months, with one of the worst bullpens in baseball behind him.

Below, we’ll share which Braves slugger we’re backing to take Irvin deep tonight. We’ll also share our favorite home run predictions from two other games.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Thursday, July 30

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, July 30

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on.

Salvador Perez Anytime Home Run (+390) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Royals catcher has been unable to duplicate his impressive 2025 stats, but he has finally begun to heat up in July. He’s batting .257 with five home runs and a .527 SLG% so far this month. While these aren’t monster power numbers, his jump in batting average shows the veteran is seeing the ball well, which puts him in consideration for a home run prop bet tonight.

One big reason for backing Perez is Twins starter Bailey Ober (7-3, 4.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). The 31-year-old is struggling badly for the second consecutive season. While he has delivered some dazzling performances, he has also had more forgettable ones. That includes his last start, where he allowed the Guardians to score four runs on eight hits over four innings. 

Perez and Ober have met 30 times over their careers, with the catcher posting two home runs and a .533 SLG%.

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Matt Olson Anytime Home Run (+240) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Matt Olson has seen his batting average drop in July, but that hasn’t prevented him from hitting seven home runs. The slugger leads the team with 28 on the season, and ranks among the top ten in the category. That makes him a fairly common option for home run prop bets, but we believe there is extra reason to back him tonight.

The Nationals will be sending Jake Irvin (2-4, 5.23 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) to the mound for his first start since returning from the 60-day IL. The 29-year-old’s last start before the injury was a dazzling no-hit performance against the Braves, but that was back on May 23. Given the injury and the Braves' impressive play, don’t count on a repeat performance today. 

Irvin also has a history of struggling to keep the ball in the park. He led all pitchers with 38 home runs allowed in 2025, making him one of the best pitchers to bet against when placing home run prop bets.

If that isn’t enough reason to back Olson, then consider that Washington’s bullpen has allowed the most home runs in the league (76). The next closest team has surrendered 67.

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Dominic Canzone Anytime Home Run (+400) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Mariners DH continues to offer solid production and has already smashed his previous career high with 18 home runs in 2026. While his average has been dropping this month, that has begun to change over the last few days. That includes the first game of this series against the Dodgers, where he homered twice. 

Canzone isn’t normally a player we look at for home run predictions, but LA starter Roki Sasaki (4-5, 4.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) has us locking him in today.

Sasaki is coming off three strong starts, but consistency remains a serious concern. One reason for that is the home run ball, which has become a big problem for the 24-year-old. He has allowed 20 on the season, and six over 21 ⅔ innings in July. He’s posted three multi-home run performances over his last six starts.

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