Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Chourio is Brewing Up a Big Night in Wisconsin

There have been plenty of headlines around the Milwaukee Brewers over the last week, but one of the most overlooked ones involves the hot bat of Jackson Chourio. The 22-year-old has shown he can be elite at the plate, but had been underwhelming for the first half of the season. His recent play is reminding us why he seems like a future NL MVP candidate, and is why we’re backing him to go deep tonight.

We’ll dive more into Chourio’s impressive play below, along with two other home run predictions we love.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Friday, August 7

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Home Run Picks for Friday, August 7

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Jackson Chourio Anytime Home Run (+400) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Brewers' young superstar continues to heat up in August, batting .333 with two home runs and a 1.107 OPS. Those home runs have come in two of his last three games, continuing his impressive success at home this season. With Chourio facing a favorable pitching matchup at American Family Field tonight, we see his bat staying hot against Minnesota.

The Twins will be recalling Zebby Matthews (4-8, 5.22 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) to start in Milwaukee tonight. His return to the rotation comes as Joe Ryan hits the IL, not because the 26-year-old was turning things around. The righty finished July at the MLB level, going 0-3 with a 7.66 ERA and five home runs over 24 ⅔ innings. 

Matthews has been especially bad when on the road this season. He’s 2-4 with a 7.33 ERA with 12 home runs over eight starts. 

Once he exits the game, he’ll be handing things over to a surprisingly bad Twins bullpen, whose 4.90 ERA is the fifth-highest in the league.

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Paul Goldschmidt Anytime Home Run (+850) at FanDuel Sportsbook

After a strong start to the season, Goldschmidt has fallen apart over the last month. He’s batting .167 since July 1, managing just two home runs. This is why his price carries so much value, especially considering the pitching matchup he’ll face tonight.

The Braves will be sending Tyler Mahle (3-9, 5.13 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) out to make his first start with the team, which acquired him at the trade deadline. He seemed to be turning a sloppy season around in July, but opened August by allowing five runs and one home run over 5 ⅔ innings.

The reason why we’re highlighting this matchup is Goldschmidt’s career numbers against the 31-year-old starter. He’s faced him 29 times, posting a .379 average, 1.234 OPS, and three home runs. If the slugger is ever going to wake out of his slump, this is the pitcher he’ll do it against. 

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Ceddanne Rafaela Anytime Home Run (+600) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Red Sox have gotten a massive boost from their young center fielder since the All-Star break. Rafaela is batting .314 with seven home runs since then, with three of those long balls coming in August. The 25-year-old is feeling himself at the plate, and tonight’s matchup will give him an excellent chance to have another big game.

Rafaela and the Red Sox will be up against Jack Perkins (2-7, 6.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). After a fantastic April in the bullpen, Perkins has struggled badly. That didn’t change when he joined the rotation in June. Since then, he’s gone 0-5 with a 7.33 ERA and 13 home runs allowed (46 ⅔ innings). 

Once the struggling starter exits, the league’s bullpen will take over. They own the highest ERA in the MLB (5.65) and have allowed the second-most home runs (74). That means Rafaela will have plenty of chances to go deep tonight.

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