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Celtics vs. Pacers Game Four Prediction: Celtics Looking for the Sweep

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published May 27, 2024
12 min read

The Boston Celtics are looking to sweep the Indiana Pacers and move on to the NBA Finals when they meet for Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals on Monday.

Despite the 3-0 series count, the Celtics arguably deserved to lose Games One and Three, and are fortunate to find themselves in the lead. Jayson Tatum finally broke out of his shooting slump his last time out and will look to carry that momentum into the elimination game.

Tyrese Haliburton is expected to miss Game Four just as he did Game Three after he suffered a hamstring injury back in Boston. Andrew Nembhard racked up 32 points and nine assists in his absence and will control the starting unit if Haliburton can’t suit up.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for Celtics vs. Pacers Game Four.

Celtics vs. Pacers 2024 05 27 Prediction

Celtics vs. Pacers Game Four Betting Odds for Monday, May 27

The Celtics are 48-42-5 (53.3 percent) against the spread and just 1-2 (33.3 percent) ATS as a road underdog. They’re 1-2 (33.3 percent) ATS in the series and 7-6 (53.8 percent) ATS in the playoffs overall.

The Pacers are 53-43-3 (55.2 percent) ATS and 9-3-1 (75 percent) ATS as a home underdog. They’re 9-7 (56.3 percent) ATS in the playoffs and 5-3 (62.5 percent) ATS against the Celtics across the regular and postseason.

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Boston Celtics -7.5 (-110) -300 Over 222.5 (-110)
Indiana Pacers +7.5 (-110) +240 Under 222.5 (-110)

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Celtics vs. Pacers Game Four Betting Prediction

Boston Celtics Preview

It simply has to be this year if there is going to be one for the Celtics. 

Looking back at their playoff run, they beat the Miami Heat down Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, the Cleveland Cavaliers without Jarrett Allen and Donovan Mitchell for a few games, and now, they get the youthful Pacers without Haliburton.

The combination of great fortune breaking their way and them still not looking dominant within games is reason for initial skepticism—but that also comes only when holding them to the extremely high standard they set for themselves.

The simple fact is that Boston is now 11-2 in the playoffs and is yet to suffer consecutive losses. Their +11.4 net rating is nearly twice that of the second-place team (and more than two times better than the next-closest remaining team), and that’s without having Kristaps Porzingis for the last couple of weeks.

Jaylen Brown has been their best player thus far, averaging 24.7 points and 6.2 rebounds and having made a number of important shots. Jayson Tatum averaged 26 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 5.8 assists (all team-highs) but was not as consistent as his All-Pro snub teammate.

Boston did a fantastic job defending the three-point line in Game Three, holding Indy to 22 attempts and just five makes (22.7 percent). They still allowed them to shoot better than 50 percent from the field and lost the rebounding battle but prevailed with clutch plays in the final couple of minutes after they trailed by eight points with less than three minutes remaining.

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Indiana Pacers Preview

The Pacers have to be kicking themselves for not closing out one, or both, of Games One and Three. They were the better team for 47 minutes in both but could not close the deal in either, which speaks to their lack of experience, and also the difference in talent between the two teams.

Nembhard made four of his team’s five threes in Game Three en route to his career-high 32 points. Haliburton’s absence on the court allowed Boston not to be as stretched on the perimeter, leading to them doing a better job on all of the other Indy players. 

At the same time, it’s inexcusable for a team with the Pacer’s shooting ability, pace of play, and ability to find the open man to put up those numbers in a home playoff game. 

The Pacers lead the playoffs in offensive rating but are only third in defensive rating, which is reminiscent of their regular season resume. They have a net rating of +1.5, which is 9.9 points per 100 possessions fewer than the Celtics.

Indy put more emphasis on crashing the glass in the playoffs than it did during the regular season. The result has been fewer second-chance points allowed, but they allowed teams to take and make more threes than they were used to.

It’s hard to see a path to victory without Haliburton on the court. They’ve been competitive in the series and can be proud of their effort but have no reason to be down 0-3, which makes it unlikely they will suddenly win a game after already being deflated.

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Celtics vs. Pacers Game Four Betting Pick

The Celtics haven’t been profitable ATS in the series, but we like them to win and cover in Game Four. 

Not only do they have much more talent than the Pacers, but they took the life out of their opponent with their Game Three victory. They’ve also been better on the road than at home in recent playoff runs and showed they could handle the pressure of trailing late in Game Three.

A win would put the Celtics in the Finals against the winner of the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks. Oddsmakers favor them heavily in both series, and that will be where their true test begins.

Celtics vs. Pacers Game Four

  • When: Monday, May 27 @ 8:00 p.m. ET

  • Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN



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Grant Mitchell

554 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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