Knicks vs. Heat Prediction: Can Miami Make Another Late Surge?

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published April 2, 2024
5 min read

The New York Knicks (44-30) are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and will take their top-four seed on the road to face the Miami Heat (41-33), who are attempting another trademark late-season push.

The Knicks lost their last game 113-112 against the Oklahoma City Thunder courtesy of a last-second shot by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander immediately after they fell to the San Antonio Spurs in overtime. The pangs of those two close losses should guarantee they come out with a fire in their bellies as they look to take down the reigning Eastern Conference champions.

The Heat are coming off back-to-back wins, one of which was a 60-point victory over the Portland Trail Blazers. They’re only 4-8 against the top four teams in the East, with three of those coming against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for the Knicks vs. Heat matchup.

Knicks vs. Heats Prediction 04 02 2024

Knicks vs. Heat Betting Odds for Tuesday, April 2

The Knicks are 39-32-3 (54.9 percent) against the spread and 9-11-1 (45 percent) ATS as a road underdog. They covered in six of their last eight games and in one of two meetings with Miami.

The Heat are 35-37-2 (48.6 percent) ATS and 13-14 (48.2 percent) ATS as a home favorite. They also covered in just five of their last 15 games.

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
New York Knicks +2.5 (-110) +110 Over 207.5 (-115)
Miami Heat -2.5 (-110) -135 Under 207.5 (-105)

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Knicks vs. Heat Prediction

New York Knicks Preview

Josh Hart said that the Knicks’ expectations are that their injured teammates, namely Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, are gone for the year, and their current lineup will be the one to guide them through the playoffs.

Whether or not that’s true, this current Knicks team is one of the most resilient in the league. Players will play upward of 40-45 minutes (or 48, in the case of Hart and Miles McBride), and they’ll do it without complaint or a second thought.

Despite the consecutive losses, the Knicks still rank third in average point differential per 100 possessions over their last 10 games (+12) and sixth since the All-Star break (+5.6).

Their recent success was a byproduct of excellence on both ends as they ranked in the top six in offensive and defensive efficiency. They also checked in at second in rebound rate, an area they should only improve in now that Mitchell Robinson is back in the lineup. 

One of the most impressive of the Knicks’ success is that they achieved it mostly without the three-point shot. They ranked just 22nd and made 35.6 percent of their long-range attempts in March but still went 9-5 straight-up.

New York has the fifth-best road rating (+3.6) for the year as a whole. 

Jalen Brunson is the man to watch, coming off 30 points on Sunday and 61 on Friday. He also scored 32 with four threes the last time he faced Miami.

Miami Heat Preview

The Heat are one of the toughest teams to figure out since their strengths and weaknesses, concentration, and overall level of play seem to change as quickly as the tide.

One area the team locked in on recently is defense. They allowed the fewest points per 100 possessions and also held opponents to the lowest three-point percentage (.34) since the All-Star break.

That said, the South Beach offense is not going to win any awards. The team ranked 21st in offensive efficiency over the last 10 games, though they still posted a net rating of +6.8 during that time thanks to their suffocating defense.

This team isn’t anything special on the boards aside from Bam Adebayo. What they are is one of the best teams in basketball when it comes to protecting the ball, supported by impressive marks (especially as of late) in turnover percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio.

The Heat only have a +1.4 net rating and are 19-17 straight-up in their building. 

Terry Rozier is finding his footing in his new home, having averaged 19.3 points and 4.1 rebounds on 44.2 percent three-point shooting over his last seven games. That’s crucial for the Heat, who have been average shooting from range since the intermission.

Knicks vs. Heat Betting Pick

Both of these teams have real promise in a best-of-seven series and also have bad blood from their playoff encounter a year ago.

Brunson has been playing out of his mind seemingly all year, but Rozier’s emergence might just be enough to power the Heat offense that is complemented by an overwhelming defense. 

Because the Knicks are one of the very few teams that can be as mentally resilient as Miami and because they are the far more consistent of the two teams, we like them to get the job done as underdogs on the road.

How to Watch Knicks vs. Heat on 4/2/24

  • When: Tuesday, April 2 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

  • Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

  • TV: NBA League Pass

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Grant Mitchell

Sports Betting Analyst & On-Air Host

Expertise:
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NCAAB
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field. In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Sports Media and Analytics
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
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Experience:
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