Alabama vs. LSU Picks, Predictions and Odds: Expect Alabama’s Defense to Slow Down the Tigers

• LSU is currently out of the playoff picture per the initial CFB playoff rankings

• Alabama is still listed as one of the betting favorites to win the National Championship

• Alabama’s defense ranks top-35 in Def Success Rate, Explosiveness, Finishing Drives, and Havoc

After the initial CFB playoff rankings were released, it’s apparent that the matchup between the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide is essentially an elimination game. While Alabama managed to squeak into the top-12 by being ranked 11th, LSU is on the outside looking in as they are currently ranked 15th overall. Unfortunately for the Tigers, their offense gets the unfortunate task of having to go against an Alabama defense that ranks top-35 in Def Success Rate, Explosiveness, Havoc, and Finishing Drives.

Alabama vs. LSU Odds

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Alabama vs. LSU My Pick

• My Pick: LSU Team Total Under 27.5 (-122) at FanDuel

While Alabama’s offense has underwhelmed the past few week’s, their defense continues to play at a high level as they rank near the top of the board in multiple key metrics. That spells potential disaster for the Tiger’s offense as their lack of versatility plays right into the Tide’s hands. Heading into Saturday’s top-25 SEC matchup, LSU’s offense ranks top-35 in Pass Success Rate while their ground game ranks 118th.

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Alabama vs. LSU Predictions

Alabama Preview

After holding off the Georgia Bulldogs, it seemed as if Alabama would capitalize on their opportunity and steam roll the rest of their competition enroute to the SEC Conference Championship. Unfortunately for the Crimson Tide, their offense fell hard back down to reality, resulting in two demoralizing losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. While this hurt their chances of making it to the conference championship, the Tide still have a chance to make the playoffs and compete for the National Championship.

Should Alabama want to secure a wildcard berth, then their defense must continue to play at a high level while their offense irons out the kinks. During their rollercoaster of play the past few weeks, their defense has remained consistent by continuing to rank near the top of the board in Def Success Rate, Explosiveness, Finishing Drives, and Havoc. Against LSU, the Tide’s secondary will take center stage as the Tigers offense calls the pass at the eighth highest rate in the nation.

Luckily for the Tide, their secondary is well equipped to slow down the Tigers pass attack as their back end enters the contest ranked 3rd overall in Def Pass Success Rate, 17th in PPA, and 29th in Explosiveness. LSU’s starting left guard Garrett Dellinger will also not be able to play after suffering an injury, leaving the Tigers prone to getting beat in the interior. With Garrett Nussmeier potentially under constant pressure, LSU’s offense will be prone to early outs and stalled out drives.

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LSU Preview

Normally known for fielding one of the more versatile and explosive offenses in the nation, the LSU Tigers have struggled to do just that as their ground game ranks near dead last in Rush Success Rate and PPA. This has forced LSU to call a heavier rate of the pass, allowing opposing defenses to cheat out in coverage until they are forced to respect the Tigers rush attack.

With Alabama’s front line able to contain the Tigers rush production in the trenches, the Tide’s defense gets the opportunity to anchor their linebackers in coverage to help lessen the quality of Garrett Nussmeier’s passing lanes. LSU will also be without one of their starting guards as previously mentioned, potentially forcing Nussmeier into more scrambling situations should LSU’s interior line not be able to hold their ground against the Crimson Tide.

Worse yet for the Tigers, their offense may also find themselves with fewer offensive possessions as their own defense will be hard pressed to get Jalen Milroe and company off the field. While improved when compared to last year’s disastrous results, the Tigers defense still ranks below league average in Def Success Rate, Explosiveness, and Finishing Drives. This gives Alabama’s offense the opportunity to sustain drives down the field, draining the clock in the process.

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Alabama vs. LSU How to Watch

• When: Saturday, November 9th

• Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana

• Where to Watch: ABC

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Alabama vs. LSU Injuries

Alabama Injuries

• WR Cole Adams - Out

• DB Keon Sabb - Doubtful

• DB Red Morgan - Questionable

• LB Cayden Jones - Questionable

LSU Injuries

• OL Garrett Dellinger - Out

• WR CJ Daniels - Probable