Alabama is listed as one of the betting favorites to win the SEC Conference Championship
Alabama’s defense ranks top-35 in Def Success Rate, Havoc, Explosiveness, and Finishing Drives
Oklahoma’s offense is near dead last in Pass Success Rate and PPA
While Alabama is technically not in full control of their own destiny, they still have a great opportunity to secure a berth for the SEC Conference Championship should they win their last two remaining games on their schedule. That starts with a road matchup against the Oklahoma Sooners, getting the opportunity to face off against an offense who has struggled to consistently move the ball down the field since Jackson Arnold took over as their starting quarterback.
Odds for the Alabama vs. Oklahoma Saturday's matchup are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place your bets on this matchup and claim $150 in bonus bets at FanDuel.
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Alabama | -13.5 (-114) | -580 | Over 46.5 (-115) |
Oklahoma | +13.5 (-106) | +420 | Under 46.5 (-105) |
Jackson Arnold has struggled in his efforts of stretching out opposing coverage with his arm this season, relying on a heavy amount of conservative throws for minimal success as their near dead last marks in Pass Success Rate and Pass PPA indicates. Against an Alabama defense who excels at limiting opposing offensive production when in the middle of the field, expect a lack of scoring opportunities for the Sooners offense.
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Even though Alabama still needs Missouri to beat either Mississippi State or Arkansas, the Crimson Tide have a great opportunity to play in the SEC Conference Championship. An almost unfathomable feat after suffering two losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, yet chaos to the rest of the field have helped keep them in contention. They still need to win out in order to make the conference championship, starting with a matchup against the Oklahoma Sooners as a two score betting favorite.
Heading into Saturday, the Crimson Tide’s defense will have the opportunity to neutralize Oklahoma’s offense as the Sooners have struggled to generate offensive production when in the middle of the field. Especially in regard to their pass attack as Jackson Arnold has failed in his efforts of stretching out opposing coverage, entering the contest ranked 121st in both Pass Success Rate and Pass PPA.
Against Alabama, Arnold will continue to struggle with generating pass production as the Tide’s secondary ranks 3rd overall in Def Pass Success Rate, 17th in Def Pass PPA, and 29th in Def Pass Explosiveness. The Sooners ground game will also struggle to command defensive attention to the middle of the box as the Tides front seven have been as equally as dominant, entering the contest ranked 29th in Def Rush Success Rate. With no clear path for success, expect a lack of trips to the red zone for the Sooners.
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It’s been a rough transition to the SEC for the 5-5 Oklahoma Sooners as their offense continues to severely underwhelm against higher quality defenses. Since Jackson Arnold took over as their starting quarterback, opposing defenses have had the opportunity to stack the box at a heavier rate to shut down the Sooners ground game as he has been unable to burn them by throwing over the top of their coverage.
Not only will the Sooners offense struggle to get into scoring position, but they may find themselves with less opportunities to do so as their defense will be hard pressed to get the Crimson Tide’s offense off the field. While their front seven has thrived in their efforts of stopping the run by ranking top-10 in Def Rush Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness, their secondary has struggled mightily as they rank below league average in the same previously mentioned metrics.
That spells potential disaster against the Crimson Tide’s Jalen Milroe as he can burn the Sooners linebacking unit with his legs when they anchor in coverage while also being capable of picking apart their gaps in coverage should they crash down. This will allow Alabama’s offense to sustain drives down the field, draining the clock while simultaneously lessening the number of Oklahoma’s offensive possessions. With fewer opportunities to put up points on the board, bet the under on Oklahoma’s team total.
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When: Saturday, November 23rd
Where: Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, Oklahoma
Where to Watch: ABC
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S Keon Sabb - Out
WR Cole Adams - Out
LB Quandarrius Robinson - Out
WR Deion Burks - Questionable
RB Gavin Sawchuk - Questionable
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