Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Picks, Predictions and Odds: Expect a Lack of Scoring Opportunities in the Birmingham Bowl

• Georgia Tech’s Malik Rutherford has left the transfer portal and will return for another year

• Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers is expected to opt out of playing in the Birmingham Bowl

• The Yellow Jackets front seven ranks top-50 in Def Rush Success Rate and Def Rush PPA

After upsetting Alabama and leading Vanderbilt to a bowl game, Diego Pavia is expected to make his return after a federal judge granted him an extra year of eligibility. Speaking of returns, Georgia Tech’s leader in receptions Malik Rutherford has taken his name out of the transfer portal and has declared he will play one more year for the Yellow Jackets. Even with both offenses fairly intact, getting into scoring territory will be a struggle for both squads in the Birmingham Bowl.

Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Odds

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Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt My Pick

• My Pick: Under 51.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Even with Diego Pavia taking the field, the Vanderbilt quarterback may struggle with generating pass production as his number one pass catcher Eli Stowers is expected to opt out. That may lead to an uptick in rush attempts, directly combating against a Georgia Tech front seven who excels at stopping the run. The Commodores front seven also grades out well in Def Rush Success Rate, possessing more than enough production to stall out the Yellow Jackets offense before they get into scoring territory.

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Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Predictions

Georgia Tech Preview

The Commodores Diego Pavia was not the only quarterback to make headlines over the past few weeks as Georgia Tech’s Haynes King has announced he will return to play for the Yellow Jackets in 2025. Not only is King going to captain the offense next season, but he also announced that he will play in the Birmingham Bowl as well.

Unfortunately for King, maintaining their top-15 marks in Pass Success Rate and Pass PPA will be tough as his number one target Eric Singleton has already found a new home in the transfer portal. While his other top target Malik Rutherford did withdraw his name from the portal, the Yellow Jackets receiving room will be dangerously thin as the rest of the pack have struggled with playing at a competitive level.

With a lack of playmakers on the outside, the Yellow Jackets offense will have to rely on their ground game to help remain competitive. That spells potential disaster for Georgia Tech as Vanderbilt’s front seven has excelled at stopping the run this season. Heading into Friday, Vanderbilt’s defense ranks 12th in Def Rush Success Rate and 22nd in Def Rush PPA. With no threat of getting burned through the air, Vanderbilt can stack the box at a heavier rate to help stop the run as well.

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Vanderbilt Preview

Like Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt’s offense may also be without their top target as Eli Stowers is expected to opt out of playing in the Birmingham Bowl. Should Stowers sit out, the Commodores pass attack will lose a majority of their production as the tight end led the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. 

Even though the Commodores call the pass at one of the lowest rates in the league, they still excelled at generating pass production as their offense ranks 22nd in Pass Success Rate and 30th in Pass PPA. Without Stowers, Vanderbilt will lose out on a key advantage as the Yellow Jackets secondary has struggled in coverage this season as their below league average mark in Def Pass Success Rate indicates.

With Vanderbilt’s pass attack expected to regress, they may call a heavier dose of the run to help sustain drives down the field. Unfortunately for Diego Pavia and company, that may result in early outs and stalled out drives as the Yellow Jackets front seven currently ranks top-50 in Def Rush Success Rate and PPA. With no clear path for success for both teams in the Birmingham Bowl, bet the under as Friday’s contest should feature a minimal amount of scoring opportunities.

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Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt How to Watch

• When: Friday, December 27th

• Where: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama

• Where to Watch: ESPN

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Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Injuries

Georgia Tech Injuries

• WR Eric Singleton - Out

• LT Corey Robinson - Out

• LB Romello Height - Out

• S Taye Seymore - Out

Vanderbilt Injuries

• OT Gunnar Hansen - Out