Tennessee vs. Georgia Picks, Predictions and Odds: Nico’s Injury a Major Blow to the Vols Offense

• Georgia is potentially one loss away from missing out on the college football playoff

• Tennessee’s quarterback Nico Iamaleava is listed as questionable on the Vols injury report

• Georgia’s secondary ranks top-15 in Def Pass Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness

After their latest loss to Ole Miss, the Georgia Bulldogs are flirting with disaster as they are potentially just one loss away from missing out on the playoffs. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, their defense gets the benefit of facing Tennessee with a less than 100% Nico Iamaleava after the star quarterback suffered an injury against Mississippi State. Generating pass production against Georgia was already going to be a struggle as the Bulldogs secondary ranks top-15 in Def Pass Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness.

Tennessee vs. Georgia Odds

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Tennessee vs. Georgia My Pick

• My Pick: Tennessee Team Total Under 19.5 (-115) at BetMGM

With Nico dealing with an injury, the Volunteers offense is expected to regress. That spells potential disaster for Tennessee’s chances of moving the ball down the field as Georgia’s defense continues to be one of the best units in the league as they rank above league average across the board in Def Success Rate, Havoc, Explosiveness, and Finishing Drives.

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Tennessee vs. Georgia Predictions

Tennessee Preview

Since giving Nico Iamaleava the starting nod at quarterback heading into the season, the Tennessee Volunteers offense have been one of the more well rounded units in the league as they enter the weekend ranked above league average in Off Success Rate, Finishing Drives, and Havoc Allowed. Generating Explosiveness has still been an issue, yet their ability to methodically stay ahead of the sticks more than makes up for their lack of big plays.

Unfortunately for Tennessee, their offense is expected to regress while their star quarterback is dealing with an injury. While Nico is still set on playing as of writing, maintaining their high marks in Success Rate will be a struggle should he noticeably be less than 100%. Especially through the air as Georgia’s secondary has excelled at limiting opposing pass production this season, fielding a unit that ranks 14th overall in Def Pass Success Rate, 7th in Def Pass PPA, and 4th in Def Pass Explosiveness.

Should Nico struggle to stretch out Georgia’s coverage, then their ground game may lose out on their advantage in Rush Success Rate as the Bulldogs will stack the box at a heavier rate. By stacking the box, the Bulldogs can mask their low mark in Def Rush Success Rate and create more contact in the trenches to help neutralize the Volunteers rush production. With no clear path for success on offense, expect the Volunteers to go under their team total.

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Georgia Preview

It’s been an underwhelming year for the preseason national championship betting favorite as the Georgia Bulldogs are on the brink of elimination from making the playoffs. Carson Beck’s production has fallen off a cliff this season as he continues to struggle with taking care of the ball. In nine games played, Beck has already thrown 12 interceptions while flirting with a high amount of turnover worthy plays.

Against the Volunteers, Beck will have the opportunity to bounce back as he faces off against a Tennessee secondary who ranks 70th in Def Pass Success Rate. Tennessee’s low mark in Def Pass Success Rate indicates they struggle with stopping opposing offenses from cutting the distance to gain in half on first and second down, as well as converting on later downs. With the Volunteers having to respect their ground game, Beck should find himself with high quality passing lanes to help limit Havoc.

With Georgia’s offense in a position to consistently move the ball down the field, that helps chew up the clock and limit the number of Tennessee’s offensive possessions in the process. With less possessions, value shades towards their team total under. Especially when the Volunteers offense is already expected to struggle as Georgia’s defense gets the benefit of stacking the box while daring the injured Nico Iamaleava to beat them over the top.

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Tennessee vs. Georgia How to Watch

• When: Saturday, November 16th

• Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia

• Where to Watch: ABC

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Tennessee vs. Georgia Injuries

Tennessee Injuries

• QB Nico Iamaleava - Questionable

• WR Dont’e Thornton - Probable

Georgia Injuries

• WR Anthony Evans - Questionable

• RB Branson Robinson - Questionable

• RB Roderick Robinson - Questionable