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Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils Prediction: Big Matchup in the ACC

Written by: Tanner Kern
Published March 2, 2024
10 min read

On Saturday, Cameron Indoor Stadium will host the Virginia Cavaliers and the Duke Blue Devils. Duke enters this ACC matchup as the 10th-ranked team in the country, but they should have their work cut out for them at home.

Virginia isn’t ranked, but they’re 21-8 on the season and 12-6 in the ACC. Their offense hasn’t been stellar, but they’re very physical, which has given ACC teams a lot of trouble this season. 

Duke is 22-6 with a 13-4 ACC record. They dominated Wake Forest in their last game at home and have a lot of momentum coming into this contest.

The opening tip is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET. Here, we will break down the game and give our best bets for Virginia vs. Duke. 

Sports betting is legal in North Carolina, so if you want to get in on the action, check out our state betting page.

Wake Forest vs Duke Prediction

Virginia vs. Duke Betting Odds for Saturday, March 2nd

Virginia enters as a hefty 8.5-point underdog with a +330 price on the moneyline from FanDuel Sportsbook. Duke is listed at -430, which is no surprise at Cameron Indoor Stadium. 

Duke is the second-best team against the spread in the ACC, with a 16-11-1 record. Virginia has also been profitable against the spread at 15-13-1.

The total is listed at 126.5, which is low, but it makes sense because Virginia is elite on defense, and Duke has trended under. The Blue Devils are 16-12 to the under, while Virginia is 17-12. 

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Earn up to $150 in Bonus Bets when you sign up for FanDuel using our link.

Virginia Cavaliers+8.5 (-102)+330Over 126.5 (-110)
Duke Blue Devils-8.5 (-115)-430Under 126.5 (-110)

Virginia took down Boston College on Tuesday with a dominant 72-68 win. The win should give the Cavaliers some momentum entering Cameron Indoor Stadium because it snapped a two-game losing streak. 

Virginia had one of their best offensive games, shooting 44% from the field while making eight three-pointers on the night. Reece Beekman led the scoring efforts with 18 points, and two other players were in double figures. 

Three players scoring 10+ has been a rarity for the Cavaliers, so Duke will be challenged if they can replicate this success on Saturday. However, it’s hard to trust the Cavaliers on offense because they’re 14th in the ACC in scoring this season. They’re also 179th in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to the KenPom Ratings. 

Virginia wins with defense, and it has worked against limited offensive teams all season. They’re 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but Duke has been able to score against the best defensive teams in the country. 

The Blue Devils are coming off a dominant win over Louisville on Wednesday night. They were a 20.5-point favorite and covered this margin with a 25-point victory. They bounced back from their road loss to Wake Forest on Saturday with ease, a sign of a great basketball team.

Kyle Filipowski, who sprained his ankle against the Demon Deacons as fans stormed the court, didn’t miss a minute as he was back on the court against the Cardinals. He had ten rebounds, and Jeremy Roach led the way on offense with 19 points. 

Duke shot 56% from the field, and if they can replicate this efficiency, Virginia won’t stand a chance to cover the spread. The Blue Devils have received one of the top seeds in the ACC Tournament, but they’re playing for seeding. 

Duke must continue boosting its resume to earn a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament. As the 10th-ranked team in the nation, they’re slightly outside of this projection, so we expect a team effort coming into this contest. 

The Blue Devils are the 8th-ranked team in the KenPom Ratings. They’re eighth in adjusted offense and 25th in defensive efficiency. Their scoring and domination in the backcourt is a dangerous combination for any team in their way. 

Virginia vs. Duke Prediction and Betting Pick

Virginia is amazing on defense and has proven they can win games with this style. However, their offensive issues really show against teams that can score, and Duke is one of the best-scoring teams in the country. 

They’re the most efficient shooting team in the ACC, and when they go on runs, we don’t believe the Cavaliers have the team to hang with the Blue Devils. They also play strong defense, which should help their cause in this contest if they’re stifled by Virginia early in the matchup. 

Bet $5 and win $150 in Bonus Bets if it wins when you sign up for FanDuel.

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils Pick: Duke -8.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

How to Watch Virginia vs. Duke

  • When: Friday, March 2nd @ 6:00 PM ET

  • Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC

  • TV: ESPN2

  • Streaming: ESPN+

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Tanner Kern

345 Articles

Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.

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