NFL Week 4: Point Spreads, Picks, Predictions & Odds

Week 4: Point Spreads, Picks, Predictions & Odds

It will soon be Week 4 of the NFL’s 100th season and there are still eight teams in the mix who remain undefeated and seven teams who have yet to win a game at all, though it is still early enough in the football year that every franchise can still cling to a glimmer of hope that 2019 will be a success after all.

Last season’s Super Bowl participants, the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams, are among the teams who have not lost yet, but only the Patriots will have to play another undefeated team in Week 4, the Buffalo Bills, while the Rams get to test their luck against the hit-and-miss 1-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

We have picked out the Top 10 best games that stand out as critical for either their football importance, gambling merit or overall dramatic interest and we briefly analyze why the favored team of each matchup might win and project how the underdogs could possibly surprise the world.

Good luck!

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10) 1-2 Los Angeles Chargers at 0-3 Miami Dolphins

How to watch

What: Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

When: Sunday, September 29, 2019, at 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida

How (TV): CBS

Current Point Spread

Chargers -16.5, Dolphins +16.5

SportsbookChargers

-16.5

Dolphins

+16.5

DraftKings-110-110
Unibet NJ-110-110

Why the favored team will win: The Los Angeles Chargers will win because they’re a much better team on all sides of the ball.

The Chargers have the 5th best offense in the league right now and the 19th best defense, whereas the Miami Dolphins are at the bottom in both categories after having been embarrassingly outscored 133-16 in the first three weeks of the season.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is having the type of year that has become expected of him, throwing for the third-most total yardage (944) with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, so he and his favorite target, Keenan Allen (29 receptions for 404 yards, both first in the league, and 3 touchdowns), should make easy work of the Dolphins’ 28th ranked pass defense.

How the underdog could surprise the world: Of the last 14 times these two teams have played against each other, the Miami Dolphins have won 11 of those games, including the most recent one-two seasons ago in September by a score of 19-17, so at least we know a win is possible.

Regardless of how badly the 0-3 Dolphins have been getting outscored and beaten over the last three weeks, quarterback Josh Rosen will most likely win at least one game under center this season (right?), so why not at home against a 1-2 Chargers team who are coming off their second loss.

Who knows, maybe the Dolphins will win because it turns out that Miami general manager Chris Grier is correct and the problem all along this season has been the young and talented safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (why else would you trade a talented young defensive player in his second year as you are planning a total team rebuild?).

Check out our predictions for the Miami Dolphins’ postseason. Will they make it to the playoffs?

9) 2-1 Seattle Seahawks at 0-2-1 Arizona Cardinals

How to watch

What: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

When: Sunday, September 29, 2019, at 4:05 p.m. ET

Where: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona

How (TV): FOX

Current Point Spread

Seahawks -4.5, Cardinals +4.5

SportsbookSeahawks

-4.5

Cardinals

+4.5

DraftKings-110-110
Unibet NJ-110-110

Why the favored team will win: The Seattle Seahawks are coming off their first loss, so head coach Pete Carroll’s crew will be looking to take out the frustration of their defeat at the hands of the Drew Brees-less New Orleans Saints last week on this seemingly clueless Arizona Cardinals team.

Veteran quarterback Russell Wilson just got paid and every win he chalks up from under center this season justifies his $140 million cost, so expect he and his favorite target, Tyler Lockett (22 catches for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns), to hook up quite a bit.

The Seahawks have the 11th ranked defense right now so they will shut down the Cardinals’ ineffective offense that’s still finding its way with a rookie under center and a rookie head coach.

How the underdog could surprise the world: The Cardinals could win this one because they are playing in front of a home crowd and what better place is there to get your first win of the season?

The Seahawks have allowed opponents to score a total of 79 points in three weeks, the seventh most in the league, so this will be a great team for quarterback Kyler Murray and veteran receiver Larry Fitzgerald, to begin connecting for some more touchdown passes against, the two already with 3 scores together.

It would also be a great time for running back David Johnson to get busy, since right now he is 29th in overall running back production with 36 carries for 133 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry.

8) 0-3 Cincinnati Bengals at 0-3 Pittsburgh Steelers

How to watch

What: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

When: Monday, September 30, 2019, at 8:15 p.m. ET

Where: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

How (TV): NBC

Current Point Spread

Bengals +4, Steelers -4

SportsbookBengals

+4

Steelers

-4

DraftKings-115-106
Unibet NJ-115-106

Why the favored team will win: This AFC North battle of the basement will result in one of these two teams getting their first 2019 win, and if you have to choose one here, the Pittsburgh Steelers would be it.

Sure, they are playing with their backup quarterback Mason Rudolph after Ben Roethlisberger went down with a non-contact throwing arm injury, but the team still has a little bit of Juju (Smith-Schuster) in the receiving room and the hard-hitting James Conner running out of their backfield.

The Steelers are off a bit this season, no doubt, but they should easily take care of these bumbling Bengals, especially in front of a Pittsburgh three-rivers hometown crowd.

Read also: Steelers Postseason Odds and Predictions

How the underdog could surprise the world: The Cincinnati Bengals almost beat the undefeated Buffalo Bills in Week 3 and almost beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1, so they can most certainly almost beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4.

The Bengals have actually scored more points than the Steelers so far this season (54-49) so there is no reason to doubt that quarterback Andy Dalton and the league’s third-most productive receiver, John Ross (13 catches for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns), could help their team outscore the struggling Steelers in this one.

The Cincinnati Bengals will win this one because it would put the Steelers in an 0-4 AFC North cellar where they will have a difficult if not impossible time climbing out of, and that would be a feather in the Bengals’ cap that would (arguably) be the next best thing to making the postseason.

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7) 1-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 3-0 Los Angeles Rams

How to watch

What: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams

When: Sunday, September 29, 2019, at 4:05 p.m. ET

Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California

How (TV): FOX

Current Point Spread

Buccaneers +9.5, Rams -9.5

SportsbookBuccaneers

+9.5

Rams

-9.5

DraftKings-110-110
Unibet NJ-110-110

Why the favored team will win: Don’t let the “almost loss” to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 fool you into thinking that the Los Angeles Rams are not the real deal – they faced a banged up and talented Browns team in their Cleveland stadium and came out of there a winner.

The Rams and their 3rd ranked defense (including monster tackle Aaron Donald) will do the same thing in their own home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who actually lost to the New York Giants and their newly starting rookie quarterback Daniel Jones in Week 3.

This is one of the many games on the Rams’ schedule that should be an easy win (they’re the better team), especially now that head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Jared Goff have seemed to find a nice balance of use for now-fragile running back Todd Gurley, plus having a healthy Cooper Kupp doesn’t hurt, either.

Check out our comparison of Tom Brady and Jared Goff.

How the underdog could surprise the world: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are under new management with head coach Bruce Arians, and the so-called quarterback whisperer has gotten Jameis Winston ranked 13th among his peers right now after having completed 59 passes for 782 yards and 5 touchdowns.

The problem has been Winston’s interceptions (4 total in 2019, T- 3rd most in the league), but if he can keep the ball out of the greedy hands of the Rams’ secondary, who are tied for the 7th most picks this season with 3, then they have a much better chance of pulling this one off on the road.

To win, the Bucs’ defense, ranked 14th overall, has to bring constant pressure on Goff and Gurley in the backfield, something Tampa Bay is good at with 7 total sacks, tied for first in the league in that category.

6) 1-2 Cleveland Browns at 2-1 Baltimore Ravens

How to watch

What: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

When: Sunday, September 29, 2019, at 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland

How (TV): CBS

Current Point Spread

Browns +6, Ravens -6

SportsbookBuccaneers

+9.5

Rams

-9.5

DraftKings-110-110
Unibet NJ-110-110

Why the favored team will win: In this other (and more entertaining) Week 3 battle of the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens will do their best to use their newly formed RPO offense to trick and fool Cleveland’s 10th rank defense because that’s the secret to beating these low-scoring Browns.

The Ravens have the best offense in the league right now after having averaged a whopping 511.7 yards in total offense per game, better than both the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs (487.0) and the 3-0 Dallas Cowboys (481.3).

In just his second season, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is the 8th best quarterback in the league right now with 63 completions for 863 yards and 7 touchdowns and the most points of all (110), so expect them to simply outscore these offensively struggling Browns.

Will the Ravens make it to the playoffs?

How the underdog could surprise the world: Yes, the Cleveland Browns have been struggling with scoring touchdowns and making penalties and getting their banged-up offensive line and secondary on the field, but by Week 4 they should have at least some of those kinks ironed out.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield is incredible when he gets rid of the ball in less than 3 seconds (and horrible when he doesn’t), so obviously the key to this win is for him to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible, which is up to Freddie Kitchens, the head coach and caller of the offensive plays.

This defense is solid (10 sacks and 2 interceptions) but they will have to be stellar against these offensively excellent Ravens, and defensive end Myles Garrett, the team’s sack leader with 6 (2nd in the league) and tackle Larry Ogunjobi (2.0 sacks),  will have to exert a tremendous amount of quarterback pressure on Jackson and contain him if the Browns expect to beat the odds and win this one in Baltimore.

Read more about the Cleveland Browns postseason odds.

5) 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles at 3-0 Green Bay Packers

How to watch

What: Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

When: Thursday, September 26, 2019, at 8:20 p.m. ET

Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin

How (TV): NFLN

Current Point Spread

Eagles +4.5, Packers -4.5

SportsbookEagles

+4.5

Packers

-4.5

DraftKings-110-110
Unibet NJ-110-110

Why the favored team will win: The Green Bay Packers are doing exactly what most everybody expected them to do, and that’s to win in 2019 with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, and there’s no doubt they will win this Week 4 matchup against the straining Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.

Throw in receivers Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and tight end Jimmy Graham and you barely miss receiver Randall Cobb and tight end Lance Kendricks at all.

The key to this Packers’ team’s wins so far is coordinator Mike Pettine’s defense, which has been greatly improved by adding linebackers Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith, who together have a combined 7.5 sacks and have made Green Bay a scary team for quarterbacks to play against.

How the underdog could surprise the world: To call the Philadelphia Eagles an underdog sounds odd, especially given that the Eagles and Carson Wentz have a 13th ranked offense and the favorites from Green Bay’s offense is 28th in the NFL right now.

Add to that the fact that the Eagles have outscored the Packers so far in 2019 (76-58) and suddenly giving them 4.5 points seems equally odd, but it’s most likely a result of Philadelphia’s receiving corps being banged up right now.

With Alshon Jeffrey (calf) and J.J.  Arcega-Whiteside (heel) listed as questionable and deep threat DeSean Jackson (abdomen) listed as doubtful for Week 4, the next men up (talking to you, Nelson Agholor, Greg Ward Jr.  and Mack Hollins) will have to beat the Packers in Lambeau, and they will do it because it’s about time for this talented team to get out of whatever this extended preseason funk they have been suffering from, take out Green Bay on the road and get back to .500 where they belong.

Read more on the Philadelphia Eagles odds to make it to the postseason.

4) 2-1 Minnesota Vikings at 2-1 Chicago Bears

How to watch

What: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

When: Sunday, September 29, 2019, at 4:25 p.m. ET

Where: Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois

How (TV): CBS

Current Point Spread

Vikings +2.5, Bears -2.5

SportsbookViking

+2.5

Bears

-2.5

DraftKings-110-110
Unibet NJ-110-110

Why the favored team will win: This is an NFC North battle worth watching for sure, and the Chicago Bears will win it because they are typically terrific at home (7-1 last season), but they lost to the Packers by a touchdown at Soldier Field in Week 1 this year and they will be wanting to snag a win in front of their fans before they start to riot.

Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky started the season cold (he threw 0 touchdowns and an interception in the first two weeks of 2019), but then on Monday Night Football against the Washington Redskins he got hot, completing 25-of-31 for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns with an interception, so he’ll be ready for the Minnesota Vikings, ranked 12th against the pass so far this season after allowing opponents to throw for 225.7 yards per game.

And don’t forget, the Bears still have a killer defense (ranked 4th overall) even without last year’s coordinator Vic Fangio running the show, so good luck to the Vikings who have looked sloppy on the field so far this season, with 25 total penalties for a third-ranked 259 yards.

How the underdog could surprise the world: The Minnesota Vikings were having a slow 1-1 start to the season, but they took care of business against the talented Atlanta Falcons in Week 3 by an impressive score of 28-12, the Vikes’ defense now 12th best in the NFL.

The Vikings need a win against the offensively weak Bears (30th) in Week 4 to have a chance in the NFC North division, and the best way to go after Chicago right now is through the air, their top five defense slipping to the 11th ranked spot against opponents’ passing attacks.

That means Kirk Cousins has to show up better than he has so far, with just 502 yards of passing (27th most among quarterbacks) this season, and maybe receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs could help their franchise-wanna-be-man win this one by catching for more than the team’s total average per game, 164.7 yards, ranked 30th in the league.

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3) 3-0 Dallas Cowboys at 2-1 New Orleans Saints

How to watch

What: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

When: Sunday, September 29, 2019, at 8:20 p.m. ET

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana

How (TV): NBC

Current Point Spread

Cowboys -2.5, Saints +2.5

SportsbookCowboys

-2.5

Saints

+2.5

DraftKings-114-107
Unibet NJ-114-107

Why the favored team will win: Hoo boy, this is going to be a good one, with quarterback Dak Prescott and his Dallas Cowboys already looking in midseason form and running back Ezekiel Elliott looking like he hasn’t missed a day of preseason work at all.

This Cowboys team has the third-best offense right now and can they beat you deep (receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup), mid-range (slot man Randall Cobb) or with sure-handed power (tight end Jason Witten).

Dallas’ 15th ranked defense could use some improvement, but they won’t be facing Drew Brees on Sunday, who is injured, but Teddy Bridgewater instead, so it should be relatively easy to game plan defensively against a backup who just got installed instead of a veteran who is a certain Hall-of-Famer.

Here are our predictions for the Dallas Cowboys 2019 postseason.

How the underdog could surprise the world: The New Orleans Saints missed Drew Brees, of course in Week 3, but that hardly slowed them down on the road against the talented Seattle Seahawks, whom they beat 33-27 with Bridgewater under center.

Bridgewater has been waiting for his time, and he proved he could handle the Saints’ heavy load by throwing a respectable 19-of-27 last week for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns with zero interceptions, which, though they aren’t Brees-type numbers, were enough to get the win.

Like last season, the Saints have a better offense (21st) than they do defense (27th), so to beat this high-scoring Cowboys team they will have to do what they typically have to do to win – score a lot of touchdowns instead of field goals and put pressure on the opposing quarterback, the team tied for the 8th most sacks in the league right now with 9.0 total.

2) 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs at 2-0-1 Detroit Lions

How to watch

What: Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions

When: Sunday, September 29, 2019, at 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan

How (TV): FOX

Current Point Spread

Chiefs -6.5, Lions +6.5

SportsbookChiefs

-6.5

Lions

+6.5

DraftKings-106-115
Unibet NJ-106-115

Why the favored team will win: This is one of two Week 4 games between undefeated teams, and the reason the Kansas City Chiefs will win against the Detroit Lions is because they are the much better offensive team, statistically and because they have Patrick Mahomes, last year’s MVP and the arguably best quarterback in the league right now.

Mahomes’ offense is ranked 2nd overall in 2019 after averaging 487.0 yards of total offense per game compared to Matthew Stafford’s Lions offense ranked at 12th after posting about 120 yards per game less (367.7).

Given that both their defenses are about equally effective and at the bottom third of the league, expect this to be a high-scoring shootout that, even without the speedy Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs will certainly win.

Check out our predictions for who will be the 2019-2020 NFL MVP.

How the underdog could surprise the world: Head coach Matt Patricia most likely doesn’t care if you underestimate his Detroit Lions, who took care of the Philadelphia Eagles in Philly, 27-24, for a Week 3 win.

Stafford is a top ten quarterback with some impressive targets – receivers Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola and tight end Jesse James and rookie sensation T.J. Hockenson – so don’t expect them to not get busy against the Chiefs’ 19th ranked passing defense.

This will be a race to see which offense can score more against the others’ relatively weak defense, so give the Lions an equal chance to make a last-minute win at home happen here.

Check out our detailed article on Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions.

1) 3-0 New England Patriots at 3-0 Buffalo Bills

How to watch

What: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

When: Sunday, September 29, 2019, at 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: New Era Field in Orchard Park, New York

How (TV): FOX

Current Point Spread

Patriots -7, Bills +7

SportsbookPatriots

-7

Bills

+7

DraftKings-103-120
Unibet NJ-103-120

Why the favored team will win: Maybe the New England Patriots don’t have controversial receiver Antonio Brown on their roster anymore, but that truly didn’t seem to matter in Week 3 as they easily took care of the New York Jets, 30-14, with Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman the team’s leading receivers.

One look at the way these Pats are playing and it’s not a far reach to think that there might be no stopping GOATs Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in 2019, their Pats ranked 5th overall in offense and 1st overall in defense after three weeks.

The Patriots may not go undefeated this year (or will they???), but they certainly will not get beaten by someone in their same AFC East division this early on in the season.

Read more on the New England Patriots postseason odds.

How the underdog could surprise the world: The Buffalo Bills are shocking everybody by going an undefeated 3-0 this season, though they haven’t beaten any postseason bound teams just yet (the New York Jets in Week 1, the Giants in Week 2 and the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3).

This will be the Bills’ first real 2019 test to see if they can win a big game against a playoff-worthy team and beating the Super Bowl Champion Patriots would put them right there on top of the ‘take them seriously’ list.

Second-year quarterback Josh Allen has receivers John Brown, Zay Jones, and Cole Beasley and running back Frank Gore is proving to still have strong legs underneath them, so if the Bills’ strong 6th ranked defense can figure out a way to shut Brady and company down (or at least slow them up a bit), this Buffalo team has the talent to squeak out on top.

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