NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl Rematch, How Does Mahomes Do in Return?

Fans worldwide waited seven months for the return of the NFL season. But now that it’s back, there is no time to sit idly - it’s time for our best NFL bets against the spread.

• The Chargers (-10) are the largest favorites of the week against the Cardinals

• The Seahawks are 3.5-point favorites in a Super Bowl rematch on opening night

• Josh Allen threw two INTs and was sacked eight times in a loss to the Texans last year

The Seattle Seahawks dominated for public bettors last year, finishing 15-5 against the spread en route to winning a Super Bowl. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers weren’t as fortunate, finishing a league-worst 5-12 ATS during regular-season play and failing to reach the postseason.

Week 1 is all about who paid attention during the offseason, and who remembers to hold their nerve after over half a year off. I finished well over .500 and in the money last year, and I’m looking for a hot start to the year with my best NFL Week 1 betting picks against the spread.

Let’s do this.

Week 1 Picks ATS

Odds taken from Fanatics sportsbook. Sign up for a new account with Fanatics Sportsbook promo code WSNFAN and claim your welcome offer: Get up to $1,000 Matched in FanCash.

Get more info on this offer in our Fanatics sportsbook review.

Claim Promo Code WSNFAN at Fanatics

Patriots vs. Seahawks - Sept. 9, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots +3.5 (-110), Seahawks -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Patriots +160, Seahawks -195

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

The Patriots were no contest for the Seahawks when it mattered in the Super Bowl in February, ultimately bowing out behind another mundane performance from Drake Maye, who defied his preseason NFL MVP odds to finish as the award's runner-up. That was a disappointing end to their season, given their overall excellence on both sides during the regular season and playoffs. Adding a list of reinforcements headlined by A.J. Brown will keep the Patriots alive in the AFC picture if they can stay focused on football and not off-field controversy (cough cough, Mike Vrabel).

The Seahawks weren’t ravaged in free agency, but they lost some pieces. Kenneth Walker, Riq Woolen, and a few others departed after capturing the Lombardi Trophy, putting the onus on Mike MacDonald to keep his team locked in after they accomplished their ultimate goal. Their defensive scheme is excellent, but they will have to adapt to a new offensive system after Klint Kubiak departed.

An evaluation of the offseason probably favors the Patriots, although the Super Bowl proved that they had lots of ground to make up. Teams will have studied Maye, who looked squeamish under pressure, but he has a better cast of weapons than he did the last time these teams met. The early-season, primetime nature of this matchup makes even a field goal too much to separate these teams.

Patriots vs. Seahawks pick: Patriots +3.5 (-110) at Fanatics

49ers vs. Rams - Sept. 10, 8:35 P.M. ET 

• Spread: 49ers +3.5 (-110), Rams -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: 49ers +165, Rams -200

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

Very little went right for the 49ers this offseason, whether that be injuries, head coaching car crashes, or ownership prostitution sting operations. The consistency of this team cannot be ignored, but the roster is also very, very old - particularly at its most important positions. A defensive resurgence is much-needed, although the floor feels a lot lower than it was in years past.

It’s no surprise that the Rams are the favorites according to Super Bowl odds, with an all-star cast of talent. Myles Garrett will be allowed to play with a lead for one of the first times in his career, while Matthew Stafford proved that he was at the top of his game last year. Losing a “home” divisional matchup to international territory is undesirable, but the Rams certainly looked like the better team.

I always refer to international games as “the great equalizer," which feels as relevant as ever in Week 1 and 26 hours away via plane in Australia. Nobody in their right mind would pick the 49ers’ roster over the Rams’, but the underdogs have a well-established system and still have talent in key positions. This is a test of nerve, but I’d sneakily advise backing the 49ers.

49ers vs. Rams pick: 49ers +3.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Bears vs. Panthers - Sept. 13, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bears -2.5 (-120), Panthers +2.5 (+100)

• Moneyline: Bears -165, Panthers +135

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

Caleb Williams balanced incredible highlight-making with a poor command of the offense on a down-to-down basis. He still showed considerable growth and is only going into his third year, so it’s reasonable to expect further development under the tutelage of Ben Johnson. All eyes are on the defense, which should be without Kyler Gordon and lacks top-level talent.

Losing Nic Scourton for the season didn’t help a Panthers defense that showed it needed pass-rushing juice by paying $30 million annually to Jaelan Phillips in free agency. Lee Hunter will bolster the front line, but Bryce Young’s inconsistent play provides a natural ceiling to the team’s ambitions. The Panthers inexplicably beat great teams and lost to awful ones last year, and it will be interesting to see where they land. 

As a Panthers backer a year ago, I strongly support the Bears - even on the road. Williams’ down-to-down play is disappointing, but then again, so is Young’s. The Bears have a better coach and more overall talent, which should push them to cover this line.

Bears vs. Panthers pick: Bears -2.5 (-120) at Fanatics

Browns vs. Jaguars - Sept. 13, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Browns +8 (-110), Jaguars -8 (-110)

• Moneyline: Browns +310, Jaguars -400

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

Deshaun Watson was named the team starter (said derogatorily). That’s trouble for a team that hasn’t had much of a pulse on offense for years, and that lost the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, albeit replacing him with a quality player in Jared Verse. The trench play for this team could be solid, but without a quarterback, teams can’t do much in the NFL.

A surprising 13-4 season for the Jags last year hasn’t created lofty expectations for 2026. Many around the league view the Jaguars’ offseason as very disappointing, although what can’t be ignored is their skill position talent and power on their defensive line. That said, there are exploitable limitations that will rear their ugly heads at different points.

I don’t know how many times I’ve said this in recent years, if any at all, but I love the Browns in this spot. The natural limiting factor of this being the first week of the season, the Jaguars having not found their offensive rhythm, and Cleveland’s quality on and around the line offensively and defensively makes me confident that they can keep this as a one-score game.

Browns vs. Jaguars pick: Browns +8 (-110) at Fanatics

Falcons vs. Steelers - Sept. 13, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons +3 (-105), Steelers -3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Falcons +140, Steelers -170

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

The Falcons are lucky they have a ton of offensive talent to support their quarterback, because neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Michael Penix Jr. have done much to warrant belief in their abilities at this stage. Atlanta’s defense generated pressure last year, but losing James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker are two huge blows. I like this team’s secondary, but it’s unclear how they will mesh.

Aaron Rodgers looks old, gunshy, and brittle. Uninspiring offensive weapons with an uninspiring head coach don’t inspire much long-term confidence in this franchise, which may be due for a humbling after complaints of Mike Tomlin’s consistent ability to make the playoffs. Joey Porter Jr. might not be playing in Week 1, which would leave them in an even more unpleasant position.

Pittsburgh is still going to have to win with a defensive-first approach if they want to make noise in the AFC North odds, but now they don’t have a defensive coach. The Falcons have talented skill position players, but I can’t buy into either of the players who could be tasked with distributing the ball. This is tough to call, but I’d lean toward the Falcons, in part because of Kevin Stefanski’s experience with AFC North football.

Falcons vs. Steelers pick: Falcons +3 (-105) at Fanatics

Jets vs. Titans - Sept. 13, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Jets +2 (-110), Titans -2 (-110)

• Moneyline: Jets +115, Titans -140

• Total: Over/under 39 (-110/-110)

Aaron Glenn didn’t do much to convince the public that he was a winning head coach last year. Geno Smith is working his way back from a miserable campaign with the Raiders, and his interior offensive line is a massive concern. The Jets are strong on the front line of their defense, but their back-seven leaves a lot to be desired.

Cam Ward didn’t show much development during the preseason, which is concerning. The Titans’ roster resembles the Jets in that there are a couple of solid lineman and a lot of question marks, solid skill position players, and a playmaking defensive front that is balanced by players of decreasing quality the further downfield they go.

In a league with increasing parity, these could be two of the worst teams in the NFL. There is undeniable talent at certain positions, but also gaping holes mixed with utterly inconsistent quarterbacking. I’m predicting an upset here as I believe that Smith can still have good games, despite what happened with the Raiders in 2025.

Jets vs. Titans pick: Jets +2 (-110) at Fanatics

Buccaneers vs. Bengals - Sept. 13, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Buccaneers +4 (-110), Bengals -4 (-110)

• Moneyline: Buccaneers +170, Bengals -205

• Total: Over/under 50.5 (-110/-110)

The Buccaneers have a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who can put up numbers with a never-ending stockpile of receiver talent. Vita Vea and Rueben Bain Jr. will be a handful for opposing offensive lines, but once again, the Bucs become more susceptible the further away from the ball they are on defense. Benjamin Morrison returning to his pre-injury form would be a major boost for this club.

Burrow’s Bengals finally have some defensive support to complement their offensive talent. Dexter Lawrence II will be in charge of controlling the running downs, while Boye Mafe will lead their charge getting after the quarterback. Cincy can basically be penciled in among the league’s leaders in scoring every year, and that won’t change as long as Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are in orange and black.

It’s reasonable to expect this to be a high-scoring affair. Vea and Lawrence are two of the best at their positions, but as talented as the Bucs are on offense, they aren’t quite the Bengals. These two teams closely resemble one another, but I like the home squad at the current line.

Buccaneers vs. Bengals pick: Bengals -4 (-110) at Fanatics

Ravens vs. Colts - Sept. 13, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-105), Colts +3.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Ravens -180, Colts +150

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

Forget the all-world tandem of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, the Ravens made one of the best moves of the offseason: hiring Jesse Minter. The former Chargers defensive coordinator is easily one of the best defensive minds in football, and he will get to work with a ton of talent. That includes Nnamdi Madubuike, who avoided starting the year on injured reserve and will be an anchor for the defensive line, if he’s anything like his old self.

Daniel Jones is going to be making his return from a torn Achilles. Alec Pierce only recently got started practicing, and Keenan Allen is embroiled in off-field controversy after he was arrested for a DUI. Rookies CJ Allen and Bryce Boettcher are sliding into the middle of the linebacking corps, while Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward will look to form one of the league’s best cornerback duos.

It’s impossible to dislike some of the Colts’ talent, but the rookie linebackers, Jones’ return to the field, and the injury effects to Pierce make it hard not to back the Ravens. Jackson was given more receiving options with rookies Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt, and the offensive line was improved by Vega Ionae. I expect a lower-scoring affair that favors the Ravens.

Ravens vs. Colts pick: Ravens -3.5 (-105) at Fanatics

Saints vs. Lions - Sept. 13, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Saints +7 (-115), Lions -7 (-105)

• Moneyline: Saints +250, Lions -320

• Total: Over/under 50 (-110/-110)

What’s your level of belief in Tyler Shough? The answer to that question will heavily influence your outlook on the Saints’ season, which is better than it was a year ago with the investment in their offense. The defense is still in the process of transitioning from old to youthful, but it doesn’t have many of the cornerstone pieces that would make fans comfortable with a full rebuild. 

Detroit’s offense is what it is and has been for years: extremely talented and prolific. Rookie Blake Miller is going to get heavy work at right tackle, but Tate Ratledge and Penei Sewell offer continuity from last year. The defense is great in the front seven but in desperate need of help on the back end, which will inevitably prove to be a problem over the course of an entire season.

Losing Jordyn Tyson to a hamstring injury will knock the Saints’ offense back. I wasn’t convinced by Shough’s play, but Kellen Moore is a great offensive mind and can put him in an offense that allows him to produce. The Lions’ defensive limitations will be problematic, and I could see this being a high-scoring match that ends somewhat close, even if the Lions are in the driver’s seat throughout.

Saints vs. Lions pick: Saints +7 (-115) at Fanatics

Bills vs. Texans - Sept. 13, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bills +1 (-115), Texans -1 (-105)

• Moneyline: Bills -110, Texans -110

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Josh Allen struggled mightily when he ran up against the Texans last year. He’ll have the support of trade addition DJ Moore and the continuity of offensive coordinator-turned-head coach Joe Brady, who will take charge of the team for the first time. The defense added Bradley Chubb but isn’t much different from a year ago, aside from losing Sean McDermott.

An average year from C.J. Stroud would be more than enough to complement the Texans’ impregnable defense, which plays every snap with an unmatched tenacity. The defense simply banks on its opponent not being as talented as it is, allowing defenders to play free and fast. Davi Montgomery probably isn’t a reliable number-one in the backfield at this stage, and the offensive line is still terrible, despite my affinity for Keylan Rutledge.

The Texans are probably the better team top-to-bottom, but the Texans’ lack of support around Stroud, his regression, and the porous offensive line are a tough combination to have going into battle against Josh Allen. The Bills couldn’t move the ball on Houston last year, and I question if Brady is serious enough as the man in charge to get this team to where it wants to go.

Bills vs. Texans pick: Texans -1 (-105) at Fanatics

Dolphins vs. Raiders - Sept. 13, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Dolphins +3.5 (-115), Raiders -3.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Dolphins +150, Raiders -180

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

The Dolphins, well, they have a football team. I’m not sure how much else there is to say about what appears to be the least talented team in the country, which is firmly looking to the future. There are only a couple of proven players and a chunk of rookies who have talent, but who weren’t top picks and have to prove themselves as professionals. 

The Raiders overpaid for a lot of players in the offseason, but that’s the nature of the beast when it comes to rebuilding a dumpster fire of a team. Kirk Cousins will add stability to an offense that should effectively run the ball and use play-action under Klint Kubiak. Maxx Crosby, Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker are also three of the four best defensive players in this matchup, alongside Jordyn Brooks.

This might be my favorite bet of the week. I’m expecting the Raiders to stomp the Dolphins, who are in for a world of trouble this season. I could see this one ending in the 28-10 region if the Raiders establish their run early and force a turnover or two.

Dolphins vs. Raiders pick: Raiders -3.5 (-105) at Fanatics

Commanders vs. Eagles - Sept. 13, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Commanders +5 (-110), Eagles -5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Commanders +190, Eagles -235

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

The Commanders might have lost Laremy Tunsil for the year, but they are still in a much better place than they were talent-wise thanks to the additions of players such as Stefon Diggs, Antonio Williams and Chig Okonkwo. The defense has also done a 180-degree turn and will embrace an innovative scheme from Daronte Jones, a Brian Flores disciple. Jayden Daniels was excellent when he was consistently available, and his returning to that level could easily vault the Commanders back into playoff contention.

The Eagles are stuffed with talent. I expect Saquon Barkley to look a lot more like his 2024 than his 2025 self, but I’m also wary of Jalen Hurts after he seemed to regress over the past couple of years. Sean Mannion’s offense will embrace more modern principles, but Hurts’ best throw was always a deep shot to AJ Brown, now of the Patriots, who is no longer available. Philly’s defense is starting the year a little banged up and with questions at safety, but overwhelmingly talented everywhere else.

The Commanders should improve dramatically from their 5-12 season now that Daniels is back and they upgraded their talent. It’s unclear which direction the Eagles are headed in, although they are valid arguments for both sides. The deciding factor for me is the disruptive nature of Jones’ new defensive scheme, and that possibly leading to turnovers for a QB in Hurts, who doesn’t want but may be forced to make quick decisions in the pocket. 

Commanders vs. Eagles pick: Commanders +5 (-110) at Fanatics

Cardinals vs. Chargers - Sept. 13, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +10 (-110), Chargers -10 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cardinals +420, Chargers -575

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-105/-115)

Between being held hostage by Jacoby Brissett, hiring an offensive coordinator who didn’t call plays as head coach, and drafting a low-value position player third-overall, the Cardinals’ offseason didn’t go very well. Jeremiyah Love will inject energy into an offense that often struggled last year, while a healthy Walter Nolen will help the defense. However, this team is still far away from being competitive week-in-week-out.

I am fully prepared for Mike McDaniel to change Justin Herbert’s life… him and the combination of Joe Alt and Rashan Slater returning from injuries. It’s easy to make fun of the Chargers for not winning a playoff game during Herbert’s career, but they are comfortably positioned to be a Super Bowl contender. Jesse Minter is no longer in charge of the defense, yet they still have a ton of talent and a coach in Chris O’Leary, who was in LA as the safeties coach in 2024.

The Cardinals always seemed to know how to go helplessly behind early before rallying to cover the spread once Brissett was put in the lineup a year ago. I’m comfortable with the Chargers being more than a touchdown better than their opponent, but having the ability to cover a spread this large in Week 1 is a different prospect. Even still, Mike LaFleur’s inexperience as a head coach pushes me to side with the Bolts. 

Cardinals vs. Chargers pick: Chargers -10 (-110) at Fanatics

Packers vs. Vikings - Sept. 13, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers +1.5 (-110), Vikings -1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers +100, Vikings -120

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

There’s going to be lots of pressure on Jordan Love to deliver now that Josh Jacobs appears to be out for at least 10 weeks. The Packers’ offensive line lacks star talent, their running back room is underwhelming, and they desperately need Matthew Golden to take a step forward to replace the outgoing Romeo Doubs. There’s plenty of talent in their defense, but losing Quay Walker and starting the year without Micah Parsons won’t do them any favors.

Kyler Murray will have the chance to resurrect his career in a spot that has done that for other QBs, namely, Sam Darnold. There’s no shortage of talent on offense, and Brian Flores will always have his defense primed and ready to cause chaos. Dallas Turner in particular will be asked to take another step forward after he got eight sacks and forced four fumbles a year ago.

Looking at the NFC North odds, the entire division is a cluster of good, playoff-contending teams that aren't quite great. Perhaps it’s recency bias, but I’m not overly fond of the idea of Love, burdened by the lack of running back support, going to face a Flores defense in a dome. I see the Vikings controlling this game and forcing at least two turnovers.

Packers vs. Vikings pick: Vikings -1.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Cowboys vs. Giants - Sept. 13, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cowboys -3 (-105), Giants +3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Cowboys -155, Giants +130

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

We don’t need to talk about how prolific the Cowboys’ offense was a year ago. Instead, we can focus on the underrated but excellent guard play from Tyler Smith and Tyler Booker that should ensure they’re able to run the ball effectively, which also means that CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens will face favorable coverages at different points. The defense is embracing the scheme of Christian Parker, a Vic Fangio prodigy, who has talented pieces such as Quinnen Williams and Caleb Downs to lead his charge.

The Giants made a slew of upgrades during the offseason and are in a much better place than they were last year, yet they’re still far behind their division rivals in the NFC East odds. Injury questions for their best offensive players, a line that has one star, one rookie, and three question marks, and a terrible assembly of assistant coaches don’t breed much confidence. Good luck running the ball past the second level, but the secondary is still suspect, while the linebackers aren’t great in coverage.

The “smart” pick against the spread is to take the division rival catching a full field goal at home. That said, I think the Cowboys are more talented and better coached and can bring the fight to their opponent. It might only be a four-point victory, but if pushed, I’d back the Cowboys.

Cowboys vs. Giants pick: Cowboys -3 (-105) at Fanatics

Broncos vs. Chiefs - Sept. 14, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Broncos +2.5 (-105), Chiefs -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Broncos +125, Chiefs -150

• Total: Over/under 43 (-110/-110)

The final game of the week will also mark Bo Nix’s first time returning to the field since he fractured his ankle in the AFC Divisional Round. He got to sit behind the best offensive line in the league last year, while an outstanding defense routinely put him in favorable positions. Denver’s improbable one-score luck will fade, but to say they’re anything other than highly talented would be farcical. 

Patrick Mahomes is also making his return to the regular season after he suffered a torn ACL and LCL toward the end of last year. He should finally have a running back in Kenneth Walker III who is capable of supporting him, but I really worry about the lack of playmaking pass-catchers. The defense is transitioning from old to young, but rookies such as Mansoor Delane, Peter Woods, R Mason Thomas, Jadon Canady, and others come with very high ceilings.

Everyone knows the Broncos were the better team last year. I could see the Chiefs’ defense being a work in progress because of their youth, but I also have deep trust in Steve Spagnuolo. I think that this could come down to the team that holds the ball last, but I’d be looking at the Broncos at this value.

Broncos vs. Chiefs pick: Broncos +2.5 (-105) at Fanatics

Join Fanatics and Get up to $1,000 in FanCash