We kick off Tuesday’s full slate of games backing the best offense in the league as the New York Rangers have the opportunity to maintain their high marks in Expected Goals For in a matchup against the lowly Montreal Canadiens. Defense has been optional for Montreal this season as they rank near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and 32nd overall in 5-on-5 Play.
Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Seattle Kraken and Colorado Avalanche as positive regression has finally swung towards the Avs way in regard to their defense. After spending a majority of the season ranked well above league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, their defense has finally managed to wall off opposing Shots on Goal and neutralized opposing scoring production in the process.
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Since the start of the season, the New York Rangers offense have comfortably outpaced the rest of the league in Expected Goals For in All SItuations by averaging nearly five Expected Goals per Game. Their hot start was largely to be expected after retaining a majority of their roster that led them to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, putting them in a favorable position to succeed right out of the gate due to their continuity.
They now have the opportunity to keep on playing at a high level as they are set to face off against one of the worst defenses in the league. Heading into Tuesday, the Montreal Canadiens defense ranks 29th overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and 32nd in 5-on-5 Play. Even against the anemic New York Islanders offense in their last game out, the Canadiens conceded 4 total goals in a shootout loss while generating an Expected Goals Against mark of 3.37.
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Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, value in the points market shades towards the Rangers as they will generate multiple high quality scoring opportunities against one of the worst defenses in the league. Chris Kreider has been one of the Rangers main sources of offensive production so far this season as he averages 0.32 Expected Goals per Game. While his anytime goalscorer prop is also worth a wager, back the over on his points prop for some added security in case he generates an assist instead.
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After averaging over six goals against in their first four games of the season while ranking well above league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, positive regression has finally swung towards the Avs way after two straight productive outings. Granted their last two games were against the lowly Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks, yet it was a much needed performance for a team projected to contend for the Stanley Cup title.
Fortunately for Colorado, their back line gets the opportunity to build on their momentum in another favorable matchup as the Seattle Kraken rank 27th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations and 22nd in 5-on-5 Play. When you look at their shot chart, the Kraken struggle with generating Shots on Goal near the net. That plays in the Avs favor who excel at smothering opposing shots away on the far side of the ice, putting their goalies in a more favorable position to help wall off shots at the net.
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While the Kraken’s offense has struggled, their defense has continued to play at a high level as they rank top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and total opposing Shots on Goal. With the Avs Cale Makar settling into a more of a facilitating role as the team’s current assist leader instead of sending pucks towards the net from the back line, expect another underwhelming output in regard to his Shots on Goal.
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