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Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction: Bet on This Generous Point Spread

Written by: Travis Pulver
Published May 21, 2024
5 min read

The Las Vegas Aces have been the team to beat the last couple of seasons, and it looks like that will also be the case this year. While they have yet to play their best, the Aces are 2-0 and were never really in danger of losing. However, they have not been able to put teams away and are 0-2 ATS.

We are, of course, just a week into the season, and it is way too early to draw conclusions about anyone. Otherwise, one could argue that the Mercury, owners of the worst record in the WNBA last season (9-31), have become competitive.

Facing the defending champs on the road twice in less than a week is a tough way to start the season. Phoenix played them tough in the opener; can they do so again? We’ll find out tonight. 

Let’s review the betting odds for Mercury vs. Aces. Afterward, we’ll share our pick for the game.

Mercury vs Aces Prediction

Mercury vs. Aces Betting Odds for Tuesday, May 21

Betting on the Las Vegas Aces has been a solid idea for the last couple of seasons. Two games into the 2024 season, which may be the case again as they are off to a 2-0 start. But since they are often heavy favorites to win, there isn’t any value in betting on the moneyline. 

As for the point spreads in their first two games, they were 16.5-point favorites vs. the Mercury in the opener and 18.5-point favorites vs. the Sparks. 

Having confidence in them to win outright is easy. But banking on them to blow their opponents out of the water? Eh…that’s not so easy. Then again, in the four games the Aces and Mercury played last season, the spreads were 17+ points. Vegas went 3-1 ATS in those games.

But the Aces are 0-2 ATS so far, and the spread in this game is a big one.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook where new users can get a No Sweat First Bet up to $1,500.

Phoenix Mercury+14.5 (-110)+800O 171 (-110)
Las Vegas Aces-14.5 (-110)-1350U 171 (-110)

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Mercury vs. Aces Prediction

Phoenix Mercury Preview

The Mercury could have opted for a slow rebuild after last year's disastrous season (9-31). Instead, they hit the offseason hard, revamped the roster, and added some much-needed talent, i.e., Natasha Cloud and Kahleah Copper, and depth.

Both Cloud and Copper had solid debuts, scoring 14 and 19 points against the Aces, respectively. Copper blew up against Atlanta, scoring a career-high 38 points. But to beat the Aces, the Mercury will have to play a more complete and consistent game than they did in the opener.

A 21-3 run early in the game allowed the Aces to take a 29-14 lead after one. But then Phoenix dominated the second quarter, 27-13, to go into the half down by one, 42-41, a minor miracle after such a disastrous start. The second half was competitive, but the Aces were always in control.

The Mercury proved they can compete with the Aces, but the trick will be to do so for four quarters, which will be necessary for Phoenix to record an upset.

Bet on Phoenix Mercury at DraftKings 

Las Vegas Aces Preview

The WNBA schedulers gave the Aces an early Christmas present. Las Vegas starts the season with four games against three of the league's worst teams last year (Phoenix 2X, Los Angeles, and Indiana) and doesn't play a team with a winning record in 2023 until June 5 (@ Dallas).

Thanks to a relatively easy schedule to start the season, the Aces will have a chance to work out any kinks and get everyone on the same page. While they got things off to a strong start against the Mercury in the opener, they fumbled through the second half and nearly lost the lead. 

While their play improved in the second half, they couldn't put the Mercury away. Phoenix remained within striking distance and closed the gap to 83-30 late in the fourth quarter. 

Vegas led by double-digits for most of the second half but let the Sparks get within four points, 84-80, with 2:37 remaining.

Bet on Las Vegas Aces at DraftKings 

Mercury vs. Aces - My Pick

Phoenix has some talent on the roster that will only get better the more it plays together; the same could be said about the Las Vegas roster, too. But with how both teams have played so far, the Mercury are playing well enough to make it competitive in the second half.

They will not make it so competitive the Aces will be in danger of losing, but Vegas will not cover the spread.

How to Watch Mercury vs. Aces

  • Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV

  • Game Time & Date: 10 pm ET, Tuesday, May 21, 2024

  • TV Network: ESPN

  • Streaming: Fubo


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Travis Pulver

Sports Betting Analyst

Betting Picks
Travis Pulver is a lifelong football fan, something he says comes naturally having been born in the football-crazy state of Texas. Through the years, Pulver's love of sports has extended into baseball, basketball, golf, and rugby. Life currently finds him in Indiana with his wife and two kids.
Nationality: American
Education: M.A. in Political Science
Favourite Sportsbook: FanDuel Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
17 years
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