WNBA MVP 2024 Predictions: A'ja Wilson Remains Favorite But Several Contenders Are on the Rise

•  A’ja Wilson opened as the betting favorite to win MVP at +175, giving her a 36.36% chance of winning.

•  As of September 3, her chances of winning had improved to 97.22%

• Caitlin Clark's odds have moved from +6000 to +7500 over the last couple of weeks.

From the perspective of a fan of the game, it would be nice if there was a little more mystery as to who the WNBA MVP will be this year. Nothing is set in stone, of course, but Las Vegas Aces superstar A’ja Wilson has been the betting favorite since the odds opened and has remained so throughout the season.

But the regular season is not over yet. However, is there anything anyone can do to overshadow the season that Wilson has had?

Most people would answer that question with an emphatic “NO.” That is not to say that no one else has had an exceptional year. But has anyone had a more valuable year? Most would still say “No,” but a solid argument could be made for at least one player.

2024 WNBA MVP Odds

Important note: This market is closed for the rest of the season and odds are no longer available at online sportsbooks.

WNBA MVP Predictions and Favorites to Win

A'ja Wilson had an MVP-caliber season last year and had a solid argument to win her third trophy in four years. As the superstar of the team with the best regular-season record (34-6), it would have made sense. 

But there was just one problem - Breanna Stewart and Alyssa Thomas also had MVP-caliber seasons. 

Hence, the final vote was historically close: Stewart (446 points), Thomas (439), and Wilson (433). Stewart has dropped out of the limelight this season, but Thomas and Wilson are right in the thick of MVP discussions, and a couple of new contenders have risen.

Let's take a closer look at some of the top contenders at this stage of the season (odds via BetMGM):

A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces, Center (-3500) at BetMGM

• 2024 Season Stats (per game): 27.5 points (first), 12.1 rebounds (second), 2.4 assists,1.9 steals (fourth), and 2.7 blocks (first).

•  22 double doubles (34 games played); leads team in scoring, rebounds, steals, and blocks; leads WNBA in scoring and blocks.

There should be no doubt on whether Wilson is having an MVP-caliber season. She does it all for the Aces, leading the team in several categories on both ends of the court. Without her, Las Vegas could still make the postseason, but they wouldn’t be the betting favorite to win it all.

However, while it is not a significant factor, there is one thing to be aware of: her team is not a dominant force despite having the most dominant player in the league on the roster. That is not entirely her fault, of course.

But voters like to see their league MVP leading her team to more wins than losses.

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Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever, Guard (+7500) at BetMGM

• 2024 Sesson Stats (per game): 18.7 points (10th), 5.6 rebounds, 8.4 assists (first), and 3 three-pointers made (second).

• Recorded first triple double by a rookie in WNBA history(July 6, 19 points,12 rebounds, and 13 assists vs. Liberty), broke single game assists record (19 vs. Wings on July 17).

One could argue that Clark’s name is only getting mentioned in MVP conversations because of all the hype surrounding her entering the season. It certainly played a part in the overwhelming number of bets sportsbooks have taken on her to win MVP (54.3% of tickets and 48.2% of the handle at BetMGM).

Her only argument to win over Wilson is this - Clark’s season has had more value. Wilson is why the Aces have not fallen off the map altogether, but they have lost games where she has exploded for big numbers and won games where she struggled (which is rare). 

The same is not true for Clark and the Fever.

As Clark has improved, so has Indiana. She has done something Wilson has not - helped make the players around her better. Her teammates have improved and picked up their games right along with her, possibly making the Fever the one team no one wants to face in the postseason.

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WNBA MVP Winner - My Picks

Favorite - A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces (-3500) at BetMGM

There is no arguing with how well she is playing. The only question is whether she can maintain her current level of play for an entire season. Let me rephrase that: the only question is whether Wilson, a 2X former WNBA MVP, can maintain her current level of play for an entire season.

She's done it before. She'll do it again. She could probably sit out the remainder of the regular season and still be a unanimous winner.

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Longshot - Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever (+7500) at BetMGM

A rookie has won MVP before, so it is not unprecedented. Candace Parker won Rookie of the Year and MVP in 2008 while playing for the Los Angeles Sparks. She helped take one of the worst teams in the league from the season before into the playoffs, improving from 10-24 to 20-14.

Parker ranked amongst the better players in several statistical categories and led the league in rebounding. Hmmm…sounds a lot like the kind of season Clark is having…

Based on statistics, Wilson deserves MVP, without a doubt. But if we want an MVP who has had a more valuable season, Clark is the right choice. 

Her season has helped turn a franchise into a playoff team and potential contender. Wilson just generated an impressive stat line and kept her team relevant. However, we are not expecting voters to agree.

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WNBA MVP History 

The WNBA has been naming a regular-season MVP since the league's inaugural season in 1997. Under the current system, the fan vote accounts for 25% of the total vote, while a panel of writers and broadcasters do so for 75%. 

Houston Comets star won the first two MVP awards in '97 and '98. Since then, 15 players have been named league MVP, with eight winning more than once.

Below is a list of WNBA MVP winners:

How to Read WNBA MVP Odds 

Futures odds, like WNBA MVP, consist of at least three numbers preceded by a plus (+) or minus (-). Odds tables for futures often open with every market having plus money odds. The one with the shortest odds is considered the betting favorite; at most, they will have a 50% chance of winning (+100). 

If a market has minus odds, the odds are what bettors will have to wager to win $100. For example, bet on Caitlin Clark to win Rookie of the Year at DraftKings (-700), and you'll need to risk $700 to win $100. 

For those with plus odds, the odds are how much bettors can win if they bet $100. For example, bet on Caitlin Clark to win WNBA MVP at +1200, and a $100 wager will result in a $1,300 payout (your stake plus $1,200 in winnings).

You do not have to bet $100 if you do not want to. If you want to see what you can win with the stake you are willing to bet, check out our odds calculator.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the WNBA MVP

Now that you have some insights into both MVP races, it is time to find a sportsbook to place your bet. You can check out our full sportsbook reviews on our sportsbooks page, but below are some quick comparisons to help you decide.

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