WNBA MVP 2024 Predictions: A'ja Wilson Remains Favorite But Several Contenders Are on the Rise

Written by: Travis Pulver
Fact-checked by: James Whitelock
Updated June 25, 2024
12 min read
  • A’ja Wilson remains the betting favorite (-290); she leads the league in scoring (27.8 ppg) and rebounding (11.6 per game) and is second in blocks (2.4 per game).

  • Indiana Fever rookie Caitlin Clark had the fourth-best WNBA MVP odds when the season started (+1200) but have dropped to +15000.

  • Reigning MVP Breanna Stewart has gone from having the second-best odds (+400) behind A’ja Wilson to +2500.

With the 2024 WNBA regular season closing in on the halfway point, it’s an excellent time to see how the WNBA odds have moved since the season got underway. There has been a fair amount of change among the players at the top of betting boards, but a familiar name stands out among contenders.

Las Vegas Aces center A’ja Wilson opened as the betting favorite at +180, giving her a 35.71% chance of winning. But her odds have since shifted to -290. At those odds, she has a 74.36% chance of winning. If she goes on to win, it will be her third WNBA MVP award in five years.

But there is a lot of basketball left to play. While the odds make Wilson a heavy favorite to win, the season is far from over. There is plenty of time for someone to build a solid case to win the 2024 WNBA MVP award.

2024 WNBA MVP Odds

Here are the odds for the top five players listed at FanDuel Sportsbook. Head over to FanDuel and place your bets: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets.

Player Odds
A’ja Wilson -290
Alyssa Thomas +1100
Napheesa Collier +1100
Breanna Stewart +2500
Kahleah Copper +3500
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WNBA MVP Predictions and Favorites to Win

A'ja Wilson had an MVP-caliber season last year and had a solid argument to win her third trophy in four years. As the superstar of the team with the best regular-season record (34-6), it would have made sense. 

But there was just one problem— Breanna Stewart and Alyssa Thomas also had MVP-caliber seasons. 

Hence, the final vote was a historically close one: Stewart (446 points), Thomas (439), and Wilson (433). Fans can probably expect the race to be just as heated, if not more so, with Caitlin Clark added to the mix. 

Let's take a look at some of the top candidates as the season approaches:

A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces, Center (-290) at FanDuel

  • 2024 Season Stats: 27.8 points, 11.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists,1.9 steals, and 2.4 blocks per game.

  • Nine double-doubles (14 games played); leads team in scoring, rebounds, steals, and blocks; leads WNBA in scoring and rebounds, second in blocks.

When you watch A'ja Wilson play, it becomes clear as day why she is such a heavy favorite to win even though the season isn’t even halfway through. She makes scoring look easy, with a league-leading 27.8 ppg to go with a WNBA-best 11.6 rebounds per game. Wilson creates, she produces, and she makes everyone else around her better.

But there is one critical component missing.

Her Aces are struggling. They've lost four of their last six games and are just 8-6 for the season (as of June 24). Her stats can't be too valuable if they don't translate into wins. However, the WNBA has named a player MVP from a team with a .500 record (Lisa Leslie, LA Sparks, 2004) and another on a team that didn't make the playoffs (Laura Jackson, Seattle Storm, 2003).

So, while wins help make an MVP case, they are not necessarily of vital importance.

Bet on A'ja Wilson (-290) at FanDuel 

Alyssa Thomas, Connecticut Sun, Forward (+1100) at FanDuel

  • 2024 Season Stats: 12.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.2 steals per game.

  • One triple-double, nine double-doubles (16 games played); leads team in rebounds, assists, and steals; leads WNBA in assists.

Thomas had a great case to win last season but lost out to Breanna Stewart, whose case was better than hers in the eyes of enough voters. Once again, she is having a solid season, averaging close to a trouble-double with numbers similar to those she put up across 40 games last season.

While her stats are not as good as Wilson's, you could say that her play has been more valuable since the Connecticut Sun are 13-3 and the Aces are 8-6. It would help her cause if she were a little more productive, but her defense is one of the reasons the Sun has the No. 1 scoring defense.

And the best record in the WNBA….

Bet on Alyssa Thomas (+1100) at FanDuel 

Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx, Forward (+110) at FanDuel

  • 2024 Season Stats: 20.9 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.3 steals per game.

  • Nine double-doubles (16 games played); leads team in scoring, rebounds, and steals; top-5 in points, rebounds, and steals in WNBA.

If you are wondering how the Minnesota Lynx went from being just another team to a potential WNBA Championship contender, look no further than Napheesa Collier's stellar play. Not only does she lead the Lynx in points, but she also leads the team in rebounds, steals, and 1.5 blocks per game.

Collier is one of four WNBA players averaging a double-double; of those four, only A'ja Wilson is scoring more (27.9 ppg).

Bet on Napheesa Collier (+1100) at FanDuel 

Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty, Forward (+2500) at FanDuel

  • 2024 Season Stats: 19.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2.2 steals per game.

  • Eight double-doubles (14 games played); leads team in scoring, rebounds, and steals; fourth in steals in WNBA.

Stewart leads the Liberty in several statistical categories and ranks among the best in the league as well in several. While she may not be putting up mind-blowing numbers, Stewart has been a good, reliable contributor for one of the top teams in the league.

MVPs are not won in May and June. She has plenty of time to boost her resume.

Bet on Breanna Stewart (+2500) at FanDuel 

Kahleah Copper, Phoenix Mercury, Forward (+3500) at FanDuel

  • 2024 Season Stats: 22.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game.

  • Leads team in scoring.

The Mercury got off to a decent 3-1 start, but then they lost four in a row. At 3-5, they were not on anyone's early list of playoff contenders, which meant Copper's play would get overlooked. Yes, even though she was No. 3 in the league in scoring.

But then Phoenix went on a run, winning five of their next eight to improve to 8-8 on the year with wins over solid teams like New York, Seattle, and Minnesota. With a healthy Britney Griner in the lineup, defenses will have to respect her game, which could lead to less pressure on Copper.

Being an integral part of a team on the rise will eventually get her into MVP conversations. However, to win, she will need to lead the league in scoring with a ridiculous number or contribute more in other areas (e.g., rebounding, steals, assists, blocks, etc.).

Bet on Kahleah Copper (+3500) at FanDuel 

WNBA MVP Winner - My Picks

Frontrunner—A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces (-290) at FanDuel

There is no arguing with how well she is playing. The only question is whether she can maintain her current level of play for an entire season. Let me rephrase that: the only question is whether Wilson, a 2X former WNBA MVP, can maintain her current level of play for an entire season.

She's done it before. She'll do it again.

Bet on A'ja Wilson (-290) at FanDuel 

Dark Horse—Napheese Collier, Minnesota Lynx (+1100) at FanDuel

Allysa Thomas deserves to be in the conversation as the best player on the team with the best record. But as someone who came close to winning last year, she can't be a "dark horse." Collier, on the other hand, certainly is.

The Lynx opened at +6000 to win the championship this year. But at 13-3, they have the best record in the West and look like a team that can go all the way. So, it is only fitting that the best player on their roster is involved in MVP talks.

Since her odds have moved from +3500 to +1100, she is on of the top contenders.

Copper's case is a little more challenging to make. But it will become easier if the Mercury keep winning games and Copper continues to lead the way on the scoreboard. She'll need to do something other than score to win MVP, but leading a team out of the cellar and into the playoffs will get her in the conversation.

Bet on Napheese Collier (+1100) at FanDuel 

Longshot— Nneka Ogwumike, Seattle Storm (+8500) at FanDuel

As the best player on a contender, her name is on the outskirts of MVP conversations. While she has had a productive season, voters will want to see a lot more from her before giving her the nod over Wilson, Stewart, or Collier.

Bet on Nneka Ogwumike (+8500) at FanDuel 

WNBA MVP History 

The WNBA has been naming a regular-season MVP since the league's inaugural season in 1997. Under the current system, the fan vote accounts for 25% of the total vote, while a panel of writers and broadcasters do so for 75%. 

Houston Comets star won the first two MVP awards in '97 and '98. Since then, 15 players have been named league MVP, with eight winning more than once.

Below is a list of WNBA MVP winners:

Year Team Winner
2023 New York Liberty Breanna Stewart
2022 Las Vegas Aces A'ja Wilson
2021 Connecticut Sun Jonquel Jones
2020 Las Vegas Aces A'ja Wilson
2019 Washington Mystics Elena Delle Donne
2018 Seattle Storm Breanna Stewart
2017 Minnesota Lynx Sylvia Fowles
2016 Los Angeles Sparks Nneka Ogwumike
2015 Chicago Sky Elena Delle Donne
2014 Minnesota Lynx Maya Moore
2013 Los Angeles Sparks Candace Parker
2012 Connecticut Sun Tina Charles
2011 Indiana Fever Tamika Catchings
2010 Seattle Storm Lauren Jackson
2009 Phoenix Mercury Diana Taurasi
2008 Los Angeles Sparks Candace Parker
2007 Seattle Storm Lauren Jackson
2006 Los Angeles Sparks Lisa Leslie
2005 Houston Comets Sheryl Swoopes
2004 Los Angeles Sparks Lisa Leslie
2003 Seattle Storm Lauren Jackson
2002 Houston Comets Sheryl Swoopes
2001 Los Angeles Sparks Lisa Leslie
2000 Houston Comets Sheryl Swoopes
1999 Sacramento Monarchs Yolanda Griffith
1998 Houston Comets Cynthia Cooper-Dyke
1997 Houston Comets Cynthia Cooper-Dyke

How to Read WNBA MVP Odds 

Futures odds, like WNBA MVP, consist of at least three numbers preceded by a plus (+) or minus (-). Odds tables for futures often open with every market having plus money odds. The one with the shortest odds is considered the betting favorite; at most, they will have a 50% chance of winning (+100). 

If a market has minus odds, the odds are what bettors will have to wager to win $100. For example, bet on Caitlin Clark to win Rookie of the Year at DraftKings (-700), and you'll need to risk $700 to win $100. 

For those with plus odds, the odds are how much bettors can win if they bet $100. For example, bet on Caitlin Clark to win WNBA MVP at +1200, and a $100 wager will result in a $1,300 payout (your stake plus $1,200 in winnings).

You do not have to bet $100 if you do not want to. If you want to see what you can win with the stake you are willing to bet, check out our odds calculator.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the WNBA MVP

Now that you have some insights into both MVP races, it is time to find a sportsbook to place your bet. You can check out our full sportsbook reviews on our sportsbooks page, but below are some quick comparisons to help you decide.

  Caesars BetMGM FanDuel
WNBA MVP Odds for the Favorite A’ja Wilson -500 -300 -290
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Travis Pulver

Sports Betting Analyst

Betting Picks
Travis Pulver is a lifelong football fan, something he says comes naturally having been born in the football-crazy state of Texas. Through the years, Pulver's love of sports has extended into baseball, basketball, golf, and rugby. Life currently finds him in Indiana with his wife and two kids.
Nationality: American
Education: M.A. in Political Science
Favourite Sportsbook: FanDuel Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
17 years
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