2024 WNBA Championship Odds & Predictions: Aces Remain Favorites But Contenders Have Emerged

• Despite some early-season struggles, the Las Vegas Aces remain the betting favorite at +135.

• New York Liberty has narrowed the gap on the Aces, with odds moving from +250 to +175

• Notable movers and shakers: Minnesota Lynx when the season opened-- +6000; as of June 24-- +800; Phoenix Mercury-- +4000/+2800; Indiana Fever-- +2500/+7500

The early 2024 WNBA Championship odds were all about expectations and recent history, with a bit of hope and promise mixed in.

For example, the Las Vegas Aces, as two-time defending champs, were an obvious choice to open as favorites. Thanks to some offseason moves, Seattle started the season with the fourth shortest odds despite their 11-29 finish in 2023.

However, most of that stuff gets thrown out the window when the season starts. What you did last year, how your offseason went, etc., becomes irrelevant. How you play is what matters, and based on how the first 15-18 games have gone, WNBA championship odds have shifted for several teams.

2024 WNBA Championship Odds

Here are the odds for several of the top teams listed at Caesars Sportsbook. Bettors new to Caesars Sportsbook can claim: $1,000 First Bet on Caesars.

WNBA Championship Predictions and Favorites to Win

It may be a little surprising to see an 8-6 team that sits around the middle of power rankings with the shortest odds, but the Las Vegas Aces do get the benefit of the doubt (to a degree).

They have not played like the dominant team they were last season, and several teams have played better than them. But with their roster relatively intact from last season, it would not be shocking to see them work through their issues and play like contenders when it matters most.

Hence, their odds not moving much. However, the level of competition can have an impact as well. While several teams are playing great basketball, many view the New York Liberty as the team most likely to meet the Aces in the Finals (again).

But it is also hard to ignore how well some teams have played. Expectations were low for Minnesota coming into the season, but the Lynx have one of the best all-around teams in the league. While Connecticut is not an offensive juggernaut, their top-ranked defense makes them a serious contender.

Let's take a look at some of the top candidates at this stage of the season (odds via Caesars).

Las Vegas Aces, +135 at Caesars

• 2024 Record (as of June 25): 8-6

• They lost only six games during the regular season last year.

• Averaging  87.2 ppg (second best in WNBA); allowing 84.6 ppg (No. 8)

If anyone thought it would be easy to make history and become the second team in league history to win three championships in a row—well, it isn't. The team has played well on the offensive end of the court overall. But they've experienced some struggles on the defensive end.

From May 31 through June 15, their defensive rating was 108.4; only the Indiana Fever has a worse one (109.1). Despite averaging 85.3 ppg on offense during that timeframe, they lost five of the seven games they played in.  

But as disappointing as their early struggles have been, there is no need for fans and bettors to press the panic button just yet. Had they lost several players from last year's squad, then—yes, it would have been time to panic. Las Vegas has a talented, experienced roster, and with 20+ games still to play, they have plenty of time to work out whatever issues they may have (stats, records, and odds all as of June 25).

Bet on Las Vegas Aces (+135) at Caesars 

New York Liberty, +175 at Caesars

• 2024 Record: 15-3 (best in the WNBA)

• They went 11-1 after losing two in a row in late May.

• Averaging 88.1 ppg (best in the WNBA); allowing 78.4 ppg (third best)

In case there is any doubt, the New York Liberty has an excellent team. They play well on both ends of the court, aren't overly dependent on one player to score points, depth is not an issue, and—well, they are playing and looking like a team planning on returning to the WNBA Finals.

But this time, they will win.

At this point in the season, it looks like the only team with a chance of beating Liberty in a playoff series is themselves. They have an excellent shot at taking home that elusive first WNBA title as long as they don't do anything to beat themselves.

Bet on NY Liberty (+175) at Caesars 

Connecticut Sun, +700 at Caesars

• 2024 Regular Season Record: 13-3

• They opened the season with a franchise record 9-game winning streak.

• Averaging 79.3 ppg (ninth best); allowing 71.7 ppg (league-best)

The Sun is not very impressive on the offensive end of the court, but that may not matter if they can continue to play defense the way they have been. They are the only team holding opponents to less than 40% shooting from the floor and one of two to hold them under 30% from the three-point line.

While the offense does not have a lot of firepower, six players are averaging double digits in points every night, ranging from Tyasha Harris with 10.9 ppg to DeWanna Bonner with 16.3 ppg. The numbers are not eye-popping, but since they are not reliant on one player to score, the offense shouldn't suffer much if someone gets hurt.

Alyssa Thomas is having another MVP-worthy season, averaging close to a triple-double per game (12.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 7.7 assists). But the team is 1-3 vs. the league's other top teams (New York, Las Vegas, Minnesota, and Seattle).

Bet on Connecticut Sun (+700) at Caesars 

Minnesota Lynx, +800 at Caesars

• 2024 Regular Season Record: 13-3

• Only the Washington Mystics (+10000) had longer championship odds to start the season;  the Lynx and Sparks tied for second longest with +6000.

• Averaging 84.5 ppg (third best); allowing 73.8 ppg (second-best)

Losing a player like Diamond Miller early in the season to an injury should not have been easy to overcome. But the Lynx have not only overcome the loss but are thriving. Last season, they averaged 80.2 ppg (fourth best) while allowing 85.1 ppg. Only the Fever allowed more (85.1ppg).

Fast-forward to this season, and they have one of the best offenses and defenses in the league. They have a legitimate MVP candidate in Napheesa Collier and have wins vs. Seattle (two), New York (1-0), and Las Vegas (1-1).

Thanks to a tremendous second-half effort on both ends of the court, they beat the Liberty for this season's Commissioner's Cup.

Bet on Minnesota Lynx (+800) at Caesars 

Seattle Storm, +1200 at Caesars

• 2024 Regular Season Record: 10-6.

• Bounced back from a 1-3 start with a five-game win streak.

• Averaging 82.4 ppg (fourth best); allowing 78.6 ppg (fourth best).

Seattle entered the season with high hopes despite last year's dreadful 11-29 record. But adding two players like Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith to the roster can have that kind of impact.

It took a few games for things to start clicking. But while they are still a work in progress, they are getting better each week. Jewell Lloyd leads the team in scoring and is one of four players averaging double digits.

However, while they are winning games, the ones they are losing are primarily to the other contenders: 0-3 vs. Minnesota, 0-1 vs. New York, and 1-1 vs. Las Vegas. They must figure out how to stop the other top teams in the league to become a true contender.

Bet on Seattle Storm (+1200) at Caesars 

WNBA Championship Winner - My Pick(s)

Frontrunner— Minnesota Lynx +700 at Caesars

If you are going to bet on the Aces or Liberty, now is probably the time to do so, and no one would find fault with your choices if you did. But the Lynx have a solid combination of offense and defense, and they have already proven they can beat the Aces, Liberty, and Storm.

The last two Commissioner's Cup winners went on to play in the Finals.

Bet on Minnesota Lynx (+800) at Caesars 

Dark Horse— Phoenix Mercury +2800 at Caesars

Seattle and Connecticut are worthy of attention, but neither really qualifies as a "dark horse." Phoenix, on the other hand, entered the season with a revamped roster and then got off to a 3-5 start. Only the Fever had a worse defensive rating than they did, and the offense scored just 79.6 ppg (ninth-best).

But in June, the offense has been the third-best in the league (84 ppg), and the defense has been considerably better (99.8 rating, sixth-best). Should the roster continue to gel and play better, they could surprise fans come playoff time.

Bet on Phoenix Mercury (+2800) at Caesars 

Longshots— Indiana Fever +7500 at Caesars

Bettors were all over the Fever before the season got underway, but then it did. However, despite their dreadful start, the Fever are starting to look like a solid team. The offense is coming together, the defense is improving, and they are winning games.

They have a lot of work to do to become a contender, but if they can continue to develop and maybe get a few lucky breaks along the way…

Bet on Indiana Fever (+7500) at Caesars 

WNBA Championship History 

There have been a few periods of dominance by one team in the 27-year history of the WNBA. It all got started in Houston where the Comets won the title in the league’s first four seasons. The Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm are the only other teams to win four titles (not consecutively).

Three teams have won three titles (Detroit, Los Angeles, and Phoenix). The Los Angeles Sparks and Las Vegas Aces are the only teams other than Houston to win back-to-back titles, while four teams have yet to win, the Connecticut Sun, Dallas Wings, Atlanta Dream, and New York Liberty.

Here is a list of WNBA Championship winners:

How to Read WNBA Championship Odds 

Odds for the WNBA Championship are listed with three numbers with either a plus or a minus. Teams with minus odds have a better than 50% chance of winning, but you’ll have to risk more to win less. The odds are what you’ll have to bet in order to win $100.

If a team has -400 odds to win, bettors will need to risk $400 to win $100.

Teams with plus money odds have less than a 50% chance to win, but bettors can win more. When a team has plus money odds, the number is what bettors will win if they bet $100. So, if someone were to bet $100 on the Fever at +2500, they’d win $2600 (their stake plus $2500 in winnings).

You do not have to bet $100 if you do not want to. If you want to see what you can win with the stake you are willing to bet, check out our odds calculator.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the WNBA Championship

Next to choosing a team to bet on, the hardest decision bettors often face is which sportsbook to bet with—and there can be more to the decision than whoever has the best odds. For more on specific sportsbooks, bettors can check out our full sportsbook reviews on our sportsbooks page.

To help you decide, here is a quick side-by-side look at three of the top sportsbooks, according to our reviews: