2024 WNBA Championship Odds & Predictions: Don't Look Now But Indiana Is a Contender

•  There were no surprises in the first round as the top four seeds advanced after sweeping their opponent.

• According to the latest WNBA Championship odds at BetMGM, the New York Liberty has a 58.3% chance of winning the franchise’s first title.

• The WNBA Finals have featured a No. 1 seed every year but two (2006 and 2021).

The first round of the WNBA playoffs has come and gone with no surprises, as the top four teams earned the right to move on to the semifinals. With half of the field eliminated, the WNBA Championship odds for the remaining teams have shifted and could shift again after each semifinal game.

With Game 1 of each semifinal series  (best of five) taking place on Sunday, we have already moved a step closer to the 2024 WNBA Finals.

WNBA Championship odds will change as the postseason progresses and teams get eliminated. We will keep you up to date with the playoffs as they progress, so be sure to bookmark this page and check back for the latest on the WNBA postseason and WNBA Championship odds.

2024 WNBA Championship Odds

Here are the odds for the four semifinals teams listed at at BetMGM Sportsbook. Head over to BetMGM to place your bets: Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets*

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

WNBA Championship Predictions and Favorites to Win

Since the break, anyone who put money down at the beginning of the season on the Indiana Fever has had everyone reason to smile and be happy. After thinking their money was gone after Indiana’s dreadful start to the season, it now looks like that might not be the case after all.

New York, last season’s runner-up, enters the playoffs as the betting favorite. They have been the favorite for much of the season, and as the owners of the best record, it just makes sense that they’d have the shortest odds.

So—should you bet on them? That’s a question each bettor must answer on their own, but what we can tell you is this: the No. 1 seed went on to win the last two titles (both by the Las Vegas Aces) and three of the last five. 

The lowest seed to win is a No. 6 (Chicago Sky, 2021), and the No. 2 seed has won seven times.

But the No. 1 seed has won the most (19).

Does that mean you should go ahead and bet on the Liberty? Not at all. While the No. 1 seed often goes on to win, that is not always the case.

On that note, let's take a closer look at  the four remaining teams (odds via BetMGM):

New York Liberty, -140 at BetMGM

• 2024 Record: 27-13 SU, 21-19 ATS

• Averaging 85.6 ppg (second-best in the WNBA); allowing 76.5 ppg (third-best)

It is one thing to dominate the competition during the regular season, but that doesn’t always translate to success in the postseason. But, so far, for the New York Liberty, it has. They cruised to two easy wins over Atlanta in the first round, and they were never really in danger of losing Game 1 of their semifinal matchup with the Las Vegas Aces.

The Aces beat the Liberty in the Finals last season, but New York swept Vegas during the regular season 3-0.  As for their potential Finals matchups, they took the season series with the Sun 3-1 but lost their series vs. the Lynx, 2-1.

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Las Vegas Aces, +450 at BetMGM

• 2024 Record: 27-13 SU, 21-19 ATS

• Averaging  86.4 ppg (best in WNBA); allowing 80.9 ppg (No. 7)

Like the Liberty, the Ace had no problem getting past their first-round opponent with a sweep of the Storm. But they are already behind the eight-ball in their semifinal matchup with the Liberty after losing Game 1 of the semifinals, 87-77.

Better defense on Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart going forward would help. But so would an MVP-caliber performance from the MVP, A’ja Wilson. While her numbers (so far) in the playoffs are great by anyone else’s standard, for her, they are pedestrian. If they are going to climb back into this series and make a run at a third consecutive title, they need Wilson to work her magic.

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Minnesota Lynx, +450at BetMGM

• 2024 Regular Season Record: 30-10

• Averaging 82 ppg; Allowing 75.6 ppg

The Mercury did not stand a chance in the first round vs. the Lynx as Minnesota scored 102 and 101 points to easily beat Phoenix for the right to move on. However, as strong as the wins were, they were also the worst defensive effort the team has had all season, giving up 183 points.

Their defense got its act together for Game 1 of their semifinal matchup against the Connecticut Sun. But while they held the Sun to 73 points, the offense only chipped in 70. Connecticut did win the season series against Minnesota 2-1, but all three games were won by a total of eight points.

If they move on to the Finals, they will have won the season series against New York 2-1 and 3-1 against Minnesota.

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Connecticut Sun, +450 at BetMGM

• 2024 Regular Season Record: 28-12

• Averaging 80.1 ppg; Allowing 73.6 ppg

The sports world would have gone nuts had Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever beaten the Sun in the first round, but it just wasn’t meant to be. Connecticut swept Clark and the Fever right out of the playoffs. Heading into Game 1 of their semifinal matchup vs. the Lynx, they were the underdogs but pulled out a 73-70 win.

If the Sun advance to the Finals, they’ll face a tough opponent in the Aces or Liberty. The Aces swept the regular-season series 3-0 and lost the series against the Liberty 2-1.

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WNBA Championship Winner - My Pick(s)

Favorite - New York Liberty -140 at BetMGM

The Liberty have been the best team in the WNBA all season long and appear to be that team in the postseason, too. They are getting superstar caliber performances out of Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu and the team is playing well as a team on both ends of the court.

They’ve been the team to beat all season long and still are. But don’t be shocked if they sweep this series and the WNBA Finals.

Dark Horse - Connecticut Sun +450 at BetMGM

We are picking the Sun over the other two teams because the Connecticut defense may be the only one that can contain Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. However, their big issue will be on the offensive end of the court. Can they be trusted to outscore the Liberty or Aces?

 Eh….but if they do make it to the Finals they will make the Aces/Lynx work for it (if the Sun don’t win).

WNBA Championship History 

There have been a few periods of dominance by one team in the 27-year history of the WNBA. It all got started in Houston where the Comets won the title in the league’s first four seasons. The Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm are the only other teams to win four titles (not consecutively).

Three teams have won three titles (Detroit, Los Angeles, and Phoenix). The Los Angeles Sparks and Las Vegas Aces are the only teams other than Houston to win back-to-back titles, while four teams have yet to win, the Connecticut Sun, Dallas Wings, Atlanta Dream, and New York Liberty.

Here is a list of WNBA Championship winners:

How to Read WNBA Championship Odds 

Odds for the WNBA Championship are listed with three numbers with either a plus or a minus. Teams with minus odds have a better than 50% chance of winning, but you’ll have to risk more to win less. The odds are what you’ll have to bet in order to win $100.

If a team has -400 odds to win, bettors will need to risk $400 to win $100.

Teams with plus money odds have less than a 50% chance to win, but bettors can win more. When a team has plus money odds, the number is what bettors will win if they bet $100. So, if someone were to bet $100 on the Fever at +2500, they’d win $2600 (their stake plus $2500 in winnings).

You do not have to bet $100 if you do not want to. If you want to see what you can win with the stake you are willing to bet, check out our odds calculator.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the WNBA Championship

Next to choosing a team to bet on, the hardest decision bettors often face is which sportsbook to bet with—and there can be more to the decision than whoever has the best odds. For more on specific sportsbooks, bettors can check out our full sportsbook reviews on our sportsbooks page.

To help you decide, here is a quick side-by-side look at three of the top sportsbooks, according to our reviews: