Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Prediction: Phoenix Opening as a Five-Point Favorite

Written by: Travis Pulver
Published July 3, 2024
6 min read

It is hard to say who needs a win more in tonight’s Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings game. The struggle has been real for the Wings, which have won just four games (4-15). On the other hand, Phoenix is trying to climb back to .500.

Both have lost their last two games, Phoenix at home and Dallas on the road.

The Wings are only 2-5 at home this season, and the Phoenix are just 2-6 on the road. But someone has to win this game, right? Let’s examine the betting odds for this contest, along with our preview and pick for the game.

Mercury vs Wings Prediction

Mercury vs. Wings Betting Odds for Wednesday, July 3

Phoenix opened as a five-point favorite. Considering how both have played this season, that isn’t shocking. Both have struggled, but the Mercury are on the verge of climbing out of their shell. But the same can’t be said for Dallas, which has gone 1-13 in their last 14 games.

However, the Wings have been competitive with Phoenix in the two games they have played. When they met on May 25 in Phoenix, the Wings won convincingly, 107-92, despite being 4.5-point underdogs.

In the second game (June 9), the Mercury needed two overtime periods to get a 97-90 victory (Phoenix was a 1.5 favorite). So, while it may seem easy to dismiss Dallas and hand the win to the Mercury, bettors and fans may not want to count out the Wings just yet.

Looking for WNBA player props? Check our selection of prop bets for the Mercury vs Wings game tonight.

Here are the betting odds for tonight’s game between the Mercury and Wings, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Head over to FanDuel to place your bets: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Phoenix Mercury-5 (-108)-225O 167.5 (-106)
Dallas Wings+5 (-112)+180U 167.5 (-114)

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Mercury vs. Wings Preview

Tonight’s game will mark the 74th time the Mercury and Wings have played. Of the 73 games in the books already, Phoenix holds the series lead 43-30, but Dallas has won five of the last six. This season, they are 1-1 SU and ATS, with each winning outright and ATS on the road.

Phoenix Mercury Prediction

Losing two in a row is never good, but it is especially disheartening for a team on the rise like the Mercury. In fairness, Indiana is also on the rise and earned the win, and Connecticut is one of the best teams in the league this season and tough for anyone to beat.

But with winnable games coming up against Dallas tonight, followed by a trip to LA to play the Sparks and then back home to face the Wings again, the Mercury have a chance to rise two games over .500 for the first time since they were 3-1.

First, they have to get back to .500 with a win over the Wings.

In the first game, the Mercury played dreadful defense, allowing Dallas to make 50% of its three-pointers (10-20). It is hard to beat any team that does that unless the other team matches that success. While Phoenix was not bad (14-35, 40%), there was a significant difference.

But, at the time, the Mercury also happened to have one of the worst defenses in the league, with a rating of 106.3 (May 14-31). Only Indiana’s was worse. As for the second game (June 9), neither team shot well from behind the arc.

On that day, the Mercury defense had the second-best rating among active teams at 94.7.

Bet on Phoenix Mercury at FanDuel 

Dallas Wings Prediction

Dallas has not played for much of the season, but two of the better games they have played came against the Mercury. Sharpshooting against a weak defense led to a win in the first game. While they put up a solid fight in the second game, they ultimately lost in double overtime.

Why? It certainly wasn’t a lack of defense on their part. While the Mercury had the second-best defensive rating on the day, Dallas had the third-best. They lost because they failed to make their shots, and Phoenix played an excellent defensive game.

However, there was one significant difference between the first and second games. Phoenix did not have Britney Griner in the lineup in Game 1. But she was active and healthy in Game 2, scoring 24 points, nine rebounds, and five assists.

Dallas has to find a way to slow down/neutralize Britney Griner and Kahleah Copper (which is easier said than done). Another big night from Arike Ogunbowale would help; she had 40 and 25 in the first two.

But she’ll need help on the scoreboard from Natasha Howard, Maddy Siegrist, and Odyssey Sims.

Bet on Dallas Wings at FanDuel 

Mercury vs. Wings - My Pick

Dallas made the most out of a lucky day in the first game, but the better team won a hard-fought contest in the second. We expect this game to be another hard-fought battle with a similar outcome. Phoenix has gotten better since Griner’s return and continues to improve each week.

The Wings, however, are floundering. From May 31 to the present, they’ve gone 1-13, thanks in large part to a dreadful defense (league-worst 110 rating in that time frame). When your defense is that bad, teams have to score a lot, and Dallas does not (tenth best in the given time frame, 77.6 ppg).

There is no reason to think Dallas will give Phoenix much of a fight.

Bet on Mercury -5 (-108) at FanDuel 

How to Watch Mercury vs. Wings

  • Location: College Park Center in Arlington. Texas.

  • Game Time & Date: 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 3

  • Coverage: NBA TV

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Travis Pulver

Sports Betting Analyst

Expertise:
NCAAB
WNBA
Betting Picks
Travis Pulver is a lifelong football fan, something he says comes naturally having been born in the football-crazy state of Texas. Through the years, Pulver's love of sports has extended into baseball, basketball, golf, and rugby. Life currently finds him in Indiana with his wife and two kids.
Nationality: American
Education: M.A. in Political Science
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Experience:
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