Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction: Second Clash This Season

Written by: Travis Pulver
Published June 28, 2024
5 min read

The Los Angeles Sparks face the Mercury tonight in Phoenix for the second time this season. A win will end a six-game losing streak for the Sparks. But should the Mercury win, Phoenix can climb back above .500 for the first time since they were 3-2 in late May.

Phoenix has been on the rise in recent weeks; they have gone 4-2 since Britany Griner came off the injured list and made her season debut vs. Minnesota (a game the Mercury won, 81-80). A rough season has gotten more challenging for the Sparks with the loss of rookie Cameron Brink to an injury.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for tonight’s Sparks vs. Mercury game, along with our preview and pick for the contest.

Sparks vs Mercury Prediction

Sparks vs. Mercury Betting Odds for Friday, June 28

When these two teams met in Phoenix on June 2, the Mercury were trying to stop a losing streak-- a four-game slide that put a damper on a solid 3-1 start. Despite their struggles, they were 4.5-point favorites over an LA team with just two wins.

Fast forward a few weeks, and the Mercury is on the verge of respectability, while the Sparks are just trying to take a hard season one game at a time.

Here is the betting line for the game with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Head over to FanDuel to place your bets and claim $150 in Bonus Bets.

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Los Angeles Sparks +9.5 (-112) +410 O 165.5 (-112)
Phoenix Mercury -9.5 (-108) -590 U 165.5 (-108)

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Sparks vs. Mercury Prediction

Los Angeles Sparks Preview

When a struggling team loses one of its better players, it isn't shocking when things go from bad to worse. With Cameron Brink in the lineup, the Sparks' defense was not great, but it did have its moments (defensive rating = 103.6, eighth in the league).

Since losing Brink to a season-ending ACL injury, the rating has dropped to 116.5, the worst in the league (from June 19-27). To be fair, the sample size consists of just two games against the New York Liberty, one of the best teams in the league, on the road.

Phoenix is not on the same level as New York, so the result could be better. But the Mercury dominated the Sparks in their previous meeting this season.

However, it will not matter how good their defense plays if the team struggles to score 80 points (the Sparks average 77.9 ppg, eleventh in the league). They scored 80+ in their last two games but have otherwise done so in only six games (3-3).

The Mercury averages 81.8 ppg and has under 80 five times this season.

Bet on LA Sparks at FanDuel 

Phoenix Mercury Preview

Phoenix is proof of two things: (1) a team can get better during the season, and (2) adding the right player to the lineup can make a world of difference.

With a 3-5 record in May, not much was going right for the Mercury. The defense was struggling (rating was second to last, 106.3), and the offense only scored 79.6 ppg (seventh). But things have taken a dramatic turn for the better in June.

They have had the fifth-best defensive rating (99.8) for the month and the third-best offense (84 ppg). However, the change becomes more apparent when you examine the numbers with and without Britney Griner (who was recovering from an injury when the season got underway)

Without Griner, the team's defensive rating was 103.8 (tenth), but since her return on June 7 vs. Minnesota, it has been 101.8 (fifth). However, on the offensive end of the court, the difference was more significant: 78.6 ppg without Griner (eighth) and 87.2 ppg (fourth) since her return.

Bet on Phoenix Mercury at FanDuel 

Sparks vs. Mercury - My Pick

After seeing the Dallas Wings upset the Minnesota Lynx and the Connecticut Sun needed overtime to beat the Washington Mystics, it is hard not to wonder if lightning could strike a third time. The Wings were 9.5 underdogs and had no business even being competitive with the Lynx; the Mystics were 10.5-point dogs.

The scenario here is similar, except Phoenix is not one of the best teams in the league.

Phoenix should beat LA as badly, if not worse than they did the last time these teams played. The Sparks have regressed, while the Mercury have been improving in just about every facet of the game. Phoenix should cover the spread without too much trouble.

However, we are a little more comfortable betting on the UNDER instead.

Bet on Under 165.5 (-108) at FanDuel 

How to Watch Sparks vs. Mercury

  • Location: Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona

  • Game Time & Date: 10 p.m. ET on Friday, June 28

  • Coverage: ION

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Travis Pulver

Sports Betting Analyst

Expertise:
NCAAB
WNBA
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Travis Pulver is a lifelong football fan, something he says comes naturally having been born in the football-crazy state of Texas. Through the years, Pulver's love of sports has extended into baseball, basketball, golf, and rugby. Life currently finds him in Indiana with his wife and two kids.
Nationality: American
Education: M.A. in Political Science
Favourite Sportsbook: FanDuel Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
Experience:
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