Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction: Massive Line Swing Since Odds Opened

Written by: Travis Pulver
Published July 1, 2024
5 min read

When the Phoenix Mercury hosts the Connecticut Sun tonight, the hometown fans will certainly have revenge on their minds. On May 28, the Sun destroyed the Mercury in the friendly confines of the Mohegan Sun Arena, 70-47.

The Sun were 7.5-point favorites heading into the game. However, with Connecticut dropping three of its last four and Phoenix stepping up their game recently, the Sun are only 2-point favorites heading into tonight’s matchup—but that is not where the odds opened.

Read on to see the betting odds for tonight’s Sun vs. Mercury game and our preview and prediction.

Sun vs Mercury Prediction

Sun vs. Mercury Betting Odds for Monday, July 1

Connecticut has been one of the better teams in the WNBA this season and is currently tied with the Lynx for the second-best record in the league at 14-4. Phoenix, however, is fresh off a loss to the Indiana Fever that saw their record fall back to .500 at 9-9. But when the betting line opened…

The  Mercury were 3.5-point favorites.

But since opening, the line has seen some significant movement. After starting with Phoenix as the favorite at -3.5, the line has shifted so much that the Sun has become the new favorite at -2 as of Sunday night (June 30).

Here are the betting odds for the game with odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when wagering $5.

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Connecticut Sun -2 (-110) -142 O 159.5 (-112)
Phoenix Mercury +2 (-110) +116 U 159.5 (-108)

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Sun vs. Mercury Prediction

Connecticut Sun Preview

It may seem like a strange thing to say about a team that started the season 9-0 and was 13-1 a little over a week ago, but it is true. The struggle has become real for the Sun.

The offense has not been high-scoring all season, so their numbers in that respect are not too shocking. For the season, their offense ranks No. 8 in the WNBA at 79.8 ppg. But with how well their defense has been playing, 79.8 ppg was more than enough.

In their first 14 games (when they were 13-1), the defense had the best rating at 90.8. Teams have scored only 70.7 ppg against them. But the last four games have seen the Sun defense take a turn for the worse. Their rating in their last four games ranks No. 7 at 100.3, and teams are scoring 81.5 ppg against them.

Their offensive production has slipped a little, from 79.8 to 75.8. But that would not be concerning if the defense was performing up to par.

Bet on Connecticut Sun at FanDuel 

Phoenix Mercury Preview

Eight games into a 40-game season is way too early to write a team off, but the 3-5 Mercury did not look like a team that is too competitive this season. But then June ended up being different from May. Things started to come together, and the team went 6-4, bringing their record to .500 at 9-9.

The team has fought hard to overcome its early struggles and appears headed in the right direction. But then they played the Indiana Fever on Sunday. An 11-point halftime lead became a 15-point advantage in the third quarter, but a second-half meltdown led to a 6-point Indiana win.

Griner has been solid since her return and led the team in scoring vs. the Fever with 24. Taurasi has been playing like the savvy veteran she is (19 vs. Indiana). Copper leads the team in scoring and typically does well, but she struggled against the Fever, hitting just three of 15 shots for seven points.

Against a defensive-minded team like the Sun, the Mercury will likely need all three (Griner, Taurasi, and Copper) to have strong nights if Phoenix is to record an upset win.

Bet on Phoenix Mercury at FanDuel 

Sun vs. Mercury - My Pick

One thing is sure: Mercury will not get embarrassed by the Sun in this game like in the last. Since then, Phoenix has improved by leaps and bounds and will absolutely put up a better fight. If they do and the Sun continues to play uninspired defense, fans could see an upset.

Of course, if the Sun gets its grove back on defense, Mercury doesn’t stand a chance.

Neither team is scoring many points right now. Connecticut never does, and the Phoenix defense will ensure it doesn’t in this game, either. While Phoenix has been improving, the Sun defense will remind them that they have a long way to go.

Either team could win this one, but one thing is certain: the score will be low.

How to Watch Sun vs. Mercury

  • Location: Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona.

  • Game Time & Date: 10 p.m.  ET on Monday, July 1

  • Coverage: WNBA League Pass


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Travis Pulver

Sports Betting Analyst

Betting Picks
Travis Pulver is a lifelong football fan, something he says comes naturally having been born in the football-crazy state of Texas. Through the years, Pulver's love of sports has extended into baseball, basketball, golf, and rugby. Life currently finds him in Indiana with his wife and two kids.
Nationality: American
Education: M.A. in Political Science
Favourite Sportsbook: FanDuel Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
17 years
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