Houston Open 2026 Predictions: Time for Thorbjornsen

The Florida Swing produced its usual share of drama and now the PGA TOUR heads to Texas for a two-week jaunt ahead of The Masters.

Plenty of this week’s field have already received their invites from the Green Jackets but others are still trying to punch their tickets to Augusta National.

To secure that, it’s either win here or at next week’s Texas Open or gain enough world ranking points to book a place in the top 50 of the OWGR.

Memorial Park is a municipal golf course reworked by Tom Doak in 2019 with input from Brooks Koepka, who is teeing it up this week.

It’s long for a par 70 and wide open fairways and shaved run-off areas around the greens provide hints of Augusta.

This is just the sixth edition to be held at Memorial Park in the modern era and the previous five winners are listed below.

Min Woo Lee shot the lowest total last year when soft conditions made the course play easier.

• This is the first of a two-week Texas Swing ahead of The Masters

• The lengthy Memorial Park Golf Course hosts again

• Min Woo Lee returns to defend the title while Scottie Scheffler tops the betting

Houston Open 2026 Odds

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Houston Open 2026 Predictions

• Michael Thorbjornsen each-way at +3300 (1/5, 6 places) with BetMGM

• Rasmus Hojgaard to beat Wyndham Clark over 72 holes at -125 with FanDuel

• Stephan Jaeger for Top 10 at +600 with BetMGM

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Last 5 Winners of the Houston Open

Course Notes

• Memorial Park is a par 70 that has five par 3s

• The overseeded Bermuda grass greens are set to run at 12 on the Stimp

• The weather forecast shows sunshine and fairly modest winds

• The last four winners have ranked in the top 3 for Strokes Gained: Putting 

• Min Woo Lee (2025) holds the 72-hole record of 260

• Scottie Scheffler is the joint-holder of the 18-hole course record: 62 (twice)

Favorites to Win the Houston Open 

Scottie Scheffler (+300) at BetMGM

When Scheffler won The American Express on his first start of the season, the majority presumed he’d add to that tally once or perhaps several times before The Masters. But, to great surprise, the World No.1 has not only failed to win, he’s stopped even making the top 20. Scheffler’s top 10 streak ended with 12th at Riviera and on the Florida Swing he could ‘only’ finish 24th (Bay Hill) and 22nd (Sawgrass). There’s a good chance the local Texan gets back to what we expect here given his course form of 2-2-9-2 on his last four appearances.

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Min Woo Lee (+1600) at BetMGM

This was the scene of Lee’s first, and so far only, PGA TOUR win last year. But, make no mistake, the big-hitting Australian is trending towards another ‘W’. He’s 6-for-6 this season with peaks of second place at Pebble Beach and sixth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Everything points to a big defense this week.

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Chris Gotterup (+2000) at BetMGM

The only man to win twice on the PGA TOUR this season is a good course fit so a third win is definitely within the realms of possibility. Those victories came in January’s Sony Open and February’s WM Phoenix Open and although he cooled a little on the Florida Swing, Gotterup was seventh after 54 holes at Bay Hill before finishing 18th. He also posted 18th here last year after improving his score each day: 69-68-67-66.

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Thorbjornsen to Bank First ‘W’

Michael Thorbjornsen had a storied amateur career and he’s already made plenty of waves since turning pro.

And, on the evidence of 2026, a win is imminent.

The 24-year-old American was leading with three holes to play at last month’s WM Phoenix Open before finishing third.

And at the PLAYERS Championship on his last start, he was second with a round to play before running into difficulties on Sunday.

But with two seconds and two thirds already in his fledgling pro career, the door will surely open soon.

A 39th here last year when out of form is a good marker and his big hitting and power game can take him to the title this time.

Thorbjornsen ranks 25th for Driving Distance this season and he’s gained strokes with the putter in four of his last five starts. 

Back him each-way at +3300 with BetMGM (1/5, 6 places).

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Hojgaard to Beat Clark

We landed another 72-hole match bet last week when course horse Corey Conners (14th) outscored Keegan Bradley (55th) at the Valspar Championship.

This week I’ll take Rasmus Hojgaard to get the better of Wyndham Clark.

Hojgaard usually struggles in Florida but did post a top 10 at the Cognizant while playing all four rounds at Sawgrass.

One of the biggest hitters on the PGA TOUR, this course will suit and 32nd last year was a decent debut.

Clark does have some good course form but he just can’t find a spark and a missed cut at the Valspar left him with just one top 40 (a 35th) in his last six events.

This tournament requires good putting and this is where Hojgaard really has an advantage.

The Dane is ranked 12th for SG: Putting this season while Clark is way down in 147th.

Back Rasmus Hojgaard to beat Clark at -125 with FanDuel.

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Jaeger for Top 10

Stephan Jaeger carries the “course horse” tag this week after winning the event in 2024 and finishing ninth and 11th in his two appearances either side.

The German flashed some form with fifth place in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines and then played some great golf over the final 36 holes to post seventh in last week’s Valspar Championship. 

An in-form big hitter who is putting well, Jaeger looks ideal for a Top 10 play at +600 with BetMGM.

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How to Watch the Houston Open 2026

• Tournament: Houston Open

• Location: Memorial Park, Houston, TX

• Date: Thursday, March 26 - Sunday, March 29

• How to watch: Thursday-Friday 3 p.m.-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), Saturday-Sunday 1 p.m.-3 p.m (Golf Channel), 3 p.m.-6 p.m. (NBC/Peacock) And all four days on Sky Sports