The Open Championship 2026 Predictions: Rory to Show his Class

Our PGA Tour expert turns his thoughts to the final major of 2026

• The tournament takes place at Royal Birkdale for the 11th time

• Jordan Spieth won the last edition held there in 2017

• This is the 154th running of the game’s oldest major

The Open Championship 2026 Odds

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Open Championship 2026 Predictions

• Rory McIlroy to win at +800 with BetMGM

• Jordan Spieth to beat Justin Thomas in 72-hole match at -115 with Caesars Sportsbook

• Robert MacIntyre for Top 10 at +350 with BetMGM

Open Championship 2026 Intro

Royal Birkdale in Southport, England has hosted 10 previous editions of The Open and produced a list of storied winners.

Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, Padraig Harrington and Jordan Spieth all have their names engraved on the claret jug after wins on the Lancashire coast while Aussie Peter Thomson won two of his five Open crowns at Birkdale.

It’s one of the most striking venues on the Open rota with its high dunes offering perfect vantage points for spectators. 

And many also say it’s one of the fairest, which is perhaps why the cream always seems to rise to the top. 

Scrambling is a key skill - as it is at most Open venues - while a good week with the putter is also important.  

Looking at some trends, nine of the last 11 Open champions had won earlier that season while 17 of the last 20 claret jug winners had recorded a previous top 10 in the event.

Eight of the last 10 Open winners had posted a top 20 in a major earlier in the season while eight of the last 10 had managed at least one top 10 in their previous three events.

American players have won four of the last five Opens and six of the 10 editions held at Birkdale.  

The weather can dictate scoring. Padraig Harrington won with +3 in 2008 but Jordan Spieth fired -12 in 2017.

Last 5 Winners of the Open Championship

Tournament/Course Notes

• Royal Birkdale is a par 70 and measures 7,223 yards

• The weather forecast suggests more hot and dry conditions following a UK heatwave

• Scrambling has been a key stat in past editions of The Open

• Henrik Stenson’s 264 at Royal Troon in 2016 is the Open’s 72-hole record

• Branden Grace holds the 18-hole Open record of 62 (Royal Birkdale 2017)

Favorites to Win the Open Championship 2026

Scottie Scheffler (+750) at BetMGM

Shock, horror, Scottie Scheffler has missed a cut. The World No.1 hadn’t finished outside the top 25 since 2024 but after a run of 78 events spanning four years his cut run ended at last week’s Scottish Open. While it may be seen as something and nothing, the early exit gives fuel to the idea that this just isn’t his year. Scheffler heads to Birkdale as the Open champion and aiming to become the first to defend the claret jug since Padraig Harrington in 2008. His form in the majors this year reads 2-14-4, a reminder that we judge him to incredibly high standards.

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Rory McIlroy (+800) at BetMGM

After winning back-to-back green jackets to go from zero to two Masters titles, McIlroy will now hope to double his tally of Open wins. It’s 12 years since he won his only claret jug 30 miles down the coast at Royal Liverpool and the Northern Irishman has posted six Open top sevens since. One of those came at Royal Birkdale in 2017 when he closed 69-67 on the weekend to finish in a tie for fourth. Since winning at Augusta, he’s been a little flat but tied seventh at the Scottish Open last week could be ominous.

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Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600) at BetMGM

The Englishman has rocketed to third place in the Official World Golf Ranking in a stellar season that has seen him win three times - the Valspar Championship, the RBC Heritage and the Zurich Classic pairs event with his brother, Alex. He shows no sign of letting up after a second (Canada), a third (Scottish Open) and a fourth (Travelers) in three of his last four starts. Fitzpatrick’s Open record was relatively poor (best of 20th) until he posted fourth at Royal Portrush last year.

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The Open Championship - My Picks

Make it McIlroy   

Will Rory McIlroy really end his career with just a single Open win?

I say ‘no’ and Royal Birkdale which produces elite major winners looks an ideal place for him to grab his second.

There’s a great link between winners at Birkdale and Pebble Beach: Jordan Spieth, Mark O’Meara, Johnny Miller and Tom Watson have all won at both.

So the fact that McIlroy hoisted the silverware at Pebble in 2025 has to bode well.

Winning those two Masters titles has lifted a huge weight off his shoulders in terms of legacy and although he said he had a few things to clear up after his fast-finishing top seven in the Scottish Open, there was much to like about his performance last week.

The clincher is that he was tied fourth at Birkdale in 2017 so McIlroy knows what it takes to thrive here.

Back McIlroy to win at +800 with BetMGM.

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Spieth to Beat Thomas

Last week’s 72-hole match bet landed as +100 ‘dog Nicolai Hojgaard beat Patrick Cantlay (missed cut).

For Birkdale, I’ll side with the match involving good buddies Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas.

While Spieth was winning the claret jug here in 2017, Thomas was missing the cut. 

And, although that’s the most extreme example, it sums up their contrasting records on British links courses.

Spieth has made the top 25 in seven of the last eight Opens while Thomas has finished better than 30th just once (11th in 2019) in his last nine starts in the UK major. 

Maybe Thomas has slightly better current form but Spieth’s far superior record on the links makes him the selection at -115 in Caesars’ pick ‘em.

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MacIntyre to Claim Top 10

Robert MacIntyre has teed it up in six Opens and made the top 10 in three of them.

Given that 50% strike-rate and excellent tied third place in last week’s Scottish Open and the Scots links specialist is a solid bet to make the top 10 again here.

Back him at +350 with BetMGM.

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How to Watch the Open Championship 2026

• Tournament: The Open Championship

• Location: Royal Birkdale, Southport, England

• Date: Thursday July 16 - Sunday July 19

• How to watch: Thursday-Friday 1.30 a.m.-4 a.m. ET (NBC Sports Network, Peacock), 4 a.m.-3.30 p.m. (USA), Saturday 5 a.m.-7 a.m. (USA), 7 a.m.-3.p.m. (NBC, Peacock), Sunday 4 a.m.-7 a.m. (USA), 7 a.m.-2.p.m. (NBC, Peacock). And all four days on Sky Sports.