The Open Championship Predictions, Betting Odds, Top Picks
- This is the 150th edition of the world’s oldest Major
- Historic St Andrews plays host for the 30th time
- Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite while Collin Morikawa defends
The Open Championship Odds
|Rory McIlroy||+900 |
|Xander Schauffele||+1400 |
|Jon Rahm||+1400 |
|Scottie Scheffler||+1600 |
|Jordan Spieth 🥇||+1600 |
|Matthew Fitzpatrick||+1800 |
|Justin Thomas||+1800 |
|Shane Lowry 🥇||+2200 |
|Collin Morikawa||+2500 |
|Will Zalatoris||+2500 |
|Cameron Smith||+2500 |
The Open Championship Our Picks
Jordan Spieth loves links golf, winning the 2017 Open and finishing runner-up last year. Back him for the win at +1600 with Caesars Sportsbook.
Shane Lowry is a huge fan of St Andrews; Matt Fitzpatrick less so. Back the 2019 Open champion to win their 72-hole match bet at +100 with bet365.
Keith Mitchell has played St Andrews plenty due to surprise family connections. Back the in-form American for a Top 20 at +425 with bet365.
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The Open Championship Predictions
The 150th Open Championship takes place at its most revered venue – St Andrew’s in Scotland.
The rhythm of returning there every five years was broken in 2020 due to the pandemic so it’s seven years since the tournament last visited the Old Course.
With advances in technology moving ever quicker there are fears this time that the players could take the course apart.
However, with the 7,313-yard par 72 playing firm and fast and some forecast fresh breezes that could change in direction, St Andrews may not yield so easily after all – especially with all those bunkers (112 in all).
The last three winning scores were -14 (2005), -16 (2010), and -15 (2015) and after seeing the course, Billy Foster, caddie to US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick, thought -18 could be the number.
That’s very similar to what Tiger Woods shot in 2000 although second place then was eight shots back.
St Andrews is unusual in that it features 14 par fours (four more than usual) and just two par threes and two par fives. It’s a flat piece of property overall but there are plenty of bumps that create uneven lies.
Iconic holes? The 1st and 18th have massive fairways and the infamous Road Hole 17th, one of the toughest on the Open roster. The course also has seven huge double greens whose totals rather pleasingly add up to 18.
This will be the 30th edition at St Andrew’s and the betting shows Rory McIlroy as the clear favorite. He missed the 2015 Open here with a leg injury.
Collin Morikawa is the defending champion after winning with -15 at Royal St George’s in 2021.
An extra bonus for punters is that we have added course form from the DP World Tour’s annual Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. St Andrews stages two of its four rounds.
Spieth for the Win
In the last Open Championship at St Andrews in 2015, Jordan Spieth came to the 17th hole in a tie for the lead.
He’d won the first two Majors of the year and was on track for an astonishing calendar year Grand Slam.
A bogey at the Road Hole and then a failure to birdie the short par-4 18th left him one shot out of a playoff.
Since then, Spieth has gone on to lift the Claret Jug after producing some brilliant and inspirational golf to capture the 2017 Open at Royal Birkdale.
He was also ninth at Carnoustie when defending in 2018, 20th at Royal Portrush in 2019 and runner-up at Royal St George’s last year.
In other words, Spieth is a lover of links golf and has a big chance of becoming a multiple Open winner.
While many courses are played in straight lines, hitting from A to B, links tracks require imagination and creativity. Those are Spieth’s strong suits.
Perhaps the course that brings those traits out most in the United States is Augusta National.
Every St Andrews Open winner since 1964 has posted a top three in The Masters so that correlation is deeply ingrained.
And Spieth helps link it further. As well as his second at St Andrews, he has a win, two seconds and two thirds at Augusta.
So many recent Open winners had also posted a victory that same season and came into the event showing good form.
Spieth won the RBC Heritage in April (also held by the coast) and challenged heavily for victory in last week’s Scottish Open before finishing tied 10th.
Back him at +1600 with Caesars Sportsbook.
Lowry Can Outscore Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick had the week of his life at the US Open last month, holding his nerve down the stretch and capturing his first Major title.
That came on a course, Brookline, where he’d also won the US Amateur.
But, unlike plenty in the field this week, he doesn’t have that same love for St Andrews.
Speaking on Monday, he said:
I wouldn’t say it’s one of my favorite golf courses. My personal favorite golf courses have always been regular par ones, tree-lined, Harbour Town, Augusta, Brookline, that style.
He hasn’t played St Andrews in an Open but when he’s contested the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship there his results have been modest – three missed cuts, tied 26th and tied 15th.
Contrast that with Shane Lowry.
The Irishman has a third, a fourth, a sixth and four other top 25s in that event. His scores in the final round which is played at St Andrews: 68-67-67-66-69-68-68.
The more you play it, the more you fall in love with the place, he said earlier this week.
Lowry says winning an Open at St Andrews would be “on a par” with his incredible win on Irish soil at Royal Portrush and he comes into the event with two top 10s in three starts.
Back Lowry at +100 with bet365 to win their 72-hole match.
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Keith Mitchell for a Top 20
Keith Mitchell qualified for St Andrews and then made the surprise revelation that his father was a member there and his sister went to the town’s University!
As a result he’s played the course numerous times and has an advantage that punters would never have guessed.
A closing 66 in last week’s Scottish Open looks a nice build-up and he’s a past winner of the Honda Classic, a tournament that has a bunch of Claret Jug winners on its list of champions.
Add in two top sevens in his last three PGA Tour starts and he’s capable of landing a Top 20 at +425 with bet365.
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The Open Championship How to Watch
|The Open Championship|
|Tournament||The Open Championship|
|Location||St Andrews, Old Course, Fife, Scotland|
|Time||Thursday, July 14 – Sunday, July 17|
|How to Watch||Thursday & Friday 1.30am-4.30am ET (Peacock), 4am-3pm (USA). Saturday 5am-7am (USA), 7am-3pm (NBC), Sunday 4am-7am (USA), 7am-2pm (NBC). All 4 days on Sky Sports|
More Golf Predictions & Odds
Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
Email: [email protected]