Travelers Championship 2020 - Odds, Predictions & Picks

• Dustin Johnson is much happier with his game after an improved display at Harbour Town last week and the numbers suggest his 28/1 odds are too high.
• Bryson DeChambeau has beaten Rory McIlroy by eight and six shots respectively the last two weeks and can take him down again in a 72-hole matchup. 
• Gary Woodland has posted three top 20s in his last four starts and his impressive long-game stats make him a good bet to repeat the feat at +200.

After wins for Daniel Berger at the Charles Schwab Challenge and Webb Simpson in the RBC Heritage, the PGA Tour heads to Connecticut for the Travelers Championship.

Again, no fans will be on site although the players are adjusting to the new norm and the standard so far has been impressive.

It’s a similar field to the first two weeks although World No.9 Patrick Cantlay – who once shot a 60 at TPC River Highlands – makes his first start since the resumption.

Travelers Championship Odds

Odds taken from BetMGM.

The odds are similar to what we saw at Colonial and Harbour Town although Justin Thomas has joined Rory McIlroy at the front of the market.

Thomas has posted T10 (Charles Schwab Challenge) and T8 (RBC Heritage) in the two events since PGA Tour golf returned while he has a third-place at this week’s course from 2016. That said, it’s the only top 25 JT has managed in six visits to TPC River Highlands.

The other notable changes in the betting are the shorter odds for both Webb Simpson and Brooks Koepka.

Simpson played some brilliant golf to score a +3000 win at Harbour Town on Sunday and he’s +2200 to repeat. Koepka is down from +3500 to +2000 after flexing his muscles with T7 last week.

DJ to Hit the Right Notes Again

While the layers are wary of a Koepka comeback, they’ve been slightly less penal on Dustin Johnson’s odds despite him showing a definite return to form at Harbour Town.

DJ shot a pair of 71s to miss the cut at Colonial in the PGA Tour’s comeback event but he fired 68-66-67-68 in the RBC Heritage last week to post T17.

A key stat at TPC River Highlands is Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green as the last four winners of this event ranked 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 5th in that category when hoisting the silverware.

Johnson was 9th for TTG (gained 6.953 strokes) at Harbour Town and also ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee so his long game really did bounce back.

Speaking after Sunday’s closer, the 2016 US Open champ noted: “I’m swinging a lot better. My game feels a lot better. It feels pretty sharp, even though it wasn’t as sharp as I’d like it to be, but I’m moving in the right direction.

“All in all, I’m pretty happy with the week. I’m looking forward to next week. I feel like the game’s in a good spot. I’m swinging well, got a lot of confidence in the game.”

This event usually takes place the week after the US Open which means DJ has played it just once since 2009.

While T31 looks modest, note that he opened that week with a pair of 66s to sit T9 at the midpoint. That he ran out of gas over the final 36 holes didn’t come as a surprise given that he was playing for the seventh week in a row.

He’s coming in much fresher this time and on a course where he can hit driver plenty, Johnson’s odds of 28/1 at BetMGM are appealing. In his usual form, he’d be nearer half that price.

DeChambeau can outgun McIlroy

Bryson DeChambeau is 2-0 in match-ups against Rory McIlroy since golf returned so it’s fairly easy to argue for a third win here.

The American beat the Irishman by eight shots (-14 to -6) at the Charles Schwab Challenge and by six at the RBC Heritage (-17 to -11).

Those are convincing figures so I’m more than happy to play DeChambeau as the ‘dog at -109 (McIlroy is -114 to have the best finishing position).

Beyond those two recent beatings, DeChambeau also has the superior course form. He’s played this tournament for the last four years and improved his position each time – 47-26-9-8.

Those two top tens give him the edge over McIlroy, who posted T17 (2017) and T12 (2018) in his two starts at TPC River Highlands.

But it’s current form that speaks loudest.

As noted, Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green is a key stat and DeChambeau’s long game is in much better shape than McIlroy’s. The game’s new biggest hitter has ranked 1st and 6th in TTG the last two weeks while Rory was 18th and 31st.

Whichever way you come at it, DeChambeau appears to hold all the aces.

Woodland a Bet in Top 20 Market

Perusing past editions of this event shows that prowess in the long game trumps short-game excellence.

And that means TPC River Highlands is a venue where Gary Woodland can do well.

This is his first appearance since T38 in 2016 while he managed T20 the year before. Given the fact he’s since become a major winner, another top 20 seems a more than reasonable ask.

Woodland has posted three top 20s in his last four PGA Tour starts, including T9 at the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago where he ranked 1st for SG: Approach and 10th SG: Tee-To-Green.

A repeat of that strong iron play will serve him nicely and the +200 for Woodland to crack the top 20 looks too big.

Our Picks

In the outright market, take Dustin Johnson to hoist the trophy at +2800 with BetMGM. Bryson DeChambeau is worth a bet at -109 to have a better finishing position than Rory McIlroy in DraftKings’ matchups while the same firm’s +200 for Gary Woodland to make the top 20 is worth a play.