Best MLB Bets Today: Banking on Good Pitchers Against Bad Teams

Today’s slate of games features several matchups between great young pitchers and bad lineups. We are backing the former in most cases, including the three bets we share below.

The odds we use for the below bets are taken from Caesars Sportsbook. Sign up at Caesars today with our promo code WSNDYW to Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens with a $1 wager.

Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:10 PM EST)

PICK: Under 8.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook

We are taking the under in this one due to the pair of 25-year-old pitchers on the mound.

The first is Nationals’ starter Mitchell Parker (3-1, 2.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). The lefty was electric over his first five starts, but was hammered last week against the Mets. While the Reds have some dangerous bats, they are not nearly as talented as New York. We expect Parker to return to form against an easier challenge tonight.

The other is Reds’ starter Hunter Greene (3-2, 2.70 ERA, 0.85 WHIP). The righty broke out in 2024 and has carried that momentum into this season. Expect that to continue tonight against a struggling Nationals lineup. While Washington did hit him well in one start last season, most of the players who did the most damage are gone. The remaining went a combined 2-11 against Greene.

Both of these bullpens carry some risk, but considering the offenses involved and the starters on the mound, we are locking in the under. 

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6:45 PM EST)

PICK: Phillies -1.5 (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook

D-backs starter Merrill Kelly (3-1, 4.41 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) has gotten hot after a rough start to the season, but the rest of his team has been trending in the other direction. The lineup has been missing Ketel Marte, and he managed a measly .222 average over the last seven days. The bullpen has been even worse during that same span, with three pitchers posting an ERA over 10.00.

The Phillies will have one of the hottest starters in the league on the mound in Jesus Luzardo (3-0, 1.73 ERA, 1.07 WHIP). The former Marlin has been incredible with his new team and has allowed just one run over his last two starts. We’re not sure the 27-year-old can keep this up all season, but expect him to stay hot against a struggling Arizona team tonight.

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Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers (8:05 PM EST)

PICK: Under 8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

This is one of our favorite matchups of the week, and we expect it to be a low-scoring slugfest. One reason for that is Seattle starter Bryan Woo (3-1, 3.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), who has posted three consecutive quality starts. One of those came against the Rangers, where he allowed one run over seven innings en route to his second win of the season.

After a slump that lasted over a year, the Seattle lineup is finally seeing the ball well. They have a .292 average over the last seven days, led by a duo of Jorge Polanco and JP Crawford. Julio Rodriguez is still trying to settle in, but that hasn’t stopped the Mariners' lineup from propelling the team to the top of the AL West. 

The Rangers have been trending in opposite directions. While their top young starter will be on the mound in Jack Leiter (2-0, 2.03 ERA, 0.98 WHIP), the 25-year-old is coming off a start where he struggled badly with his command. An early trip to the IL has limited him to just three starts, meaning we don’t have a great read on how much improvement the righty has made.

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