Best MLB Bets Today: The Nats Lineup is Bad, but Kyle Gibson is Worse

The Nationals' lineup has not been good in 2025, but they’ll face Kyle Gibson on the mound, who has been even worse. We are continuing to fade the aging pitcher tonight, and we’ll share why below. We’ll also give you two other bets we’ll be locking in before games kick off today.

The odds we use are taken from Caesars Sportsbook. If you’d like to try Caesars, use promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens” offer.

Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles (4:05 PM EST)

Nationals ML (+126) at Caesars Sportsbook

We are taking this underdog bet primarily because Kyle Gibson (0-2, 13.11 ERA, 2.49 WHIP) will be starting for the Orioles. The veteran hit the IL after giving up nine runs in his season debut, and he hasn’t looked much better since returning. In his last start, he allowed a bad Angels lineup to score five runs on seven hits and three walks over four innings.

Don’t expect the 37-year-old to magically turn things around today. While the Nationals aren’t hitting the ball well lately (aside from CJ Abrams), they have dominated Gibson in the past. They own a .371 average and a .999 OPS across 62 at-bats against the righty. Expect that trend to continue today.

We also like this bet because the Orioles are hitting as poorly as the Nationals. Gunnar Henderson and Ryan Mountcastle have been red hot, and the rest of the lineup is struggling. That will help Jake Irvin (2-1, 4.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and an improving Washington bullpen pull off the upset against Baltimore.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins (4:10 PM EST)

Rays -1.5 (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Injuries have turned former Cy Young-winner Sandy Alcantara (2-5, 8.10 ERA, 1.64 WHIP) from an ace into a liability. After giving fans hope he was turning things around, he has posted a 10.80 ERA and a 2.17 WHIP over his last three starts.

Two of Alcantara’s last three starts came against a great Dodgers team, but he was also roughed up by the White Sox last week. He allowed four runs on seven hits and three walks across 5 ⅔ innings. With his WHIP still wildly out of control, we are fading the former Marlins ace against a Rays team seeing the ball well.

Tampa starter Drew Rasmussen (1-4, 3.38 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) has been far from perfect, but he is putting the team in a position to win. We trust him to do so again against a Miami team batting .216 over the last week.

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Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers (7:05 PM EST)

Rangers ML (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook

One reason why the Rangers are hanging around the AL West lead will be on the mound tonight in Tyler Mahle (4-1, 1.47 ERA, 0.96 WHIP). The 30-year-old has the best season of his career, and we think he will remain hot in Texas, with legendary pitching coach Mike Maddux, who is famous for fixing and improving veteran pitchers. His influence has been evident, with the Rangers posting the third-best ERA (3.21) in the league.  

Astros starter Ronel Blanco (3-3, 4.04 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) will be on the mound to start this one. He has been vastly improved over the last month, but his best work has come at home. He is 0-2 on the road with a 7.11 ERA this season.

We expect both starters to go deep, but trust Mahle to deliver more on Saturday night.

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