Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, October 13

The National League and American League Division Series’ will be trading days until the Championship League Series’ are set. Today, we’ll get our two American League matchups.

I have one best bet for each of Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees.

Read about my betting angles below.

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

• Time: 3:37 p.m. ET
• Moneyline: Mariners +140, Astros -165
• Run Line: Mariners +1.5 (-170), Astros -1.5 (+145)
• Total: Over 7 (+100), Under 7 (-120)

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

My pick: Seattle Mariners ML (+140)

The Mariners blew a massive lead to the Astros in Game 1 on a three-run walk-off home run by Yordan Alvarez, but it’s clear that the Seattle lineup is cooking right now. The massive managerial mistake that allowed Robbie Ray to enter the game should be cleaned up moving forward.

The M’s also get Luis Castillo on the mound, who absolutely shoved in his Wildcard appearance and is a pitcher I trust to have a big start.

The Astros are deadly and will start the best southpaw in their rotation, Framber Valdez. But Seattle is a top 10 lineup against LHPs and there’s value on the Mariners ML at +140.

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Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees

• Time: 7:37 p.m. ET
• Moneyline: Guardians +115, Yankees -140
• Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (-200), Yankees -1.5 (+165)
• Total: Over 6 (-120), Under 6 (+100)

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

My pick: New York Yankees ML (-140)

The Guardians got a good start from Cal Quantrill and some excellent bullpen play. Alas, two Yankee home runs and the Guards find themselves down 1-0 in the series.

The Yankees are so dangerous. They are the best power-hitting team in the Majors, ranking top five in Barrel Rate, Hard-Hit Rate, and Avg. Exit Velocity.

That could be a problem for Shane Bieber. The young righty collected his Cy Young award just 24 months ago, but his batted-ball statistics have been on the rise ever since. He ranks below the 15th percentile of qualified pitchers in both avg. Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit rate. While he pitched to a 2.88 ERA this year, that’s a death sentence against this Yankee lineup in Yankee Stadium.

Plus, Bieber allowed seven earned runs in just 4 ⅓ innings the last time he faced this Yankee lineup in the playoffs, during the 2020 American League Wildcard.

Yankee starter Nestor Cortes, alongside a superb Yankee bullpen, should have no problem shutting down a lineup that has produced a paltry four runs through three postseason games.