Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, May 17

Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles

• Time: 6:35 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Griffin Canning (LAA) vs Kyle Bradish (BAL)
• Moneyline: Angels +118 - Orioles -140
• Run Line: Angels +1.5 (-160) - Orioles -1.5 (+135)
• Total: Over 9 (-115) - Under 9 (-105)

Odds courtesy of Caesars

My Pick: Orioles ML

The Orioles are for real, folks, and they’ve been particularly good at home, where they are 14-7 on the season. Currently, they’ve won five of their last seven games, all coming at home. Baltimore is also 10-3 as a home favorite, which gives the Orioles the third-best winning percentage in baseball as a home favorite. All of that makes us think they’ll keep it rolling on Wednesday.

The Angels aren’t exactly in good shape with Griffin Canning on the mound. The righty is rocking a 6.38 ERA on the season and couldn’t even get out of the fourth inning in his last start. He’s now given up five earned runs in his last two starts, and he’s unlikely to bounce back against a Baltimore lineup that’s started to heat up over the first two games of the series. Plus, the Angels are down to their third-string catcher and just lost Anthony Rendon to the IL. Even with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Angels may not have the firepower to keep up with the Orioles.

To be fair, Kyle Bradish isn’t the most reliable starter either. But he’s held teams to three runs or less in four of his last five starts. The Orioles have also won four of his five starts this season. Bradish will also luck out a little with Trout batting just .182 over his last six games. If that continues, Ohtani won’t have enough help around him to give the Angels a chance to pull off the upset, allowing the Orioles to stay hot at home.

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox

• Time: 7:10 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Marco Gonzales (SEA) vs Bryan Bello (BOS) 
• Moneyline: Mariners +105  - Red Sox -125
• Run Line: Mariners +1.5 (-178) - Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
• Total: Over 9.5 (-105) - Under 9.5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Mariners ML

While the last-place Red Sox have a winning record and have been solid at home this year, they are a mere 6-6 as a home favorite. It’s also hard to believe in them when Bryan Bello is on the mound. Meanwhile, the Mariners are starting to get their act together despite a loss on Tuesday. The Mariners are still 9-5 in May and have a winning record on the road this year, making them an excellent upset pick.

In fairness, the Red Sox have won four of the five games started by Bello this season. But they’ve done it despite him with the young righty having a 5.01 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. He’s been a little better lately, although the Mariners are averaging 5.6 runs per game over their last seven games. Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, Teoscar Hernandez, and Cal Raleigh all appear to be heating up at the same time, and that can be dangerous against a young and inconsistent starter like Bello.

On the other hand, the Mariners have a reliable veteran in Marco Gonzales on the mound. Seattle is 5-2 with Gonzales on the mound this season, including four straight wins. He also has good career numbers against Rafael Devers and Justin Turner, two key members of Boston’s lineup. Plus, the Red Sox have scored just one run three times in their last eight games and have been held to three runs or less five times during that stretch. In other words, their offense has been a little erratic lately, making them vulnerable against Gonzales and the Mariners on Wednesday.

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals

• Time: 7:45 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL)
• Moneyline: Brewers -120 - Cardinals +100
• Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+140) - Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
• Total: Over 8 (-110) - Under 8 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Brewers ML

While the Cardinals have won seven of their last nine games, they aren’t out of the woods just yet. After all, they’re still just 7-14 at home this season. Things get even tougher on Wednesday when they have to face Corbin Burnes and the Brewers. With St. Louis being just 11-19 against teams with a winning record, it’s tough to believe in them against the division-leading Brewers, making the Brew Crew the safe pick on Wednesday night.

Obviously, the Brewers are always going to be a safe bet with Burnes on the mound. Despite one or two hiccups this season, Burnes has allowed two earned runs or less in six straight starts. That includes six scoreless innings in his last start, helping to make Milwaukee 5-3 in games that he started this year. Equally important, Burnes has excellent numbers against most of the St. Louis hitters. The likes of Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, and Willson Contreras are a combined 12 for 75 (.160) in their careers against Burnes. That’s a big chunk of the lineup that Milwaukee’s starter should be able to contain, helping to limit any offense the Cardinals produce early in the game.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a bit of a wild card with Matthew Liberatore making his season debut. The former first-round pick posted a 5.97 ERA over his nine appearances last season and then failed to make the team in spring training. While the lefty has pitched well in triple-A this year, it’s not clear if he’s ready for the big leagues just yet, especially going toe-to-toe against Burnes. Even with the injuries starting to pile up, the Brewers have plenty of good right-handed hitters to throw at Liberatore. Young second baseman Owen Miller has helped to make up for some of Milwaukee’s injured and should help the Brewers give Burnes enough run support to get a win.

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