Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, October 12

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

• Time: 6:07 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: Spencer Strider (ATL) vs Ranger Suarez (PHI)
• Moneyline: Braves -155 | Phillies +130
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+114) | Phillies +1.5 (-135)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Over 8.5 (+100)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. See other MLB Sportsbook for more betting opportunities!

Our Pick: Under 8.5 (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

There is just one MLB playoff game today, but it’s a doozy. The Phillies took the series lead last night after walloping the Braves 10-2. Philadelphia’s six-run third inning helped them secure the victory and gave them a chance to close the Braves out at home. We have seen that the gap between great and good teams has been small in the postseason, which has us looking to the under instead of the run line or moneyline. While both offenses rank among the league’s best, tonight’s pitching matchup signals a low-scoring brawl lies ahead.

The Braves will send their ace to the mound, Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86 ERA). The 24-year-old shut the Phillies down on Saturday, allowing one earned run over seven innings. It was similar to what he saw him do to the Phillies during the regular season. Strider went 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA against their division rival during the regular season, with the Phillies batting just .196 against him. Pitching on the road in Philly during the playoffs is incredibly hard, but we think Spencer’s confidence against this familiar foe will lead to another fantastic performance.

The Phillies will have Ranger Suarez (4-6, 4.18 ERA) starting in tonight’s elimination game. While he is nowhere close to Strider's level, he has a history of postseason success. He owns an impressive 2-0 record and 0.98 ERA across six playoff appearances, four of which were starts. That includes a great outing against Atlanta on Saturday when he threw 3 ⅔ scoreless innings on the road. He was pulled early but allowed just one hit and one walk. We see him delivering a similar performance tonight, leading to a low-scoring battle with Spencer Strider and the Braves.