Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, September 15

Three Fridays are remaining in the MLB regular season. Let’s keep the momentum going and finish the season strong. 

We’ll have picks on WSN for every Friday left on the slate. Make sure to check back weekly through the end of the month for our best MLB bets. 

Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks  

• Time: 9:30 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Justin Steele (CHI) vs Brandon Pfaadt (ARI)
• Moneyline: Cubs (-126) | Red Sox (+108)
• Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+128) | Red Sox +1.5 (-154)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) 

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. See different MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!

My Pick: Cubs ML (-126)

The Cubs have a 2.5-game lead on the Giants for the second Wild Card position. The Diamondbacks are tied with San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Arizona for the last spot in the playoffs. This will be a very competitive game because of the magnitude for both teams. 

We will lean toward the Cubs on the moneyline for a fair price of -126. Chicago has their ace on the mound in Justin Steele. Steele has been sensational this season at 16-3 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. His last start came against the Diamondbacks, where he went seven innings and allowed just six hits with one earned run. 

We expect Steele to be better than Brandon Pfaadt, who will take the ball for Arizona. He is 1-8 with a 6.25 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Over 80.2 innings of work, he has allowed 20 homers. Chicago should take advantage of some mistakes from the young pitcher and steal a tight game on the road. 

The Cubs have a slightly better offense, and their bullpen is more trustworthy at this point in the season. Take Chicago on the moneyline. 

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals

• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola (PHI) vs Zack Thompson (STL)
• Moneyline: Phillies (-132) | Cardinals (+112)
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+128) | Cardinals +1.5 (-154)
• Total: Over 8 (-122) | Under 8 (+100) 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Phillies ML (-130)

The Phillies are leading the National League Wild Card and should cruise right into the playoffs. This team reminds us a lot of last year. They started slow but found their stride at the right time, and talent is all over the Phillies. 

Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies, and he has been solid in 2023. He has struggled in his past two starts, but this is a good chance to get back on track. The Cardinals have given up, and they’re ready for the offseason. 

Nola is 12-9 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. The best part about his game is his strikeout ability, which we should see a lot on Friday. Zack Thompson will pitch for the Cardinals, and he is 5-5 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. 

Over 51 innings, he has limited his homers, but the walks can be an issue. The Cardinals have been hot, but it hasn’t been with offense. They’re winning tight defensive battles. Philadelphia hasn’t been hot, but they’re still scoring runs consistently which will lead to a win in this contest. 

Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Cristian Javier (HOU) vs Zack Greinke (KC)
• Moneyline: Astros (-210) | Royals (+176)
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 (-126) | Royals +1.5 (+105)
• Total:Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110) 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Astros -1.5 (-126)

The Houston Astros are in a prime run line spot. They’re on the road against an inferior Royals club. Zack Greinke can always surprise some people on the mound, but if he makes a mistake, the Astros will make him pay. 

Greinke is 1-15 on the season with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Over 126.2 innings, he has allowed 145 hits and 25 homers. 

Cristian Javier hasn’t been great, but he has been much better than Grienke. The pitcher is 9-3 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 141 innings. Walks can be an issue for Javier, but we trust him against Kansas City. 

The Astros are 45-27 on the road and they have scored 157 more runs than Kansas City. This game shouldn’t be close on Friday. 

Boston Red Sox @ Blue Jays 

• Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello (BOS) vs Jose Berrios (TOR)
• Moneyline: Red Sox (+110) | Blue Jays (-130)
• Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-178) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+146)
• Total: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110) 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. 

My Pick: Over 8 (-110)

The Boston Red Sox road offense drops off compared to the team at home. However, an eight-run total is always worth looking at the over for the Red Sox. Boston is one of the most powerful teams in the league when they’re on, they can hit Berrios. 

Berrios has pitched in three games against the Red Sox this season, and he has a 6.35 ERA with an opponent batting average of .314. Boston hit the ball well on Thursday, and they have momentum coming into this game. 

Brayan Bello is 12-8 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Bello has been one of the best pitchers for the Red Sox this season, but he hasn’t been amazing since July. 

He had an amazing May and June but has fallen into the lackluster culture that’s currently in Boston. In the past 30 days, he has a .282 opponent batting average. 

The Red Sox are 25-17 against the over in division games, while the Blue Jays are 19-17-1. We’re expecting offense in this contest, so we’re going with the over.