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While Aaron Judge’s RBI total sits well below the 131 he had last season, that is primarily thanks to injury. The rest of the Yankees’ lineup hasn’t done him any favors either, as they have failed to live up to offseason expectations. However, they have shown some signs of life over their last few games, including last night when they tagged Arizona for seven runs. Judge finished the game with six RBIs while going 4-4 at the plate. Considering he will face another struggling D-backs pitcher this afternoon, this one will be easy money.
As his stats indicate, Zach Davies (2-5, 6.81 ERA) has had a rough 2023 campaign. He has been unable to miss bats, as evidenced by his brutal 1.61 WHIP. Things have been awful for him on the road (8.10 ERA) and in day games (.310 OBA), which will be the scenario he faces against the Yankees. We see Judge staying hot today, leading to a quick and easy cover.
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While the price isn’t great, we see this as our safest prop bet of the weekend. Nick Pivetta (9-9, 4.48 ERA) has served the Red Sox well both out of the bullpen and as a spot starter. Boston has used the righty exclusively as a starter in September, and he has responded by posting a 4.19 ERA across four starts. The 30-year-old is coming in one of his best starts of the season, where he held the Blue Jays to two runs on four hits over 6 ⅓ innings. Considering the offense he will be facing tonight, we love his chances to add another win to his record.
The White Sox came into the season hoping to contend in the AL Central, but instead, they find themselves eliminated from playoff contention thanks to a brutal 58-96 record. Offensive struggles have been a big reason why. They have scored the third-fewest runs in the league and are dead last in on-base percentage (.294). While Pivetta is far from an ace, he is certainly good enough to handle this soft Sox offense.
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Nobody has been pitching better than Brandon Woodruff (5-1, 1.89 ERA) in September. He has made three starts this month and allowed just one run over 22 innings. The veteran Brewer missed most of the season with an injury but appears to be back to top form since returning in August. His best start of the 2023 season came against the Marlins just a couple of weeks ago. Woodruff threw his first career complete-game shutout against Miami, needing just 106 pitches to get it done.
The Marlins have been playing very well since the All-Star break, but the Brewers have been better. They showed that when they took three of their four games against the Marlins earlier this month. Milwaukee has the third-best record in baseball since the All-Star break, and they suddenly look like a team that could make some noise in October. The Crew had a 12-run inning in their 16-1 win against Miami last night, and we think they will roll to another easy “W” tonight.
The final reason we love this bet is that Marlins’ starter Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.68 ERA) was hammed by Milwaukee earlier this month. The 25-year-old surrendered six runs on ten hits across five innings, leading to a 12-0 win for the Brewers. We like Luzardo’s potential, but he will not be ready to face the offensive juggernaut he will see in Miami this afternoon.
Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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