Best NRFI Bets Today: Merrill Kelly is Back in a Big Way

The Arizona Diamondbacks have seen their ace falter in 2025, but have gotten an unexpected boost from veteran Merrill Kelly, who has been lights out in May. We’ll share why we like him to deliver a clean first inning tonight and two other NRFI bets we love using odds from Caesars. 

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Merrill Kelly vs. Matthew Liberatore (2:15 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook

D-backs starter Merrill Kelly (5-2, 3.26 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) had a rough April, but has been lights out in May. He is 2-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over four starts. The veteran has thrown seven innings in two consecutive starts, and we expect him to do it again this afternoon, starting with a 1-2-3 first inning.

The Red Birds will have Matthew Liberatore (3-3, 2.92 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) starting tonight. The 25-year-old lefty has thrived as a full-time starter in 2025 and has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start since April 7. He’s pitching with a ton of confidence and has delivered gems against some excellent teams.

While both teams rank among the top ten of the league in OPS, it’ll take time for them to figure out this red-hot pitching duo today. 

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Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox - Jack Leiter vs. Jonathan Cannon (4:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook

This matchup features two of the league's worst offensive teams. They both rank in the bottom four in OPS and have shown no signs of improving. With two solid starters on the mound, we expect a quiet first inning.

Texas will start tonight with Jack Leiter (3-2, 4.25 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) on the mound. The team’s top pitching prospect has looked improved in 2025. He’s delivered two consecutive quality starts, and we expect them to post a third tonight on the road, where he owns a ridiculous .128 OBA. 

The White Sox will also have a promising young pitcher starting tonight in Jonathan Cannon (2-5, 3.76 ERA, 1.31 WHIP). He has turned things around across four starts this month, posting a 2.74 ERA. Given the Rangers’ offensive struggles, we expect Cannon to stay hot tonight. 

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• New York Yankees vs. Colorado Rockies - Max Fried vs. Kyle Freeland

Kyle Freeland (0-6, 5.68 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) has been one of the easiest pitchers to fade with YRFI bets. The Rockies starter has been a disaster the first time through opposing lineups, allowing a .321 average. While he is coming off a strong start, he’ll be facing a Yankees team with the best OPS in baseball (.816). Expect his old struggles to resurface, leading to a painful first inning. 

• Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox - Zach Eflin vs. Hunter Dobbins

The Orioles have been heating up at the plate over the last week, posting a .270 average. They’ve been led by Jackson Holliday, who has two home runs and a 1.056 OPS during that span. We expect him to lead a first-inning charge against Red Sox rookie Hunter Dobbins (2-1, 3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). While Boston’s bats haven’t been as hot, they’ll do some damage against Zach Eflin (3-2, 5.08 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), who they own a .904 OPS against over 83 at-bats.

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