Best NRFI Bets Today: Jesus Luzardo Making His Case for the 2025 Cy Young

Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo has looked like a different player since leaving Miami. He’s been nearly unhittable for much of the season, resulting in a 5-0 record with a 2.15 ERA. We are locked in on the lefty for one of our NRFI bets tonight. Below, we’ll share why we love this bet, as well as one other we are locking in.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Chad Patrick  vs. Jesus Luzardo (4:05 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

You may not know Chad Patrick’s (2-4, 2.97 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) name yet, but he’s been a surprising boost for an injured Brewers rotation. While things got a little rockier in May, he has bounced back over his last two starts, allowing one run on seven hits and three walks over 9 ⅓. Innings. While he doesn’t go deep into games, that won’t matter for this NRFI bet.

Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo (5-0, 2.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) has been one of the best pitchers in the league since leaving Miami. He has not allowed more than three runs in a start all season, even in games where he clearly wasn’t at his best. We expect him to stay hot today against a Milwaukee team with a combined .498 OPS against him.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres - Bailey Falter vs. Dylan Cease (9:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook

Nobody has been pitching better than Pirates’ starter Bailey Falter (3-3, 3.47 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). He is 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA in May. That run includes a start against the Padres where he allowed just one run over seven innings, which didn’t come in the first. With a .190 OBA the first time through the lineup, we love Falter’s chances to deliver another clean first inning tonight.

The Padres will have veteran Dylan Cease (1-3, 4.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) starting this one. He’s looked far sharper in May, with a 3.38 ERA over five starts. One of those games came against the Pirates, where he allowed two runs on three hits and three walks over four innings. It wasn’t great, but he did shut the Pirates down the first time through the lineup, delivering a scoreless first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Davis Martin vs. Dean Kremer

The White Sox are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but they have enjoyed success against Baltimore starter Dean Kremer in the past. They have a 1.040 OPS against the starter over 20 at-bats. That means they’ll have a great chance to do some damage tonight, but this isn’t the main reason we love this bet.

Chicago starter Davis Martin (2-5, 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) is having the best season of his young career, but he continues to struggle badly the first time through a lineup, with a .278 OBA. We expect him to get in trouble early again today as he faces a great Orioles lineup that is finally starting to get hot.

• Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Michael Soroka vs. Brandon Pfaadt

This game features one of the worst pitching matchups of the weekend. Michael Soroka (1-3, 5.61 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.90 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). 

While the Pfaadt has decent season stats, he has fallen apart in May, with a 5.40 ERA over five starts. The Nationals' lineup isn’t great, but they have some talented young bats at the top that will challenge the Arizona starter early on tonight.

Soroka isn’t having a great season, but he has been solid in the first inning. We expect that to change tonight against a great D-backs lineup that owns a 1.031 OPS against him over 40 at-bats.

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