Best NRFI Bets Today: Fourth of July

Saturday's MLB slate features several games where the starting pitching takes center stage. It’s the Fourth of July, and nothing pairs better with America’s birthday than baseball. 

The Phillies and Royals square off behind two dependable starters, while the Brewers and Diamondbacks feature a familiar veteran returning to form.

Best NRFI Bets for Saturday, July 4

Odds for today's NRFIs are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Sign up for a DraftKings account today and claim your welcome bonus: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly. More info on this offer can be found in our detailed DraftKings Sportsbook review.

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Brewers vs. Diamondbacks - Brandon Woodruff vs. Merrill Kelly (9:40 PM EST)

Brandon Woodruff has looked like his old self every time he's taken the mound this season.

Under 0.5 Run (+100)

The veteran right-hander owns a 2.59 ERA and an excellent 0.84 WHIP across 41.2 innings. He's surrendered just 26 hits while striking out 41 batters, consistently keeping opposing hitters from creating early scoring chances. 

When Woodruff is locating his fastball, he remains one of the better first-inning pitchers in baseball.

Merrill Kelly's overall numbers haven't been nearly as sharp, but Arizona will only need one clean inning from him to cash this ticket. If he can keep Milwaukee from finding an early extra-base hit, Woodruff should do the rest.

Woodruff gives this matchup a high floor, making the NRFI worth backing despite Kelly's struggles.

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Red Sox vs. Angels - Sonny Gray vs. Sam Aldegheri (9:38 PM EST)

Sonny Gray has quietly put together one of the best seasons of any starter in the American League.

Under 0.5 Run (-125)

Sonny Gray enters Saturday with a 9-1 record, a 2.69 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP over 83.2 innings. He's allowed only 72 hits while consistently pitching ahead in counts, making it difficult for opposing lineups to build early momentum.

Sam Aldegheri has experienced more ups and downs, but he's flashed enough potential to believe he can navigate one trip through Boston's lineup. His ability to mix pitches effectively should help keep hitters off balance during the opening frame.

Gray is the difference-maker here, and that's enough for me to back another NRFI.

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Phillies vs. Royals - Jesus Luzardo vs. Michael Wacha (8:10 PM EST)

This matchup features two veterans who have quietly delivered productive seasons.

Under 0.5 Run (+100)

Jesus Luzardo has struck out 116 batters across 97.1 innings, continuing to showcase some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in the National League. Although he has worked around traffic at times, his strikeout ability allows him to escape jams before they become costly.

Michael Wacha continues to be one of the steadiest arms in Kansas City's rotation. The veteran owns a 3.31 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 108.2 innings while limiting opponents to fewer than a hit per inning. His experience and command make him a reliable option to handle the top of Philadelphia's order.

With both starters capable of working efficiently early, this is another strong NRFI target.

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Best YRFI Bet

• Marlins vs. Athletics - Sandy Alcantara vs. Aaron Civale

  This is my favorite YRFI play of the day. Aaron Civale has struggled to keep hitters off the bases, posting a 5.05 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP while allowing 87 hits in just 67.2 innings. The game is also being played in a minor league stadium with shorter dimensions, creating an even better environment for early offense.

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