Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Hidden Home Run Targets in Monday’s Limited Schedule

Picking home run targets is a little tougher than usual because there are only six games on the schedule. Even if we wanted to, we couldn’t just bet on the usual suspects to go yard.

However, after digging deep and examining all six games closely, we managed to come up with four home run targets we like.

For more daily MLB coverage, check our selection of the Best NRFI Bets Today.

Best Home Run Predictions for Monday, May 11

Odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for a FanDuel account and claim your bonus: Bet $5, Get up to $1,000 in Bet Resets. Read more about this offer in our FanDuel Promo Code overview.

If you are in a state where FanDuel is not yet legal, we recommend trying Kalshi, one of the best prediction markets in the US. Sign up using Kalshi promo code WSN to get a $10 bonus after making 100 contracts.

Home Run Picks for Monday, May 11

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Pete Alonso Anytime Home Run (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Alonso is in the kind of groove that makes him a viable home run target just about every day. Granted, he went hitless on Saturday and Sunday, but he still has four home runs in 10 games since the calendar flipped to May. Two of those home runs came against the Yankees, who Alonso and the Orioles host on Monday.

The matchup with lefty Ryan Weathers should play in Alonso’s favor. While it’s a limited sample size, Alonso is 2 for 4 with a home run in his career against Weathers. Oddly enough, Alonso hasn’t mashed against lefties this season the way he has in the past. On the other hand, Weathers has already allowed six home runs this year, all against right-handed hitters, putting Alonso in a good spot.

Bet $5 at FanDuel, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins

Corbin Carroll Anytime Home Run (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook

After a hot start to the season, it’s been all downhill for Carroll after missing a few games with a back problem. But he’s started to turn things around, going 4 for 15 with two extra-base hits, including a home run, over his last four games. With 31 home runs last season, Carroll has a surprising amount of power when things are going well for him.

Naturally, a matchup against Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers is working in Carroll’s favor on Monday. He’s 5 for 13 with three extra-base hits, including a home run in his career against Eovaldi. The kicker is that Eovaldi has already allowed 10 home runs this season, eight of which have been hit by left-handed hitters. That makes Eovaldi particularly vulnerable against Carroll.

Get $150 in Bonus Bets at FanDuel With a $5 Winning Wager

Luke Raley Anytime Home Run (+390) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Raley isn’t exactly a household name, especially compared to some of Seattle’s other sluggers. But his eight home runs lead the Mariners this season, showing more power in 2026 than both Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez. In fact, Raley just had a two-homer game on Friday and is 3 for 10 with three home runs over the last week.

Of course, Raley is mostly playing against right-handed starters, hitting all eight of his homers against righties. That means he’ll be in the lineup on Monday when the Mariners face Peter Lambert and the Astros. It’s a small sample size, but Raley is 3 for 3 with a triple and a home run in his career against Lambert, which is enough to make him a top target given Monday’s limited schedule.

Win a $5 Wager at FanDuel, Get $150 in Bonus Bets

Casey Schmitt Anytime Home Run (+490) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Schmitt is another player we probably wouldn’t look at if not for Monday’s limited schedule. However, he’s been San Francisco’s best power hitter early in the season with six home runs. Two of those home runs have come in his last five games, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more home runs on the horizon.

On Monday, Schmitt and the Giants have an interesting matchup against Roki Sasaki and the Dodgers. Sasaki is yet to face the Giants, so nobody on San Francisco’s roster has seen him before. However, Sasaki has been plagued by the long ball, already giving up eight home runs this season. Right-handed hitters have a far betting sluggering percentage against him, and since five of Schmitt’s home runs have come against righties, this is a favorable matchup for him.

Grab $150 in Bonus Bets With a $5 Correct Bet at FanDuel