Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect the Astros to Fall Hard Back Down to Reality

With George Kirby on the mound, negative regression looms large over the Houston Astros offense as they face off against an arm who excels at avoiding contact. Before their opening pitch takes place, we turn our attention towards the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays with both struggling lineups battling it out against a pair of AL Cy Young award contenders. Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan have both seen their AL Cy Young award odds shorten recently as they continue to dominate the divisional landscape.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today.

Best NRFI Bets for Monday, May 11

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Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros - George Kirby vs. Peter Lambert (8:10 PM, EST)

Expect no runs to be scored in the first inning in an AL West divisional matchup between Seattle and Houston, pitting two pitchers against each other who give up Hits at a very low rate. With George Kirby facing off against Peter Lambert, current AL West odds suggest a defensive battle is likely to dominate the series opener.

Under 0.5 Run (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, the Houston Astros have struggled to string together their wins, crashing down to last place in the AL West division standings. Even during their cold stretch, their offense has still been able to play at a high level, ranking in the top-10 in Hit Rate and in On Base Percentage.

Unfortunately for the Astros, their offense will struggle to recapture the same success they had earlier in the season in their matchup against Seattle as they face off against George Kirby who is averaging an ERA of 2.94 and a WHIP of 1.096. Especially with the Mariners back end narrowing the width of the Astros gaps in the outfield, fielding a group who ranks sixth in Fielding Percentage.

Battling it out against Kirby is Peter Lambert, a productive arm in the Astros rotation who is averaging a FIP of 2.82 and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. With the Mariners lineup ranking below league average in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics, expect Lambert to continue to thrive on the mound and keep a clean sheet in the first inning.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Drew Rasmussen vs. Kevin Gausman (7:07 PM, EST)

Drew Rasmussen is in a position to build on his momentum against Toronto, taking advantage of an offense who struggles to advance their runners into scoring position.

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After making an appearance in the World Series last year, the Toronto Blue Jays have struggled to carry over their success into this season, sitting 8.5 games back from Tampa Bay for first in the AL East. Their inability to score brings in a high amount of negative variance into their contests, ranking in the bottom ten in RBIs, Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Consequently, their World Series odds have plummeted as bookmakers lose faith in the team's stagnant offense.

In a AL East divisional matchup against the Rays, expect the Blue Jays struggles on offense to continue to persist as they face off against Drew Rasmussen who is averaging a WHIP of 0.927. Rasmussen’s dominance on the mound stems from his Whiff Rate, generating less than one Hit Against and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. This high-stakes matchup is particularly significant for bettors monitoring the latest AL East odds, as the Yankees remain the heavy favorites while the Blue Jays look to maintain their position as the primary challengers.

On the other end, Kevin Gausman will have the opportunity to match Rasmussen’s output, exploiting a Rays offense who also resides in the bottom half of the board in RBIs and in Runs Scored. Even with his back end underwhelming in coverage, Gausman excels at putting opposing batters in low quality contact scenarios, averaging less than one Hit Against per inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles - Ryan Weathers vs. Brandon Young - With Brandon Young on the mound, the Yankees will be able to make contact at a more consistent rate, battling it out against an arm who is averaging a FIP of 4.82 and a Baltimore defense who ranks near dead last in Defensive Efficiency.

• Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers - Michael Soroka vs. Nathan Eovaldi - Expect the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers to open up the scoring early on in their contest, facing off against a pair of arms who both average an ERA higher than 4.00 while generating less than one Strikeout per inning.

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