Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Banking on the Cubs Cold Streak Continuing

After an incredible run to open May, the Cubs have gone in the tank in a big way. They are losing their last five games, and nine of their last 11, a drastic slump that is causing their NL Central odds to plummet. While the lineup is too good for this to last, there is little reason to believe that will change today with Jameson Taillon on the mound.

We’ll share which Astros slugger we’re targeting to go deep in this game, along with two other home run predictions for today.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Friday, May 22

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Home Run Picks for Friday, May 22

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Yordan Alvarez Anytime Home Run (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Astros slugger has cooled off in May, but he remains fifth in the league with 15 home runs. While this price for a slumping star like Alvarez is not something we usually do, there is one key reason why we’re confident he’ll break out of it this afternoon. 

The reason for backing Alvarez today is Cubs starter Jameson Taillon (2-3, 4.97 ERA, 1.20), who will be on the mound. The veteran righty has allowed more home runs than any other MLB pitcher so far, thanks to surrendering five to the White Sox in his last outing. He has now allowed multiple home runs in five of his previous eight starts.

Alvarez has also fared well against Taillon over 12 career at-bats, posting four hits and one home run. Considering Taillon’s struggles with home runs in years past and his erratic outings this season, we are confident the Astros star will take him deep tonight.

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Jordan Walker Anytime Home Run (+290) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jordan Walker continues to lead the Cardinals to surprising success in 2026. He is batting .295 and leads the team with 13 home runs, four of which have come in May. While he’s been better at home, his power has translated to the road to start the season.

Walker is becoming a more popular home run bet, but there is an extra reason to take him tonight with Chris Paddack (0-5, 7.07 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) on the mound. The righty was horrible for the Marlins to start the season, before being traded to the Reds. While he looked far sharper in his debut, his career numbers suggest that won’t last.

Once Paddack exits the game, he’ll turn things over to a bad Reds bullpen. They have the fifth-highest ERA (4.98) and allowed the second-most home runs (29).

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Ketel Marte Anytime Home Run (+410) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It’s been a slow start to the season for the Diamondbacks star, who owns an ugly .702 OPS. However, things have been turning around of late. Over his last four games heading into Thursday, Marte has gone 8-16 with a pair of home runs. While the streak can’t last forever, it shows the struggles haunting him to start the season are now gone. 

Marte will be facing Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano (4-3, 4.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), which is another reason to lock in this home run prop bet. While he was good against Arizona last weekend, he’s been hit harder when on the road, where he’s allowed six of his nine home runs.

While the 36-year-old made his MLB debut last season, we saw enough to see his struggles to keep the ball in play. He allowed a whopping 33 over 30 starts last season, with his biggest struggles coming against left-handed hitters. Marte is a switch-hitter, making him very dangerous for the starter.

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