NL Central Winner Odds, Predictions & Picks 2024: Positive Regression Looms Large for the Reds

• Both the Chicago Cubs and the St Louis Cardinals are the favorites to win the NL Central

• The Reds are still within a game of second place while playing well below expectations

• The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently in first place in the NL Central, yet still last on the odds board

The NL Central division title race was widely expected to be one of the more wide-open races when compared to the rest of the league, and it has so far not disappointed since the start of the regular season. The projected favorite St Louis Cardinals are currently in last place while the Pittsburgh Pirates have played well above preseason expectations and have a commanding lead for first. Everyone else is currently in a three-way tie for second place, already illustrating how close this race may be until the very end of the season.

MLB NL Central Winner Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Click on the odds in the table below to head to FanDuel sportsbook and place your bets. Get a $150 bonus when you sign up at FanDuel Sportsbook and place your first wager of $5 or more. 

MLB NL Central Predictions and Favorites to Win

Chicago Cubs +230 at FanDuel

Depending which sportsbook you look at, either the Chicago Cubs or the St Louis Cardinals are the favorite to win the NL Central. In terms of longest available odds, the Cubs are the favorite even while underwhelming to start regular season play. Luckily for them, the Cardinals have been just as equally as underwhelming with both favorites sitting well below first place. Still, the season is young and there is plenty of time for the Chicago Cubs to turn it around. Baseball projection sight PECOTA has the Cubs one game within first place, narrowing the gap since the start of the season. Should they want to make a run, then their pitchers need to find answers in a pinch as they currently rank below average in combined ERA.

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St Louis Cardinals +300 at DraftKings

As previously mentioned, the Cardinals are still the favorite to win the NL Central depending which sportsbook you look at. A surprise to see how awful they have played so far, ranking last in the division in both key batting and pitching stats. The Cardinals have started the year well below average in Total Hits, Earned Runs, RBI’s, and pitching ERA. Simply put, both sides of the field have been utterly miserable. Even amidst a slow start, both PECOTA and FanGraphs have the Cardinals winning the division. Their gap to do so has drastically narrowed, but there is still plenty of season left for them to turn it around.

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Milwaukee Brewers +450 at DraftKings

One of the teams who have helped narrow the gap per season-long projections have been the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers were in large part projected to regress this season, yet have managed to get off to a hot start even while dealing with key injuries to their pitching staff. With the Brewers starting out the season on a winning note, they have bought some time for star ace pitcher Devin Williams to make his return as their dominant ace without sacrificing too much of a division-standing deficit. With Williams still on the 60 Day-IL, the Brewers are still a pass for now but are worth monitoring should they manage to stay competitive in his absence in a wide-open NL Central race.

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Pittsburgh Pirates +700 at FanDuel

Talk about playing well above preseason expectations. The Pittsburgh Pirates were projected closer to finishing dead last in the MLB rather than actually having a lead for the NL Central. Their hot start has resulted in a 9-2 record, sitting three wins above the slog for second place. The Pirates hot start can be attributed to both sides of the field as they have been well above average in both key batting and pitching stats. Still, the unfortunate reality is that negative regression looms large per projections, having the Pirates still finishing comfortably in last place. They have managed to slash their odds nearly in half since the start of the season, but they are still priced in last place for a reason. Avoid the Pirates with negative regression looming large.

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Who Will Win the NL Central in 2024? 

My Pick - Cincinnati Reds (+440) at FanDuel

While the previously mentioned Pirates have played well above expectations, the Cincinnati Reds have gotten off to a rough start. This is in large part of their pitching staff, playing well below average in terms of team ERA and WHIP. This was a worrisome area heading into the season, but the Reds eccentric batting lineup has managed to keep them afloat with a 6-4 start. More intriguing yet, the Reds would actually be in a tie for first if it wasn’t for a head-scratching hot start from the lowly Pirates. PECOTA still has the Reds comfortably in the mix for the NL Central, making them a buy at a price that mirrored their preseason odds. Take the Reds now with hedge intentions in mind if other teams’ prices continue to grow due to continued underwhelming play.

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NL Central Winner History 

With the NL Central division more wide open than ever, we may see another new winner as no one has repeated as an NL Central division winner since the Chicago Cubs did it back in 2016-2017. The Brewers are the reigning champions but are dealing with injuries that may put them too far behind by the time they get back to full health. Luckily for them, the projected favorites Cubs and Cardinals have both gotten off to a slow start, leaving the door open for the Brewers to remain competitive in the standings for the time being.

NL Central Winners

How to Read NL Central Winner Odds 

When looking to make any type of wager, it’s key to know how the listed odds work before placing it. While no one in this division has a minus sign in front of them (-130 for example), you may see that in the middle of the season should someone pull ahead in the standings. At -130 odds, that means you would need to wager $130 to win $100. If you were to take the Reds at +400 right now, then that means a $100 wager would profit you $400 if they were to win the NL Central.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the NL Central

With the NL Central pegged to be a tight race until the very end, it’s vital to have as many sportsbooks as you can get in order to line shop. The goal of betting on this division is to get the biggest pieces as hedges while having multiple profiting scenarios. Starting with the Reds, you can find them as high as +440, while their lowest listed odds are +400. That is a $40 difference in profit for a $100 bettor. Each sportsbook also has their own unique new user promotions, giving their users a major head start with bonus bets during the MLB season.

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

Check Out Other MLB Division Futures

• AL East Winner 2024

• AL Central Winner 2024 

• AL West Winner 2024 

• NL East Winner 2024

• NL West Winner 2024