Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Alvarez Set Up for Big Day Against a Familiar Foe

The Houston Astros are making a run towards the top of a weak AL West, a surge that is causing a noticeable shift in the latest AL West odds thanks largely to the bat of Yordan Alvarez. The slugger has provided consistency as the team navigated injuries, keeping them firmly in the division race. With Alvarez starting to heat up once again and a familiar face on the mound, we love his chances to go deep on Thursday.

Below, we’ll share why we are backing Alvarez, along with two other home run predictions.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Thursday, May 28

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, May 28

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Zach Neto Anytime Home Run (+490) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Angels’ exciting young star has started to heat up over the last week, posting a .995 OPS. While his average and OBP aren’t great, he has consistently flashed some serious power. Injuries have prevented him from joining the 30+ home run club, but he is looking healthy and on pace to do so in 2026.

A big reason we like Neto tonight is Tigers’ starter Jack Flaherty (0-6, 5.94 ERA, 1.66 WHIP), who is on one of the worst runs of his career. The Tigers have lost their last seven starts, with the righty going 0-6 with a 7.33 ERA. He has also started to struggle to keep the ball in the park, allowing seven home runs during the extended slump.

It is also worth mentioning that Neto has homered at the Tigers’ Comerica Park in two consecutive seasons.

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Pete Alonso Anytime Home Run (+360) at FanDuel Sportsbook

After a start to his career in Baltimore, Pete Alonso has returned to form in May. He’s batting .275 with six home runs and 20 RBIs so far, continuing from where he left off during his 2025 All-Star campaign. With one of his favorite opponents taking the mound, Alonso will keep his hot bat going today.

The Blue Jays will be sending veteran Patrick Corbin (2-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) out to start against the O’s. While he is struggling to miss bats, the lefty has only allowed four home runs over 44 ⅓ innings. While it's an impressive streak, the long ball is something Corbin has struggled with throughout his career.

 That suggests it won’t last, and there is an extra reason to believe it will change tonight.

There is little doubt that one of the Polar Bear’s favorite pitchers is Corbin. The two have met 52 times, with Alonso posting a 1.172 OPS and five home runs. Considering the 36-year-old’s rapidly rising WHIP, all signs point to a spike in the ERA coming soon.

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Yordan Alvarez Anytime Home Run (+290) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Astros seem to be turning things around late in May, causing a noticeable stir in the latest World Series Predictions, and Yordan Alvarez is a big reason why. The 2022 World Series MVP leads the team in average and ranks in the top five of the league in home runs and OPS.

While his bat cooled off in May, it has woken back up in a big way against Texas. He smacked three home runs over the first two games, and saw his average climb back above the .300 mark.

We fully expect Alvarez’s bat to stay hot today as he faces veteran Nathan Eovaldi (5-5, 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). The 36-year-old continues to thrive for Texas, and has been electric in May after allowing just four runs over his last three starts. However, one problem continues to nag the veteran righty: left-handed hitting.

Eovaldi has been hammered hard by lefties, who have accounted for eight of the 11 home runs he’s allowed. It’s been an issue over his career, including during his best campaigns. It’s also led to him struggling against Alvarez over their 23 matchups, with the Astros slugger batting .522 with two home runs.

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